Skeptical Science New Research for Week #41 2023

Posted on 12 October 2023 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack

Open access notables

Among five items in this week’s government/NGO section is Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory’s annual report Utility-Scale Solar, 2023 Edition, chock-a-block with statistics and graphs quantifying an explosion of installed permanent  energy sources. Photovoltaic deployment is accelerating and now outpacing wind as costs have rapidly plunged. Given the natural properties of wind and solar energy supplies, reserve power storage is very much in frame. Current battery storage capacity is about 22GWh, what a sizeable nuclear plant could deliver over the course of 10 hours or so. There’s of course much more to be done but it’s also true that we’re only now beginning to seriously tackle the job of energy modernization.

The Anthropocene is best understood as an ongoing, intensifying, diachronous event: Is our species’ impact akin to the Deccan Traps, in our case a fleshy but still gassy flood? Or perhaps we’re more like a big brainless rock coming in from outer space, Homo bolidus. Flood basalts and small asteroids striking Earth are thought of as geologic events as opposed to epochs. Publishing in BOREAS, Walker et al. argue that we’re best recorded as an unfolding geologic event (what many would call a disaster) as opposed to being chronologized as an epoch. The authors acknowledge that the term “anthropocene” is already embedded in our parlance but remind us:

..the idea that human impact on the Earth system can be understood in terms of an effectively instantaneous transition from the Holocene Series/Epoch to an Anthropocene series/epoch specifiable to a moment in time in the mid-20th century ignores the time-transgressive transformative complexity and progressively amplified development that is evident in the material records. When this stratigraphical and other evidence are analysed objectively and without imposing a rigid chronostratigraphical framework, the picture emerges of a much more diachronous set of transformations, speeding up significantly in the 20th and 21st centuries, and that are most appropriately characterized as an unfolding and intensifying Anthropocene Event.

Aside from nodding to formalities, Is this ontology important, on the street? Maybe. Unlike flood basalts and asteroid impacts, we have brains, and we still have control over our own “event.”  Accepting that we’ve entered an epoch called the Anthropocene seems a bit fatalistic and even passive by comparison with controlling an ongoing event of our own construction. 

Vecellio et al. in Greatly enhanced risk to humans as a consequence of empirically determined lower moist heat stress tolerance: “Global mean surface air temperatures have risen by about 1 °C in the past century and are projected to increase by another 1–6 °C by 2100 depending on future greenhouse gas emissions and the model used.” That’s a range of 5 degrees, uncomfortably large given the impacts of “only” 2°C identified in this paper. The authors assert that their new analysis constrains previous work indicating broader impacts, which is nice to hear. However, they also point out important caveats on wet bulb temperature danger thresholds of the present work:

“It is important to note that these Tw thresholds were created for a young and healthy population, albeit unacclimatized, doing minimal activity.This means that thresholds are certainly lower for those who are more vulnerable to the heat, either through age, body size, and morphology, comorbidities, medication use, or any physiological or behavioral impairment to thermoregulatory capacity. Additionally, these thresholds did not take the impact of solar radiation on human thermal balance into account which will likely also modify thresholds. Thus, some components of the real impact on populations are likely to be underestimated in this study. The increases in heat stress evidenced in this study must lead to changes to daily life and the need for large-scale adaptation efforts to mitigate heat stress risk.

“People like best when their money is spent in a logically consistent way.” That might be the shortest  possible synopis of Designing an acceptable and fair carbon tax: The role of mental accounting, just published by Mus, Mercier and Chevallier in PLOS Climate. The team find broad agreement with previous work testing how targeted spending affects support for carbon taxation. But they don’t stop there. This seems a signficant new takeaway: 

Subgroup analyses revealed that the preference for matched earmarking is not conditional on participants’ age, gender, education level, residence area, political ideology, perceived income level, trust towards others and the government, the priority given to environmental protection, and the perception of the tax effectiveness. Even in subgroups that are initially more opposed to carbon taxation (e.g., citizens who prioritize environmental protection to a lesser extent, or who display low levels of trust, using matched earmarking greatly increases support for a carbon tax.

With that the authors notably extend information that ought to be of solid value to legislators and other policymakers crafting carbon taxation tools for climate mitigation. Hopefully this work will find its way to those who can best use it. 

