Skeptical Science New Research for Week #47 2024
31 min read
Skeptical Science New Research for Week #47 2024
Posted on 21 November 2024 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open access notables
Projected increase in the frequency of extremely active Atlantic hurricane seasons, Lopez et al., Science Advances:
Future changes to the year-to-year swings between active and inactive North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) seasons have received little attention, yet may have great societal implications in areas prone to hurricane landfalls. This work investigates past and future changes in North Atlantic TC activity, focusing on interannual variability and evaluating the contributions from anthropogenic forcing. We show that interannual variability of Atlantic TC activity has already increased, evidenced by an increase in the occurrence of both extremely active and inactive TC seasons. TC-resolving general circulation models project a 36% increase in the variance of North Atlantic TC activity, measured by accumulated cyclone energy, by the middle of the 21st century. These changes are the result of increased variability in vertical wind shear and atmospheric stability, in response to enhanced Pacific-to-Atlantic interbasin sea surface temperature variations. Robust anthropogenic-forced intensification in the variability of Atlantic TC activity will continue in the future, with important implications for emergency planning and societal preparedness.
The Summer Heatwave 2022 over Western Europe: An Attribution to Anthropogenic Climate Change, Feser et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society:
The European summer heatwave 2022 was exceptional in its intensity, duration, and spatial extent (Copernicus Observer 2022). Large-scale and persistent high temperatures, both over land and over sea, in combination with local droughts characterized the extraordinary heatwave. Both methods showed that the heatwave was an extreme event, in terms of temperature differences between present-day, preindustrial, and +2°C times and in its statistics. According to our results, the anthropogenic contribution was crucial for the high temperatures of the extreme heatwave of summer 2022.
Pervasive fire danger continued under a negative emission scenario, Kim et al., Nature Communications:
Enhanced fire-prone weather under greenhouse gas warming can significantly affect local and global carbon budgets from increased fire occurrence, influencing carbon-climate feedbacks. However, the extent to which changes in fire-prone weather and associated carbon emissions can be mitigated by negative emissions remains uncertain. Here, we analyze fire weather responses in CO2 removal climate model experiments and estimate their potential carbon emissions based on an observational relationship between fire weather and fire-induced CO2 emissions. The results highlight that enhanced fire danger under global warming cannot be restored instantaneously by CO2 reduction, mainly due to atmospheric dryness maintained by climatic inertia. The exacerbated fire danger is projected to contribute to extra CO2 emissions in 68% of global regions due to the hysteresis of climate responses to CO2 levels. These findings highlight that even under global cooling from negative emissions, increased fire activity may reinforce the fire-carbon-climate feedback loop and result in further socio-economic damage.
Partisan belief in new misinformation is resistant to accuracy incentives, Stein et al., PNAS Nexus:
One explanation for why people accept ideologically welcome misinformation is that they are insincere. Consistent with the insincerity hypothesis, past experiments have demonstrated that bias in the veracity assessment of publicly reported statistics and debunked news headlines often diminishes considerably when accuracy is incentivized. Many statements encountered online, however, constitute previously unseen claims that are difficult to evaluate the veracity of. We hypothesize that when confronted with unfamiliar content, unsure partisans will form sincere beliefs that are ideologically aligned. Across three experimental studies, 1,344 conservative and liberal US participants assessed the veracity of 20 politically sensitive statements that either confirmed or contradicted social science evidence only known to experts. As hypothesized, analyses show that incentives failed to correct most ideological differences in the perceived veracity of statements. Sixty six to 78% of partisan differences in accuracy assessment persisted even when monetary stakes were raised beyond levels in prior studies. Participants displayed a surprising degree of confidence in their erroneous beliefs, as bias was not reduced when participants could safely avoid rating statements they were unsure about, without monetary loss. These findings suggest limits to the ability of disciplining interventions to reduce the expression of false statements, because many of the targeted individuals sincerely believe them to be true.
From this week’s government/NGO section:
Powering United States Primary Steel Decarbonization, Snook et al., Clean Energy Buyers Association
The U.S. primary steel industry will require 174 terawatt hours (TWh) of electricity annually by 2050 to slash up to 57% of the industry’s emissions and help achieve global aims to reduce carbon emissions. The 174 TWh would be a 159 TWh increase from business-as-usual practices. To power this next generation of steel with carbon-free energy would require at least 28 gigawatts (GW) of solar and wind resources and 58 GW of battery storage by 2050, as well as interregional transmission reform. The report’s findings amplify the need for transmission reform as well as accelerated deployment of carbon-free energy to power these steel-making facilities and processes, retain domestic competitiveness, and reduce emissions deep in corporate supply chains.
