Skeptical Science New Research for Week #8 2024

Posted on 22 February 2024 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack

Open access notables

Transition from positive to negative indirect CO2 effects on the vegetation carbon uptake, Chen et al., Nature Communications:

Here we investigate how the impacts of eCO2-driven climate change on growing-season gross primary production have changed globally during 1982–2014, using satellite observations and Earth system models, and evaluate their evolution until the year 2100. We show that the initial positive effect of eCO2-induced climate change on vegetation carbon uptake has declined recently, shifting to negative in the early 21st century. Such emerging pattern appears prominent in high latitudes and occurs in combination with a decrease of direct CO2 physiological effect, ultimately resulting in a sharp reduction of the current growth benefits induced by climate warming and CO2 fertilization. Such weakening of the indirect CO2 effect can be partially attributed to the widespread land drying, and it is expected to be further exacerbated under global warming.

Real-world time-travel experiment shows ecosystem collapse due to anthropogenic climate change, Li et al., Nature Communications

Predicting climate impacts is challenging and has to date relied on indirect methods, notably modeling. Here we examine coastal ecosystem change during 13 years of unusually rapid, albeit likely temporary, sea-level rise ( > 10 mm yr−1) in the Gulf of Mexico. Such rates, which may become a persistent feature in the future due to anthropogenic climate change, drove rising water levels of similar magnitude in Louisiana’s coastal wetlands. Measurements of surface-elevation change at 253 monitoring sites show that 87% of these sites are unable to keep up with rising water levels. We find no evidence for enhanced wetland elevation gain through ecogeomorphic feedbacks, where more frequent inundation would lead to enhanced biomass accumulation that could counterbalance rising water levels. We attribute this to the exceptionally rapid sea-level rise during this time period. Under the current climate trajectory (SSP2-4.5), drowning of ~75% of Louisiana’s coastal wetlands is a plausible outcome by 2070.

The importance of crowdsourced observations for urban climate services, Mitchell & Fry, International Journal of Climatology:

Crowdsourced observation networks are typically much more dense than those maintained by National Meteorological Services, and sample a much wider range of local climates. This offers an opportunity to build observed climatologies that are more representative of lived experience, particularly in cities. This study provides a worked example to show their potential for improving operational climate services, and to identify the challenges to realizing that potential. To demonstrate the concept, data from personal weather stations, obtained through citizen science, are used to build an observed record of daily maximum temperatures in 2020 in Manchester (UK). This record is compared to the standard baseline used in a current climate service, showing a substantial increase in the estimated heat hazard. If such potential benefits are to be realized in a climate service, it will be necessary to first build an alternative observed baseline of decadal length and at national or international scale. 

Widespread and increasing near-bottom hypoxia in the coastal ocean off the United States Pacific Northwest, Barth et al., Scientific Reports:

During summer 2021, an unprecedented number of ship- and underwater glider-based measurements of dissolved oxygen were made in this region. Near-bottom hypoxia, that is dissolved oxygen less than 61 µmol kg−1 and harmful to marine animals, was observed over nearly half of the continental shelf inshore of the 200-m isobath, covering 15,500 square kilometers. A mid-shelf ribbon with near-bottom, dissolved oxygen less than 50 µmol kg−1 extended for 450 km off north-central Oregon and Washington. Spatial patterns in near-bottom oxygen are related to the continental shelf width and other features of the region. Maps of near-bottom oxygen since 1950 show a consistent trend toward lower oxygen levels over time. The fraction of near-bottom water inshore of the 200-m isobath that is hypoxic on average during the summer upwelling season increases over time from nearly absent (2%) in 1950–1980, to 24% in 2009–2018, compared with 56% during the anomalously strong upwelling conditions in 2021. Widespread and increasing near-bottom hypoxia is consistent with increased upwelling-favorable wind forcing under climate change.

Offshoring emissions through used vehicle exports, Newman et al., Nature Climate Change:

Policies to reduce transport emissions often overlook the international flow of used vehicles. We quantify the rate at which used vehicles generated CO2 and pollution for all used vehicles exported from Great Britain—a globally leading used vehicle exporter—across 2005–2021. Destined for low–middle-income countries, exported vehicles fail roadworthiness standards and, even under extremely optimistic ‘functioning-as-new’ assumptions, generate at least 13–53% more emissions than scrapped or on-road vehicles.

Translating climate risk assessments into more effective adaptation decision-making: The importance of social and political aspects of place-based climate risk, Kythreotis et al., Environmental Science & Policy:

Climate risk continues to be framed ostensibly in terms of physical, socio-economic and/or ecological risks, as evidenced in the 2012 and 2017 UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) evidence reports. This article argues that framing climate risk in this way remains problematic for the science-policy process, particularly in ensuring adequate climate risk assessment information translates into more effective adaptation decision-making. We argue how climate risk assessments need to further consider the social and political aspects of place-based climate risk to ensure more effective adaptation policy outcomes. 

