Skeptical Science New Research for Week #7 2024

The “Greta Effect” on Social Media: A Systematic Review of Research on Thunberg’s Impact on Digital Climate Change Communication, Mede & Schroeder, Environmental Communication 10.1080/17524032.2024.2314028

Who Sets the Agenda for Climate Change in China? A Longitudinal Analysis of Primary Actors that Drive Online Discussions on Social Media, Ji et al., Environmental Communication 10.1080/17524032.2024.2314033

Whose Authority Drives the Narrative?: Framing the Spread of Mountain Pine Beetle in Canadian News Media, Hutchen et al., Environmental Communication Open Access pdf 10.1080/17524032.2024.2306580

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

A global meta-analysis of yield-scaled N2O emissions and its mitigation efforts for maize, wheat, and rice, Yao et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17177

Climate change effect on optimal N recommendation and yield of rice and wheat crops, Dubey et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-024-04866-1

Climate risks to soy-maize double-cropping due to Amazon deforestation, Leite?Filho et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8381

Exploring the Impact of Climate Change on Tea Production in Bangladesh: Analyzing Short- and Long-Run Asymmetrical Effects, Mila et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-024-04530-8

Forecasting enteric methane emission using autoregressive integrated moving average and Holt–Winters time series models in South Asian countries, Dayoub et al., International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology 10.1007/s13762-023-05320-x

From gender gaps to gender-transformative climate-smart agriculture, Huyer et al., Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability Open Access 10.1016/j.cosust.2024.101415

How do we motivate farmers to adopt low-carbon production? Analysis of extrinsic incentives’ internalization, Zhu & Chen, Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2023.102186

Self-governance mediates small-scale fishing strategies, vulnerability and adaptive response, Frawley et al., Global Environmental Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102805

Soil properties shape the heterogeneity of denitrification and N2O emissions across large-scale flooded paddy soils, Tang et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17176

Stay or go? Geographic variation in risks due to climate change for fishing fleets that adapt in-place or adapt on-the-move, Kennie & Middlehurst Taylor Frisse Murray Whiteman Rohde Littler Walter Plaisir Xiao Tsunoda , Leadership Transitions in Universities Open Access 10.4324/9780429331114-15

Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

Climate Change Contributions to Increasing Compound Flooding Risk in New York City, Sarhadi et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-23-0177.1

Climate Change Will Impact Surface Water Extents and Dynamics Across the Central United States, Vanderhoof et al., Earth’s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef004106

MOPREDAS&century database and precipitation trends in mainland Spain, 1916–2020, Gonzalez?Hidalgo et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.8060

Prediction of extreme rainfall events in 21st century – The results based on Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo, Jiao et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.101822

The growing inadequacy of an open-ended Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale in a warming world, Wehner & Kossin, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1073/pnas.2308901121

The sensitivity of the North American Monsoon to Gulf of California Sea surface temperatures, Wallace & Minder Minder, Climate Dynamics Open Access 10.1007/s00382-023-07057-2

Climate change economics

Challenges and countermeasures for developing countries in addressing loss and damage caused by climate change, Liu et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2024.02.003

How rising temperatures affect electricity consumption and economic development in Mexico, Germán-Soto & Bordallo Favela, Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-024-04527-3

Impact of financial inclusion, economic growth, natural resource rents, and natural energy use on carbon emissions: the MMQR approach, Shang et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-024-04513-9

Using climate financing wisely to address multiple crises, Läderach et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000355

Climate change mitigation public policy research

A bioenergy-focused versus a reforestation-focused mitigation pathway yields disparate carbon storage and climate responses, Cheng et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1073/pnas.2306775121

Analysis, evaluation and implications of Rhode Island’s “2021 Act on Climate” for response to climate change, Kim & Park, Climatic Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-024-03680-y

Citizen-led emissions reduction: Enhancing enjoyment and understanding for diverse citizen engagement with air pollution and climate change decision making, Fogg-Rogers et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103692

Climate policy contradictions in light of the policy paradigms – the case of the Visegrád Countries, Kovács et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103689