The economic cost of extreme weather events, Oxera Consulting LLP, International Chamber of Commerce
The authors estimate that climate-related extreme weather events have cost the global economy more than $2 trillion over the past decade. They used almost 4,000 events which impacted a total of 1.6 billion people between 2014 and 2023. In the last two full years alone, global economic damages reached $451 billion – representing a 19% increase compared to the previous eight years of the decade. The analysis highlights the acute impact on many developing economies with single extreme weather events often imposing economic costs more than a country’s annual GDP.
94% of Europeans support measures to adapt to climate change, according to EIB survey, European Investment Bank
Almost three-quarters of people polled across the European Union recognize the need to adapt their lifestyle due to the effects of climate change, according to the annual Climate Survey commissioned by the European Investment Bank. Among the challenges facing their countries, respondents ranked climate change second only to the cost of living. Many believe that investing in adaptation now will not only boost the economy but will also prevent higher costs in the future. The Survey presents the views of over 24,000 respondents from across the European Union and the United States on the topic of climate change. In the EU, 24,148 people took part in the survey, which was conducted in August 2024.
132 articles in 58 journals by 855 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
Enhanced understanding of warming and humidifying on ground heat flux in the Tibetan Plateau Hinterland, He et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107799
Estimated human-induced warming from a linear temperature and atmospheric CO2 relationship, Jarvis & Forster, Nature Geoscience Open Access 10.1038/s41561-024-01580-5
Irreversible changes in the sea surface temperature threshold for tropical convection to CO2 forcing, Park et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01751-7
Observed Pathways and Interannual Variability of the Warm Inflow Onto the Continental Shelf in the Southern Weddell Sea, Steiger et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2023jc020700
Reductions in atmospheric levels of non-CO2 greenhouse gases explain about a quarter of the 1998-2012 warming slowdown, Su et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01723-x
Unparalleled EA-like leading mode of variability in the early 20th century highlights the need for understanding non-stationarity in the North Atlantic climate system, Halifa-Marín et al., Atmospheric Research Open Access 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107796
Observations of climate change, effects
20th century climate warming and human disturbance triggered high aquatic production and strong water-column mixing in maar Lake Xiaolongwan, northeastern China, Tu et al., Anthropocene 10.1016/j.ancene.2024.100442
Accelerated drying trends over Northeast Asia by anthropogenic forcing during 1948–2010, Guo et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107781
Accelerating onset of heatwaves after the Meiyu termination in the middle-lower Yangtze River basin, Wei et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107782
Anthropogenic climate change doubled the frequency of compound drought and heatwaves in low-income regions, Zhang et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01894-7
Atmosphere–Ocean–Sea Ice Feedbacks Sustain Recent Barents Sea Ice Loss despite Cooler Atlantic Water Inflow, Chatterjee et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0020.1
Global Climate-Driven Sea Surface Temperature and Chlorophyll Dynamics, Venegas et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106856
High-resolution satellite imagery reveals a recent accelerating rate of increase in land evapotranspiration, Jaafar & Sujud, Remote Sensing of Environment Open Access 10.1016/j.rse.2024.114489
Observations Over a Century Underscore an Increasing Likelihood of Compound Dry-Hot Events in China, Duan et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef004546
Role of warming trend in occurrence of record-breaking high-temperature events in China during the past 40 years, Kuang et al., Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 10.1002/qj.4897
Substantial Increase in Sub–Daily Precipitation Extremes of Flooding Season Over China, Wang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2024gl112182
The Summer Heatwave 2022 over Western Europe: An Attribution to Anthropogenic Climate Change, Feser et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 10.1175/bams-d-24-0017.1
Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects
SARAH-3 – satellite-based climate data records of surface solar radiation, Pfeifroth et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access 10.5194/essd-16-5243-2024
Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects
An intensification of surface Earth’s energy imbalance since the late 20th century, Li et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01802-z
Climate change effects on the localized heavy rainfall event in northern Japan in 2022: Uncertainties in a pseudo-global warming approach, Tahara et al., Atmospheric Research Open Access 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107780
Extremes of Temperature and Precipitation Under CMIP6 Scenarios Projections Over Central Hokkaido, Japan, Zhou et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.8680
More than three-fold increase in compound soil and air dryness across Europe by the end of 21st century, Shekhar et al., Open Access 10.21203/rs.3.rs-3143908/v2
Pervasive fire danger continued under a negative emission scenario, Kim et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-54339-2
Projected Changes of Kuroshio in a Warming Climate, Huang et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0095.1
Projected Changes to Characteristics of El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole, and Southern Annular Mode Events in the CMIP6 Models, Chung et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef005166
Projected increase in the frequency of extremely active Atlantic hurricane seasons, Lopez et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adq7856
Weakened large-scale surface heat flux feedback at midlatitudes under global warming, Wang et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-54394-9
Weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation driven by subarctic freshening since the mid-twentieth century, Pontes & Menviel, Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-024-01568-1
Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection
An improved and extended parameterization of the CO2 15 µm cooling in the middle and upper atmosphere (CO2&cool&fort-1.0), López-Puertas et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4401-2024
Enhanced Blocking Frequencies in Very-High Resolution Idealized Climate Model Simulations, De Luca et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl111016
Evaluating the ALADIN-climate model reanalysis over Central Europe, Beranová et al., Atmospheric Research Open Access 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107809
Evolution and prospects of Earth system models: Challenges and opportunities, Pan et al., Earth 10.1016/j.earscirev.2024.104986
Lightweight climate models could be useful for assessing aviation mitigation strategies and moving beyond the CO2-equivalence metrics debate, Arriolabengoa et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01888-5
Robust handling of extremes in quantile mapping – “Murder your darlings”, Berg et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-8173-2024
Cryosphere & climate change
Glacier mass change and evolution of Petrov Lake in the Ak-Shyirak massif, central Tien Shan, from 1973 to 2023 using multisource satellite data, Wang et al., Remote Sensing of Environment 10.1016/j.rse.2024.114437
Twenty-first century global glacier evolution under CMIP6 scenarios and the role of glacier-specific observations, Zekollari et al., The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-18-5045-2024
Unveiling the devastating effect of the spring 2022 mega-heatwave on the South Asian snowpack, Hassan et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01857-y
Sea level & climate change
Improved Sea Level Reconstruction from 1900 to 2019, Wang et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0410.1
Scalable, data-assimilated models predict large-scale shoreline response to waves and sea-level rise, Vitousek et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-024-77030-4
Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry
Opinion: Distribute paleoscience information across the next Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports, Kaufman & Masson-Delmotte, Climate of the Past Open Access 10.5194/cp-20-2587-2024
Response of atmospheric CO2 changes to the Abyssal Pacific overturning during the last glacial cycle, Zhang et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104636
Biology & climate change, related geochemistry
Assessment of non-stationary tree growth responses in the forest-tundra and southern taiga of central Siberia, Kirdyanov et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110296
Climate change scenarios forecast increased drought exposure for terrestrial vertebrates in the contiguous United States, van den Bosch et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01880-z
Contrasting Future Growth of Norway Spruce and Scots Pine Forests Under Warming Climate, Martinez del Castillo et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.17580
Evapotranspiration increase is more sensitive to vegetation greening than to vegetation type conversion in arid and semi-arid regions of China, Zhu et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104634
Flowering seasonality and airborne pollen recent trends in Sierra de las Nieves, the southernmost National Park in continental Spain, de Gálvez-Montañez et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110295
Global Distribution of Alien Mammals Under Climate Change, Biancolini et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.17560
Indirect effects of warming via phenology on reproductive success of alpine plants, Zhang et al., Journal of Ecology 10.1111/1365-2745.14449
Investigating climate anomalies associated with the sudden mortality of balsam fir trees in eastern Canada, Broom et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access 10.3389/ffgc.2024.1472699
Low-elevation forest extent in the western United States constrained by soil surface temperatures, Holden et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-024-01577-0
Major distribution shifts are projected for key rangeland grasses under a high-emission scenario in East Africa at the end of the 21st century, Messmer et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01731-x
Marine climate indicators in the Adriatic Sea, da Costa et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2024.1449633
Multi-Omics Inform Invasion Risks Under Global Climate Change, Chen et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17588
Performance of Acanthina monodon juveniles under long-term exposure to predicted climate change conditions, Paredes-Molina et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106855
Recurrent marine heatwaves compromise the reproduction success and long-term viability of shallow populations of the Mediterranean gorgonian Eunicella singularis, Sarda et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106822
Reviews and syntheses: Biological indicators of low-oxygen stress in marine water-breathing animals, Roman et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-21-4975-2024
Spatial and temporal pattern of forest carrying capacity and its influencing factors in China, Japan, and Korea based on climate change, Hao et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access 10.3389/ffgc.2024.1396430
Spatial Distribution Pattern of Aromia bungii Within China and Its Potential Distribution Under Climate Change and Human Activity, Zhang et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.70520
Sustainable Land Use Strengthens Microbial and Herbivore Controls in Soil Food Webs in Current and Future Climates, Sünnemann et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.17554
The trade-offs associated with the adaptions of marine microalgae to high CO2 and warming, Liang et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106853
Tree Germination Sensitivity to Increasing Temperatures: A Global Meta-Analysis Across Biomes, Species and Populations, Vicente & Benito Garzón, Global Ecology and Biogeography 10.1111/geb.13921
‘Heroic interference’ should not be the endgame of coral-reef restoration, Matz, Nature 10.1038/d41586-024-03782-8
GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry
Annual grass invasions and wildfire deplete ecosystem carbon storage by >50% to resistant base levels, Maxwell et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01795-9
Drought conditions disrupt atmospheric carbon uptake in a Mediterranean saline lake, Alfadhel et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-21-5117-2024
Ecological restoration enhances dryland carbon stock by reducing surface soil carbon loss due to wind erosion, Song et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2416281121
Enhancing Uncrewed Aerial Vehicle Techniques for Monitoring Greenhouse Gas Plumes at Point Sources, Kim et al., Atmospheric Environment 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2024.120924