From this week’s government/NGO section:

Carbon Clean 200®: Investing In a Clean Energy Future 2024 Performance Update, Heaps et al., As You Sow:

The Clean200 lists the 200 major corporate players from 35 countries around the world that are at the forefront of this [energy] transition. These are the companies that are leading the way by putting sustainability at the heart of their products, services, business models, and investments, helping to move the world onto a more sustainable trajectory. 

Agenda for a Progressive Political Economy of Carbon Removal, Nawaz et al., Institute for Responsible Carbon Removal, American University:

Large amounts of carbon dioxide will need to be removed and durably stored to meet climate targets. Even the lowest estimates suggest that large new industries will need to be created to produce these removals. As both private and public investments begin to fill this gap, the foundations of an emerging carbon removal industry are now being laid via policy decisions that will shape the field to come. The authors examine the possible versions of a future with carbon removal, imagining its best forms, its worst forms, and its most likely forms.

135 articles in 66 journals by 766 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

Underlying physical mechanisms of winter precipitation extremes over India’s high mountain region, Nischal et al., Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 10.1002/qj.4661

Observations of climate change, effects

Unprecedented wildfires in Korea: Historical evidence of increasing wildfire activity due to climate change, Chang et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.109920

Widespread and increasing near-bottom hypoxia in the coastal ocean off the United States Pacific Northwest, Barth et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-024-54476-0

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

Exploring Multi-decadal Time Series of Temperature Extremes in Australian Coastal Waters, Hemming et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access pdf 10.5194/essd-16-887-2024

Opinion: Aerosol remote sensing over the next 20 years, Remer et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-24-2113-2024

The importance of crowdsourced observations for urban climate services, Mitchell & Fry, International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.8390

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

A Simple Relationship Between the Magnitude and Spatial Extent of Global Surface Temperature Anomalies, Fried & Huybers, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2023gl106537

A systematic review of regional and global climate extremes in CMIP6 models under shared socio-economic pathways, Deepa et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-024-04872-3

Current and Future Patterns of Global Wildfire Based on Deep Neural Networks, Zhang et al., Earth’s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef004088

Future Changes in the Intensity and Duration of Marine Heat and Cold Waves: Insights from Coupled Model Initial-Condition Large Ensembles, Deser et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0278.1

Roles of External Forcing and Internal Variability in Global Marine Heatwaves Change During 1982–2021, Dong et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2023gl107557

Simulating the Western North America heatwave of 2021 with analog importance sampling, Pons et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100651

Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

Assessing the sensitivity of aerosol mass budget and effective radiative forcing to horizontal grid spacing in E3SMv1 using a regional refinement approach, Li et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-1327-2024

Causally-Informed Deep Learning to Improve Climate Models and Projections, Iglesias?Suarez et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2023jd039202

Evaluation of Stratocumulus Evolution Under Contrasting Temperature Advections in CESM2 Through a Lagrangian Framework, Zhang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl106856

Global Precipitation Correction Across a Range of Climates Using CycleGAN, McGibbon et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl105131

How well do Earth system models reproduce the observed aerosol response to rapid emission reductions? A COVID-19 case study, Digby et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-24-2077-2024

Moist bias in the Pacific upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) in climate models affects regional circulation patterns, Ploeger et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-24-2033-2024

Seasonal Prediction of Regional Arctic Sea Ice Using the High-Resolution Climate Prediction System CMA-CPSv3, Dai et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2023jd039148

Spatial spin-up of precipitation in limited-area convection-permitting simulations over North America using the CRCM6/GEM5.0 model, Roberge et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access pdf 10.5194/gmd-17-1497-2024

Uncertainties in the Projection of Dynamic Sea Level in CMIP6 and FGOALS-g3 Large Ensemble, Jin et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0272.1

Understanding Biases in Indian Ocean Seasonal SST in CMIP6 Models, McKenna et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jc020330

Understanding of CMIP6 surface temperature cold bias over the westerly and monsoon regions of the Tibetan Plateau, Wu et al., Climate Dynamics 10.1007/s00382-024-07122-4

Cryosphere & climate change

A High-Resolution Calving Front Data Product for Marine-Terminating Glaciers in Svalbard, Li et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access pdf 10.5194/essd-16-919-2024

Atlantic Water warming increases melt below Northeast Greenland’s last floating ice tongue, Wekerle et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-45650-z

Glacier retreat and lake outburst floods in the central Himalayan region from 2000 to 2022, Banerjee et al., Natural Hazards 10.1007/s11069-024-06415-5

Globally consistent estimates of high-resolution Antarctic ice mass balance and spatially resolved glacial isostatic adjustment, Willen et al., The Cryosphere Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-18-775-2024

Meteoric water and glacial melt in the southeastern Amundsen Sea: a time series from 1994 to 2020, Hennig et al., The Cryosphere Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-18-791-2024

Minimal Impact of Late-Season Melt Events on Greenland Ice Sheet Annual Motion, Ing et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl106520

Sea level & climate change

Global and regional ocean mass budget closure since 2003, Ludwigsen et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-45726-w

Real-world time-travel experiment shows ecosystem collapse due to anthropogenic climate change, Li et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-45487-6

The Need for Multi-Century Projections of Sea Level Rise, Palmer & Weeks , Earth’s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef004403

Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry

Oxygen rise in the tropical upper ocean during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, Moretti et al., Science Open Access pdf 10.1126/science.adh4893

Spatial patterns of Holocene temperature changes over mid-latitude Eurasia, Jiang et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-45883-y

The Ostracod Clumped-Isotope Thermometer: A Novel Tool to Accurately Quantify Continental Climate Changes, Marchegiano et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2023gl107426

Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

Biparental incubation behaviour under temperature extremes in sandbank nesting black skimmers, Austad et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.11021

Body mass, temperature, and pathogen intensity differentially affect critical thermal maxima and their population-level variation in a solitary bee, Jones et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.10945

Body size and trophic structure explain global asymmetric response of tetrapod diversity to climate effects, Gusmão et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.11047

Climate regulation processes are linked to the functional composition of plant communities in European forests, shrublands, and grasslands, Kambach et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.17189

Climate-driven range shifts of Levaillant’s Woodpecker Picus vaillantii in the Western Mediterranean, Badis et al., Regional Environmental Change 10.1007/s10113-024-02185-9

Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system, Flores et al., Nature Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41586-023-06970-0

Decline of a North American rocky intertidal foundation species linked to extreme dry, downslope Santa Ana winds, Whitaker et al., Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.3389/fevo.2024.1291310

Developmental temperature, more than long-term evolution, defines thermal tolerance in an estuarine copepod, Ashlock et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.10995

Drought resistance of major tree species in the Czech Republic, Jiang et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.109933

Ecological generalism and physiology mediate fish biogeographic ranges under ocean warming, Hayes et al., Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences Open Access 10.1098/rspb.2023.2206

Effects of climate trends and variability on tree health responses in the Black Sea and Mediterranean forests of Türkiye, Dogan Ciftci et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00704-024-04853-6

Evapotranspiration and its partitioning during and following a mountain pine beetle infestation of a lodgepole pine stand in the interior of British Columbia, Canada, Hao et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access pdf 10.3389/ffgc.2024.1352853

Feasting on the ordinary or starving for the exceptional in a warming climate: Phenological synchrony between spongy moth (Lymantria dispar) and budburst of six European tree species, Vitasse et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.10928

Major changes in fish thermal habitat diversity in Canada’s Arctic lakes due to climate change, Gillis et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01251-8

Maximum tree height in European Mountains decreases above a climate-related elevation threshold, Gelabert et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01246-5

Potential extinction cascades in a desert ecosystem: Linking food web interactions to community viability, Eichenwald et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.10930

Predicting the current habitat refugia of Himalayan Musk deer (Moschus chrysogaster) across Nepal, Dhami et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.10949

Rapid sea level rise causes loss of seagrass meadows, Capistrant-Fossa & Dunton Dunton, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01236-7

Real-world time-travel experiment shows ecosystem collapse due to anthropogenic climate change, Li et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-45487-6

Shortening fire return interval predisposes west-central Canadian boreal peatlands to more rapid vegetation growth and transition to forest cover, Jones et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.17185

Soil microenvironmental variation drives below-ground trait variation and interacts with macroclimate to structure above-ground trait variation of arctic shrubs, Fraterrigo et al., Journal of Ecology Open Access pdf 10.1111/1365-2745.14278

Taking the beat of the Arctic: are lemming population cycles changing due to winter climate?, Gauthier et al., Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1098/rspb.2023.2361

Transition from positive to negative indirect CO2 effects on the vegetation carbon uptake, Chen et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-45957-x

Vegetation Productivity Slowdown on the Tibetan Plateau Around the Late 1990s, Ren et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl103865

GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

Biodegradation of Ancient Organic Carbon Fuels Seabed Methane Emission at the Arctic Continental Shelves, You, Global Biogeochemical Cycles Open Access 10.1029/2023gb007999

Boreal–Arctic wetland methane emissions modulated by warming and vegetation activity, Yuan et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-024-01933-3

Carbon dioxide emissions and environmental risks: Long term and short term, Boubaker et al., Risk Analysis Open Access 10.1111/risa.14281

Carbon dynamics shift in changing cryosphere and hydrosphere of the Third Pole, Gao et al., Earth 10.1016/j.earscirev.2024.104717

Carbon sequestration and nitrogen loss drive the evolution of French forest soils, Saenger et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access 10.3389/ffgc.2024.1338239

Deglaciation-enhanced mantle CO2 fluxes at Yellowstone imply positive climate feedback, Clerc et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-45890-z

Developing unbiased estimation of atmospheric methane via machine learning and multiobjective programming based on TROPOMI and GOSAT data, Li et al., Remote Sensing of Environment 10.1016/j.rse.2024.114039

Emergent temperature sensitivity of soil organic carbon driven by mineral associations, Georgiou et al., Nature Geoscience Open Access 10.1038/s41561-024-01384-7

Energy use efficiency of soil microorganisms: Driven by carbon recycling and reduction, Wang & Kuzyakov, Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.16925

Evaluation and optimisation of the soil carbon turnover routine in the MONICA model (version 3.3.1), Aiteew et al., Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2023-760