Underappreciated Emission Spikes From Power Plants During Heatwaves Observed From Space: Case Studies in India and China, Liu et al., Earth’s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef003937

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Comparing the warming effects of different urban forms under projected climate change in China’s Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area, Chen et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.101824

Climate change impacts on human health

Contribution of climate change to the spatial expansion of West Nile virus in Europe, Erazo et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-45290-3

Exploring warm extremes in South America: insights into regional climate change projections through dry-bulb and wet-bulb temperatures, Coronato et al., Climate Dynamics 10.1007/s00382-024-07140-2

Climate change & geopolitics

Dismantling green colonialism: energy and climate justice in the Arab region, Khaira & Ranti , Environmental Politics 10.1080/09644016.2024.2313654

Other

Increase in western North Pacific tropical cyclone intensification rates and their northwestward shifts, Huang et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107292

Phase-Locked Rossby Wave-4 Pattern Dominates the 2022-Like Concurrent Heat Extremes Across the Northern Hemisphere, Yang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl107106

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Cat 6 hurricanes have arrived, Mann, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1073/pnas.2322597121

Development transitions for fossil fuel-producing low and lower–middle income countries in a carbon-constrained world, Foster et al., Nature Energy 10.1038/s41560-023-01440-3

Editorial: Impacts of global change on protective forests in mountain areas, Bottero et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access pdf 10.3389/ffgc.2024.1375285

How to transform Africa’s food system, Ogega et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01250-9

Melting ice core archives, , Nature Geoscience Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41561-024-01385-6

Sector silos in climate action- A missed opportunity to prioritize health equity, Khanal et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000349

Toward a US Framework for Continuity of Satellite Observations of Earth’s Climate and for Supporting Societal Resilience, Waliser & , Earth’s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef003757

Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Hidden Threat: The Influence of Sea-Level Rise on Coastal Groundwater and the Convergence of Impacts on Municipal Infrastructure, Habel et al., Annual Reviews

Sea-level rise (SLR) is influencing coastal groundwater by both elevating the water table and shifting salinity profiles landward, making the subsurface increasingly corrosive. Low-lying coastal municipalities worldwide (potentially 1,546, according to preliminary analysis) are vulnerable to an array of impacts spurred by these phenomena, which can occur decades before SLR-induced surface inundation. Damage is accumulating across a variety of infrastructure networks that extend partially and fully beneath the ground surface. Because the resulting damage is largely concealed and imperceptible, it is largely overlooked as part of infrastructure management and planning. Here, we provide an overview of SLR-influenced coastal groundwater and related processes that have the potential to damage societally critical infrastructure and mobilize urban contamination. In an effort to promote research efforts that can inform effective adaptation and management, we discuss various impacts to critical infrastructure and propose actions based on literature focused specifically on SLR-influenced coastal groundwater.

Potential Hydrodynamic Impacts of Offshore Wind Energy on Nantucket Shoals Regional Ecology, Hofmann et al., National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine

The transition to renewable energy has spurred many efforts to scale up the U.S. portfolio of efficient clean energy resources, including the development of offshore wind farms. The Nantucket Shoals region off the coast of Massachusetts is the first large scale wind farm installation under development in U.S. waters. To ensure Nantucket Shoals region offshore wind energy installations are being planned, constructed, and developed in an environmentally responsible way the authors evaluate the potential for offshore wind farms in the Nantucket Shoals region to affect oceanic physical processes, and, in turn, how those hydrodynamic alterations might affect local to regional ecosystems. Of particular interest are the potential effects of hydrodynamic changes on zooplankton productivity and aggregations, which may affect foraging for the critically endangered North Atlantic right whale. The authors found the impacts of offshore wind projects on the North Atlantic right whale and the availability of their prey in the Nantucket Shoals region will likely be difficult to distinguish from the significant impacts of climate change and other influences on the ecosystem. Further study and monitoring of the oceanography and ecology of the Nantucket Shoals region is needed to fully understand the impact of future wind farms. This authors recommend conducting observational studies and modeling that will advance understanding of potential hydrodynamic effects and their consequent impacts on ecology in the Nantucket Shoals region during all phases of wind energy development.