GHG emissions intensity analysis. Case study: Bioethanol plant with cogeneration and partial CO2 recovery, Galván et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101598
Impact of wetland conversion to cropland on ecosystem carbon budget and greenhouse gas emissions in Northeast China, Li et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110311
Managing the Global Wetland Methane-Climate Feedback: A Review of Potential Options, Ury et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.17585
Resolving Uncertainty in the Response of Australia’s Terrestrial Carbon Cycle to Projected Climate Change, Teckentrup et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl111398
Seasonal CO2 amplitude in northern high latitudes, Liu et al., Nature Reviews Earth & Environment 10.1038/s43017-024-00600-7
Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001
The Fate of Deep Permafrost Carbon in Northern High Latitudes in the 21st Century: A Process-Based Modeling Analysis, Liu et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef004996
The key role of forest disturbance in reconciling estimates of the northern carbon sink, O’Sullivan et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01827-4
CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering
Advancing the frontiers of CO2 geological storage: A statistical and computational perspective, Li et al., Earth 10.1016/j.earscirev.2024.104906
High-temperature carbon dioxide capture in a porous material with terminal zinc hydride sites, Rohde et al., Science 10.1126/science.adk5697
Decarbonization
Assessing greenhouse gas emissions and decarbonization potential of household biogas plant: Nepal’s case study, Jha et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101592
Comparative Economic Analysis of Bifacial Roof-top PV Systems, Sahu et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101593
Feeding the zombie plant: The struggle over biomass in the United States, Costache & Spector, Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103816
How to measure the efficiency of bioenergy crops compared to forestation, Egerer et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-21-5005-2024
Institutional work after hype: The case of biogas in Germany, Park & Grundmann, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103820
Load profiles of residential off-grid solar systems on the Navajo Nation, Louie et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101572
Multi-year field measurements of home storage systems and their use in capacity estimation, Figgener et al., Nature Energy Open Access 10.1038/s41560-024-01620-9
Scalable fabrication of wide-bandgap perovskites using green solvents for tandem solar cells, Duan et al., Nature Energy 10.1038/s41560-024-01672-x
Aerosols
Increasing aerosol emissions from boreal biomass burning exacerbate Arctic warming, Zhong et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-024-02176-y
Revealing dominant patterns of aerosol regimes in the lower troposphere and their evolution from preindustrial times to the future in global climate model simulations, Li et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-24-12727-2024
Climate change communications & cognition
Discursive Construction of Climate Change Knowledge in Lake Chilwa Basin, Malawi, Chavinda, Environmental Communication 10.1080/17524032.2024.2427293
Localizing (or Not) Climate Change in Spanish-Language Newspapers in the United States, Johnston, Transactions of the American Mathematical Society Open Access pdf 10.2307/2000510
Online searches shape climate views, Markowitz, Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-024-02118-8
Partisan belief in new misinformation is resistant to accuracy incentives, Stein et al., PNAS Nexus Open Access 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgae506
Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change
A First Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Agricultural Peatlands in Canada: Evaluation of Climate Change Mitigation Potential, Strack et al., WIREs Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1002/wcc.925
Assessing the impact of forest management and climate on a peatland under Scots pine monoculture using a multidisciplinary approach, B?k et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-21-5143-2024
Changing climates, changing lives: Voices of a Brazilian Amazon farming community in a time of climate crisis, Monteverde et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000522
Deepening Root Inputs: Potential Soil Carbon Accrual From Breeding for Deeper Rooted Maize, Cotrufo et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.17591
A First Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Agricultural Peatlands in Canada: Evaluation of Climate Change Mitigation Potential, Strack et al., WIREs Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1002/wcc.925
Assessing the impact of forest management and climate on a peatland under Scots pine monoculture using a multidisciplinary approach, B?k et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-21-5143-2024
Changing climates, changing lives: Voices of a Brazilian Amazon farming community in a time of climate crisis, Monteverde et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000522
Evaluating the Usefulness of the C-S-R Framework for Understanding AM Fungal Responses to Climate Change in Agroecosystems, Heuck et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17566
Flowering delay in apple could alleviate frost-induced yield loss under climate change in China, Chen et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110313
Identification of key chlorophyll fluorescence parameters as biomarkers for dryland wheat under future climate conditions, Lotfi et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-024-80164-0
Lower methane and nitrous oxide emissions from rice-aquaculture co-culture systems than from rice paddies in southeast China,, Fang et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109540
Modeling biochar effects on soil organic carbon on croplands in a microbial decomposition model (MIMICS-BC&v1.0), Han et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4871-2024
Predicting future climate scenarios: a machine learning perspective on greenhouse gas emissions in agrifood systems, Behvandi & Ghorbani, Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1471599
Climate change economics
Author Correction: World economies’ progress in decoupling from CO2 emissions, Freire-González et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-024-75404-2
Climate change mitigation public policy research
1 + 1 > 2? The synergistic effect of carbon emissions reduction policies: empirical evidence from China, Jiang et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2024.2424230
Carbon data and its requirements in infrastructure-related GHG standards, Xu & MacAskill, Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103935
Comparative analysis of the levelized cost of hydrogen production from fossil energy and renewable energy in China, Tang & Li Li Li, Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101588
Decoupling effect and influencing factors of carbon emissions in China: Based on production, consumption, and income responsibilities, Lu et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2024.10.001
Do climate change policies affect labour market distortions? Empirical evidence from China’s low-carbon city pilots, Shen et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2024.2428757
1 + 1 > 2? The synergistic effect of carbon emissions reduction policies: empirical evidence from China, Jiang et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2024.2424230
Carbon data and its requirements in infrastructure-related GHG standards, Xu & MacAskill, Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103935
Comparative analysis of the levelized cost of hydrogen production from fossil energy and renewable energy in China, Tang & Li Li Li, Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101588
Decoupling effect and influencing factors of carbon emissions in China: Based on production, consumption, and income responsibilities, Lu et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2024.10.001
Inequality is driving the climate crisis: A longitudinal analysis of province-level carbon emissions in Canada, 1997–2020, Jorgenson et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103845
Localization vs globalization of carbon emissions trading system (ETS) rules: how will China’s national ETS rules evolve?, Zeng et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2024.2427724
Nudging households to save electricity with feedback: Experimental evidence from Vietnam, Nguyen et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114378
Perceived support for climate policy in Australia: The asymmetrical influence of voting behaviour, Leviston et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2024.102488
Policy implications of implementing residential PV solar energy systems in developing regions, Shand et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114414
State capacity and varieties of climate policy, Meckling & Benkler, Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-54221-1
Systematic assessment of the achieved emission reductions of carbon crediting projects, Probst et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-53645-z
Systematic assessment of the achieved emission reductions of carbon crediting projects, Probst et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-53645-z
The ideational impacts of Indonesia’s renewable energy project failures, Wibisono et al., Energy for Sustainable Development Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101587
Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research
Australia’s national climate risk Assessment: Identifying climate risk interdependencies within the infrastructure and built environment system for effective climate adaptation, Romanach et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100670
Climate shocks and food insecurity: Are Burkinabè households resilient in the face of various disruptions?, Derra & Aziz Traoré Derra, Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100667
Climate-resilient strategy planning using the SWOT methodology: A case study of the Japanese wind energy sector, Bachmann et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100665
Constructing climate change rentierism in Jordan, Poberezhskaya & El-Anis, Environmental Politics Open Access 10.1080/09644016.2024.2427527
Effective Adaptation Options to Alleviate Nuisance Flooding in Coastal Megacities—Learning From Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, Scheiber et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef004766
How are Indian cities adapting to extreme heat? Insights on heat risk governance and incremental adaptation from ten urban Heat Action Plans, Singh et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000484
The potential of social innovation to shift the limits to climate adaptation, Ziervogel & Hamann , Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability Open Access 10.1016/j.cosust.2024.101491
Understanding how landscape value and climate risk discourses can improve adaptation planning: Insights from Q-method, Johnson et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103947
Climate change impacts on human health
Climate change, mass casualty incidents, and emergency response in the Arctic, Malik et al., Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability Open Access 10.1088/2634-4505/ad8fcc
Impact of climate change on vaccine responses and inequity, Zhang et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-024-02192-y
Understanding the role of climate change in disaster mortality: Empirical evidence from Nepal, Chapagain et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100669
Climate change & geopolitics
Interrelations between security and the zero-carbon energy transition in the Finnish and Norwegian Arctic, Sivonen & Kivimaa, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103841
“Green means good:” challenging the absence of international justice in just transition plans, Letourneau & Schmaus, Environmental Sociology 10.1080/23251042.2024.2427601
Other
Evaluating corporate climate risk assessment results: Lessons learned from Taiwan’s top 100 enterprises, Lee et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100668
Recent Freshening of the Subpolar North Atlantic Increased the Transport of Lighter Waters of the Irminger Current From 2014 to 2022, Fried et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2024jc021184
Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives
The need for carbon-emissions-driven climate projections in CMIP7, Sanderson et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-8141-2024
Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change
The economic cost of extreme weather events, Oxera Consulting LLP, International Chamber of Commerce
The authors estimate that climate-related extreme weather events have cost the global economy more than $2 trillion over the past decade. They used almost 4,000 events which impacted a total of 1.6 billion people between 2014 and 2023. In the last two full years alone, global economic damages reached $451 billion – representing a 19% increase compared to the previous eight years of the decade. The analysis highlights the acute impact on many developing economies with single extreme weather events often imposing economic costs more than a country’s annual GDP.