Addressing Regulatory Challenges to Tribal Solar Deployment, Beshilas et al., National Renewable Energy Laboratory

Tribal land in the United States represents approximately 2% of the country’s total landmass and holds more than 5% of solar photovoltaic (PV) potential. This resource is largely untapped. Many Tribes are actively seeking to engage in solar development; a review of 35 Tribal strategic energy plans in 2019 revealed that 32 of 35 Tribes were exploring solar options for their communities. Many Tribes also cited regulatory hurdles to achieving these goals. The authors seek to unlock some of this potential by bringing Tribal, regulatory, utility, and other stakeholders together to articulate key barriers to Tribal solar adoption and develop replicable solutions. By increasing institutional capacity and developing frameworks, trainings, and a targeted technical document repository for regulatory bodies, utilities, and Tribes, this project can help expand an emerging market.

The 10th National Risk Assessment Atrocious Air, Alfaro et al., First Street

There are growing concerns that climate change impacts are undoing some of the progress the US has made through regulations and policy on clean air. This trend has been referred to as a “climate penalty”, whereby changing environmental conditions are inducing negative effects which erase some of the progress made through federal and local regulatory policies. Changes in environmental conditions, such as extreme heat, drought, and wildfires, are contributing to the increase in the levels of specific pollutants (O3 and PM2.5, specifically), often to concentrations above safe levels in much of the country. The “climate penalty” is not felt equally across the country, with some of the most dramatic effects seen in recent upticks in PM2.5 from wildfire smoke in the West, and growing pockets of extreme Ozone exposure. Using the newly created First Street – Air Quality Model (FS-AQM), the authors find continued exposure as well as climate-related increases in poor air quality due to the growing incidence of wildfires, extreme heat events, and their negative interactions with other environmental and anthropogenic conditions. The results show that there are approximately 14.3 million properties (~10% of all properties) in the US that are estimated to have a week or more (7+ days) of unhealthy air quality days solely from PM2.5 in the current climate conditions. Of those, almost 5.7 million properties (~4%) may experience two or more weeks (14+ days) annually of smoke-driven unhealthy air quality days.

State of the World’s Migratory Species, Davis et al., United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre

While some migratory species listed under Convention on the Conservation of Migratory Species of Wild Animals (CMS) are improving, nearly half (44 per cent) are showing population declines. More than one-in-five (22 per cent) of CMS-listed species are threatened with extinction. Nearly all (97 per cent) of CMS-listed fish are threatened with extinction. The extinction risk is growing for migratory species globally, including those not listed under CMS. The two greatest threats to both CMS-listed and all migratory species are overexploitation and habitat loss due to human activity. Three out of four CMS-listed species are impacted by habitat loss, degradation and fragmentation, and seven out of ten CMS-listed species are impacted by overexploitation (including intentional taking as well as incidental capture). Climate change, pollution and invasive species are also having profound impacts on migratory species.

Analysis of Lifecycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Natural Gas and Coal Powered Electricity, Lesley Feldman and David McCabe, Clean Air Task Force

Global emission changes caused by the use of additional U.S. gas exports for electric power generation may be additive to emissions from baseline coal production and consumption, rather than replacing those emissions, or compete with zero-carbon electricity, particularly in developing economies. Even assuming one-to-one displacement of coal with gas generation in developing countries, given the magnitude of measured emissions from the natural gas supply chain, there may be little or no GHG benefit from displacing coal with gas. Even where there is a slight benefit of gas vs. coal, the analysis shows that the use of unabated natural gas for power generation in developing countries is not consistent with achieving climate goals. The analysis further shows that the use of natural gas for power generation is only consistent with decarbonization if the upstream and downstream CO2?and CH4 emissions from natural gas are maximally mitigated?including methane abatement for gas and utilization of CCS for power plant CO2. Evidence does not show that U.S. gas is cleaner than average global gas, so displacing other sources of natural gas with U.S. LNG may not decrease GHG emissions.