In 12 months the renewables market has moved but governments have not, Altieri et al., Ember
The authors analyze national 2030 renewable capacity targets for 96 countries and the EU as a bloc. These countries collectively account for 96% of the world’s renewable capacity, 95% of global electricity sector demand and 94% of global power sector emissions. National targets are sourced from national strategy or plans, executive orders, official projections, or credible third-party studies. National targets are up to date as of 24 October 2024. To calculate an estimated global target, the authors adjusted the target to account for the missing 4% of global renewable capacity.
Global Carbon Budget 2024, Friedlingstein et al., Global Carbon Project
The 2024 Global Carbon Budget projects fossil carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions of 37.4 billion tonnes, up 0.8% from 2023. Despite the urgent need to cut emissions to slow climate change, the researchers say there is still “no sign” that the world has reached a peak in fossil CO2 emissions. With projected emissions from land-use change (such as deforestation) of 4.2 billion tonnes, total CO2 emissions are projected to be 41.6 billion tonnes in 2024, up from 40.6 billion tonnes last year. Over the last 10 years, fossil CO2 emissions have risen while land-use change CO2 emissions have declined on average – leaving overall emissions roughly level over that period. This year, both fossil and land-use change CO2 emissions are set to rise, with drought conditions exacerbating emissions from deforestation and forest degradation fires during the El Niño climate event of 2023-2024. With over 40 billion tonnes released each year at present, the level of CO2 in the atmosphere continues to rise – driving increasingly dangerous global warming.
Climate Fragility Programming Resource Guide, US. Department of State and U.S. Agency for International Development
Climate change impacts are not isolated occurrences. Rather, they interact with additional pressures and contextual factors, resulting in diverse compound risks. This complexity is notably pronounced in fragile, conflict-affected, and vulnerable contexts, where the combined effects of climate change and conflict mutually reinforcing, creating a dual burden. The socioeconomic factors that make a place vulnerable to climate change (e.g., exclusionary political institutions, low economic development, inequitable distribution of key resources) are often also the same factors that can make a place vulnerable to conflict. The ramifications of conflict, spanning both physical destruction and institutional breakdown, exacerbate the deterioration of systems crucial for resilience against climate-related shocks.
Why renewable energy matters in the context of peace and stability, Lentschig et al., Clingendael
Many fragile and conflict-affected states face vulnerabilities due to fossil fuel dependence. Energy access rates in these countries are often extremely low, hindering socioeconomic development. Decentralized renewable energy can help to foster stability and to integrate climate, energy, and peacebuilding efforts. This requires de-risking investments and emphasizing local peace-related benefits of renewable energy projects.
No Escape – On the frontlines of climate change, conflict and forced displacement, Parker et al., United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees
The plight of displaced populations and the communities hosting them have often been underreported and their voices excluded and marginalized. The authors analyze the current realities to reveal a story of immense scale: 90 million displaced people are living in countries with high-to-extreme exposure to climate-related hazards and nearly half out of all forcibly displaced people are bearing the burden of both conflict and the adverse effects of climate change. These include countries like Sudan, Syria, Haiti, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Lebanon, Myanmar, Ethiopia, Yemen, and Somalia.
Understanding Linked Climate and Weather Hazards and the Challenges to Federal Emergency Management, Horn et al., Congressional Research Service
Recent disasters have strained affected state, local, tribal, and territorial governments (SLTTs) and revealed the limits of federal authorities to assist with emergency management activities including disaster response (urgent efforts to save lives and protect property and the environment); recovery (restoring essential services and facilities); and mitigation (reducing long-term risks to life, property, and the environment).
Is the Global Workforce Ready for the Energy Transition?, Romina Bandura and Clara Bonin, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Whether the energy transition happens fast or slow, what is clear is that the global workforce is not ready for the changes to come. Unfortunately, governments are not doing enough to guarantee a just, or even smooth, shift. The authors analyze the workforce implications of the energy transition and presents broad actions that governments, labor, businesses, and civil society actors can take to better prepare workers for the future.
Solving Climate Change. A guide for learners and leaders, Jonathan Koomey and Ian Monroe, IOP Publishing
This book comprehensively frames the climate problem and cuts through common conceptual confusions that impede rapid action. The first chapter describes the history, nature, and scope of the climate problem. The second chapter describes how to stabilize the climate by ending fossil fuels, minimizing non-fossil emissions, and creating a climate-positive biosphere. The authors identify five technical pillars of climate action needed to stabilize the climate, each of which gets a chapter. These include electrifying (almost) everything, decarbonizing the electricity grid, minimizing non-fossil emissions, promoting efficiency and optimization, and removing carbon from the atmosphere. The book then moves beyond the narrow technical and policy focus of most previous climate solutions work by detailing three more “institutional” pillars that require action: aligning incentives, mobilizing money, and elevating truth.
The least developed countries report Leveraging carbon markets for development, Akiwumi et al., United Nations Conference on Trade and Development
The authors ask essential and timely questions about whether, and to what extent, carbon markets can contribute to green structural transformation in the least developed countries. These countries have contributed only marginally to the climate crisis but are among the most climate-vulnerable countries in the world. Most least-developed countries are small emitters of greenhouse gases, yet they have chosen to play an active part in the global response to climate change by setting ambitious targets in their nationally determined contributions. This presents challenges and opens up opportunities for synergies and building bridges across policy areas. The authors highlight the current state of play and the future potential of carbon markets to mobilize finance and undertake mitigation of greenhouse gases in the least developed countries. The institutional requirements and technical capacities necessary for least developed countries to benefit from these markets are examined, while associated challenges and risks are highlighted.
94% of Europeans support measures to adapt to climate change, according to EIB survey, European Investment Bank
Almost three-quarters of people polled across the European Union recognize the need to adapt their lifestyle due to the effects of climate change, according to the annual Climate Survey commissioned by the European Investment Bank. Among the challenges facing their countries, respondents ranked climate change second only to the cost of living. Many believe that investing in adaptation now will not only boost the economy but will also prevent higher costs in the future. The Survey presents the views of over 24,000 respondents from across the European Union and the United States on the topic of climate change. In the EU, 24,148 people took part in the survey, which was conducted in August 2024.
Análise Das Emissões de 1970-2023 Gases de Efeito Estufa e Suas Implicações Para As Metas Climáticas Do Brasil (Analysis of Greenhouse Gas Emissions From 1970-2023 and Their Implications for Brazil’s Climate Goals), Tsai et al., The Climate Observatory and Imaflora
As emissões brutas de gases de efeito estufa do Brasil em 2023 foram de 2,3 bilhões de toneladas de gás carbônico equivalente (GtCO2e) medidas em potencial de aquecimento global em cem anos (GWP) conforme o 5o Relatório de Avaliação (AR5) do IPCC. Isso representa uma redução de 12% em relação a 2022, quando o país emitiu 2,6 bilhões de toneladas. É a maior queda de emissões desde 2009, ano em que o SEEG registrou os menores níveis de poluição climática da série histórica completa iniciada em 1990 (1,77 GtCO2 e). A redução foi puxada pela queda de 24% nas emissões por desmatamento, na esteira da retomada, pelo governo atual, das políticas de comando e controle da devastação na Amazônia. A redução das emissões por desmatamento na floresta tropical foi de 37%, de 1,074 bilhão de toneladas de CO2 e para 687 milhões de toneladas (MtCO2 e).
Brazil’s gross greenhouse gas emissions in 2023 were 2.3 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) measured in 100-year global warming potential (GWP) according to the IPCC’s 5th Assessment Report (AR5). This represents a 12% reduction compared to 2022 when the country emitted 2.6 billion tons. This is the largest drop in emissions since 2009, the year in which the SEEG recorded the lowest levels of climate pollution in the complete historical series starting in 1990 (1.77 GtCO2e). • The reduction was driven by a 24% drop in emissions from deforestation, in the wake of the current government’s resumption of command and control policies to combat devastation in the Amazon. The reduction in emissions from deforestation in the tropical forest was 37%, from 1.074 billion tons of CO2e to 687 million tons (MtCO2e).
Artificial Intelligence for Climate Change Mitigation Roadmap, ICEF
Artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to make very significant contributions to climate change mitigation in the years ahead. This includes incremental gains (such as increasing output at solar farms and improving energy efficiency in buildings) and transformational gains (such as helping discover important new materials for clean energy technologies). Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from computing operations for AI are less than 1%—and perhaps much less than 1%—of global GHG emissions. These emissions will very likely increase in the years ahead, in amounts that could be modest or significant. The main barriers to realizing AI’s potential to help reduce GHG emissions are a lack of data and a lack of trained personnel. Governments, companies, and educational institutions should work together to overcome these barriers.
The authors detail the profound damage caused by the Global North’s unwillingness to do their fair share of climate effort, especially related to climate finance, and how that damage is further exacerbated by the organized obstructionism of the fossil fuel industry and the parasitism of the global rich. They show in detail that there is plenty of money to fund a just, ambitious, effective, and equitable global climate transition, even without implementing the deep systemic changes that are also needed. The authors also detail these badly needed system change reforms, divided into more immediate reforms and the longer-term objectives, needed to allow the world to address growing inequities and stop the climate crisis.