The Economics of the Food System Transformation, Laderchi et al., Food System Economics Commission

The authors identify the elements of what a transformation from today’s food systems to an inclusive, health-enhancing, and environmentally sustainable global food system entails. It shows that such a transformation is not only biophysically and technically feasible; it offers immense economic benefits to societies across the world. The net benefits of achieving a food system transformation are worth 5 to 10 trillion USD a year, equivalent to between 4 and 8 percent of global GDP in 2020. Combined with transitions taking place outside the realm of food, notably to low-emission energy, a food system transformation can ensure that global warming stays well below 1.5 degrees C at the end of this century.

A Maximum Speed Global Climate Rescue Plan, Merrill et al., Climate North Star

As the nation and world experience climate impacts of increasing frequency and ferocity one question has become central and urgent. How quickly can we execute a maximum-speed global climate rescue plan? And what would be the impact on global temperature and other key metrics of such a maximum speed transformation? Climate North Star is a proposal that answers these questions in a scientifically grounded way. Implementing the maximum Climate North Star recommendations would cause the global average temperature to peak at 1.3 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by 2030; yield a 1 degree Celsius or lower global average temperature by 2100; limit atmospheric CO2 concentrations to 428 ppm by 2030 falling to 372 ppm by 2100; and limit 2100 sea level rise to 5 inches below the most aggressive IPCC scenarios, returning in a few centuries to pre-industrial conditions.

Passive Investing in a Warming World, Connor Chung and Dan Cohn, Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis

The energy transition is beginning to leave an imprint on equity markets. Fossil fuels, once a primary driver of index returns and economic growth, are becoming an increasingly risky and speculative part of passive equity portfolios. Over the last decade, shedding oil, gas, and coal has proven a winning financial strategy — even taking the recent energy crisis into account. As the sector’s historic value thesis erodes, a few high-profit quarters have been unable to reverse a decade of underperformance. The passive investment landscape is starting to reflect this shift. In recent years, equity indices with reduced fossil fuel exposure have proliferated, passed major funds’ prudence tests, and been adopted without significant transaction costs.

Protecting Population Health in a Climate Emergency, Patricia Daly, Vancouver Coastal Health

The author describes the impacts of climate change on population health and examines the most significant effects experienced and anticipated in the Vancouver, Canada, region. The author also documents significant work already underway from local governments, Indigenous communities, and community partners to mitigate climate change and adapt to protect those at risk. Some of the impacts identified include drinking water systems in many smaller communities in the Vancouver region are at risk of disruption or failure in the event of drought or flooding. Indigenous communities have identified that changes to the climate in the region create obstacles for many Indigenous people to engage in cultural practices, potentially impacting nutritional and spiritual health and well-being, and a citizen science project shows indoor temperatures get dangerously hot within housing in the region during hot weather events, particularly multi-unit dwellings without air conditioning.

Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions

We know it’s frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as “On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light”  but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article’s relevance and importance. 

• Unpaywall offers a browser extension for Chrome and Firefox that automatically indicates when an article is freely accessible and provides immediate access without further trouble. Unpaywall is also unscammy, works well, is itself offered free to use. The organizers (a legitimate nonprofit) report about a 50% success rate

• The weekly New Research catch is checked against the Unpaywall database with accessible items being flagged. Especially for just-published articles this mechansim may fail. If you’re interested in an article title and it is not listed here as “open access,” be sure to check the link anyway. 

How is New Research assembled?

Most articles appearing here are found via  RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance. 

Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database. 

The objective of New Research isn’t to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers’ impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:

• Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a “yes” to this automatically. 
• Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week’s 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.

A few journals offer public access to “preprint” versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. For some key journals this all the mention we’ll see in RSS feeds, so we include such items in New Research. These are flagged as “preprint.”

The section “Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives” includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of “perspectives,” observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.

Suggestions

Please let us know if you’re aware of an article you think may be of interest for Skeptical Science research news, or if we’ve missed something that may be important. Send your input to Skeptical Science via our contact form.

Journals covered

A list of journals we cover may be found here. We welcome pointers to omissions, new journals etc.

Previous edition

The previous edition of Skeptical Science New Research may be found here.