Powering United States Primary Steel Decarbonization, Snook et al., Clean Energy Buyers Association
The U.S. primary steel industry will require 174 terawatt hours (TWh) of electricity annually by 2050 to slash up to 57% of the industry’s emissions and help achieve global aims to reduce carbon emissions. The 174 TWh would be a 159 TWh increase from business-as-usual practices. To power this next generation of steel with carbon-free energy would require at least 28 gigawatts (GW) of solar and wind resources and 58 GW of battery storage by 2050, as well as interregional transmission reform. The report’s findings amplify the need for transmission reform as well as accelerated deployment of carbon-free energy to power these steel-making facilities and processes, retain domestic competitiveness, and reduce emissions deep in corporate supply chains.
Disaster displacements disproportionately impact women, girls in fragile contexts, United Nations Population Fund
Disaster-related internal displacement is a truly universal phenomenon, with major impacts seen in even high- and middle-income countries – including many of the countries that have contributed the most to global climate change. While exposure to disasters is widespread – ability to cope is not: Almost a quarter of disaster, displacements took place in countries with low Human Development Index scores (HDI measures social and economic development); almost a quarter took place in low-income countries; over a third of displacements are in countries with the highest vulnerability to climate change and least capacity to address it.
The State Permitting Playbook, Thomas Hochman, Foundation for American Innovation
The United States faces significant challenges in its ability to build and maintain critical infrastructure, develop new technologies, and compete globally in strategic industries. More than 75 percent of the permits authorized by federal law are issued by the states. This presents both challenges and opportunities for state policymakers. States have the power to streamline permitting processes and reduce unnecessary bureaucracy. The author aims to provide state legislators with a comprehensive understanding of the key environmental permitting issues affecting economic development and to highlight potential areas for reform.
Warming Projections Global Update, Ellis et al., Climate Analytics and the NewClimate Institute
The Climate Action Tracker is an independent scientific project that tracks government climate action and measures it against the globally agreed Paris Agreement aim of “holding warming well below 2°C and pursuing efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C. CAT quantifies and evaluates climate change mitigation targets, policies, and actions. It also aggregates country action to the global level, determining likely temperature increases during the 21st century. CAT further develops sectoral analysis to illustrate the required pathways for meeting the global temperature goals.
Climate Change’s Four Irelands 2023: An Audience Segmentation Analysis, Desmond et al., Yale Program on Climate Change Communication
The author’s analysis identified four climate change audiences in Ireland. The Alarmed (34% of the Irish population) understand that human-caused climate change is a real and immediate threat. The Concerned (48% of the Irish population) are convinced that climate change is serious, but compared to the Alarmed are less worried and view it as a less immediate threat. The Concerned also have lower levels of support for climate change policies. For instance, only 35% of the Concerned think climate change should be a very high priority for the Government of Ireland, compared to 66% of Alarmed. The Cautious (14% of the Irish population) think climate change is happening but are less sure of the causes and are less likely to think it will affect them personally. The Doubtful (4% of the Irish population) are not worried about climate change and do not perceive it as a threat.
Deploying a World-Renowned Advanced Nuclear Industry in Texas, Texas Advanced Nuclear Reactor Working Group, Public Utility Commission of Texas
The authors outline policy recommendations for consideration by the Texas Legislature that would establish Texas as the centralized location for manufacturing and global deployment of small modular advanced nuclear reactors. The benefits of advanced nuclear energy for Texas include enhancing the reliability of the ERCOT grid by providing safe, reliable, and affordable power; enhancing Texas’ energy security and meeting growing power demand; promoting economic development and unlocking new industry opportunities; and cementing Texas’ status as the energy capital of the world.
COP out: Azerbaijan, the Caucasus, and Central Asia building three times as much fossil as wind and utility-scale solar capacity, Norman et al., Global Energy Monitor
The COP29 climate change conference falls at a critical time, as countries evaluate their pledges to climate action before submitting revised ambitions in respective Nationally Determined Contributions — or NDCs — next year. Stimulating collective ambition requires leadership, precisely what COP29 host Azerbaijan has yet to deliver in its plans. The host nation’s approach is modest, at best, with wind and solar projects in development only expected to bring about a 10% increase in renewables share of capacity by 2027 and no plans for further projects beyond that date. Global Energy Monitor’s Global Integrated Power Tracker data indicate similarly low levels of progress against unambitious targets across the region, with a 13 GW deficit in targeted renewable capacity additions among Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) countries. At the same time, the fossil-powered buildout continues apace, with more than three times as much fossil capacity under construction in the CCA region than from wind and utility-scale solar. Course correction is essential to uphold the collective pledges on energy made at COP28.
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