125 articles in 53 journals by 723 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

Combined effects of Arctic tropospheric warming and La Niña events on enhanced Eurasian cold anomalies, Zhang et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.107045

Evaluating the contribution of climate change and urbanization to the reversal in maximum surface wind speed decline: Case study in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, China, Liu et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2023.101713

Extreme heat waves in June 2021 over Europe regulated by shrinking Eurasian snow cover in mid–high latitudes, Ji & Fan, Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.107049

Investigating the typicality of the dynamics leading to extreme temperatures in the IPSL-CM6A-LR model, Noyelle et al., Climate Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-023-06967-5

Warming-induced contraction of tropical convection delays and reduces tropical cyclone formation, Zhang, Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-41911-5

Observations of climate change, effects

Analysis of precipitation-related climatic conditions in European plain regions, Berényi et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2023.100610

Changes in European fire weather extremes and related atmospheric drivers, Giannaros & Papavasileiou Papavasileiou, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109749

Changes of extreme climate indices on the Mongolian Plateau during 1981-2020 based on ERA5 reanalysis, Zhu & Zhao Zhao, Theoretical and Applied Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00704-023-04567-1

Ecosystem and soil respiration radiocarbon detects old carbon release as a fingerprint of warming and permafrost destabilization with climate change, Schuur et al., Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences Open Access 10.1098/rsta.2022.0201

Global climate-change trends detected in indicators of ocean ecolog, Cael et al., Nature Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41586-023-06321-z

Increasing Fire Weather Potential Over Northeast China Linked to Declining Bering Sea Ice, Liu et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl105931

Long-term air temperature trends in North Cyprus, Bey et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00704-023-04689-6

Seasonal advance of intense tropical cyclones in a warming climate, Shan et al., Nature Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41586-023-06544-0

The extreme heat wave of late July/early August 2021 in Greece under the context of the direct effect of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, Giannaros et al., Atmospheric Science Letters Open Access pdf 10.1002/asl.1191

Warming and lateral shift of the Gulf Stream from in situ observations since 2001, Todd & Ren, Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-023-01835-w

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

A roadmap to estimating agricultural ammonia volatilization over Europe using satellite observations and simulation data, Abeed et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-23-12505-2023

Assessment of Ocean Temperature Trends for the Scotian Shelf and Gulf of Maine Using 22 CMIP6 Earth System Models, Wang et al., Atmosphere Open Access pdf 10.1080/07055900.2023.2264832

Climate-driven 21st century Caspian Sea level decline estimated from CMIP6 projections, Samant & Prange, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-01017-8

Predicting the contribution of climate change on North Atlantic underwater sound propagation, Possenti et al., PeerJ Open Access 10.7717/peerj.16208

Projected changes in extreme climate events over Africa under 1.5 , 2.0 and 3.0 global warming levels based on CMIP6 projections, Ayugi et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106872

The change of Southern Hemisphere extratropical cyclone precipitation characteristics in SSP5-8.5 scenario in CMIP6 models, Xu et al., Climate Dynamics 10.1007/s00382-023-06686-x

The weakening AMOC under extreme climate change, Madan et al., Climate Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-023-06957-7

Tropical Volcanic Eruptions and Low Frequency Indo-Pacific Variability Drive Extreme Indian Ocean Dipole Events, Tiger & Ummenhofer, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl103991

Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

A machine learning approach to rapidly project climate responses under a multitude of net-zero emission pathways, Kitsios et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-01011-0

Distributional added value analysis of daily CORDEX-CORE RegCM4-7 historical precipitation simulations over Africa, Gnitou et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106818

Long-term variability in immersion-mode marine ice-nucleating particles from climate model simulations and observations, Raman et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-23-5735-2023

Quantification of uncertainties in projections of extreme daily precipitation simulated by CMIP6 GCMs over homogeneous regions of India, Nair et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.8269

Revisiting the bias correction of climate models for impact studies, Dinh & Aires, Climatic Change 10.1007/s10584-023-03597-y

Cryosphere & climate change

Basal melt rates and ocean circulation under the Ryder Glacier ice tongue and their response to climate warming: a high-resolution modelling study, Wiskandt et al., The Cryosphere Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-17-2755-2023

CRYO, Gomez, Manual of Operating Room Techniques Open Access 10.5005/jp/books/11974_26

Basal melt rates and ocean circulation under the Ryder Glacier ice tongue and their response to climate warming: a high-resolution modelling study, Wiskandt et al., The Cryosphere Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-17-2755-2023

Post-Little Ice Age rock wall permafrost evolution in Norway, Czekirda et al., The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-17-2725-2023

Sea level & climate change

Localized uplift, widespread subsidence, and implications for sea level rise in the New York City metropolitan area, Buzzanga et al., Science Advances Open Access pdf 10.1126/sciadv.adi8259

Long-term climate change impacts on regional sterodynamic sea level statistics analyzed from the MPI-ESM large ensemble simulation, Nandini-Weiss et al., Climate Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-023-06982-6

Small Island Developing States under threat by rising seas even in a 1.5 °C warming world, Vousdoukas et al., Nature Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41893-023-01230-5

Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry

Estimating summer sea ice extent in the Weddell Sea during the early 19th century, Love & Bigg, Climate of the Past Open Access pdf 10.5194/cp-19-1905-2023

Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi benefit plants in response to major global change factors, Tang et al., Ecology Letters Open Access pdf 10.1111/ele.14320

Asymmetric impacts of surface thaw onset change on seasonal vegetation growth in Arctic permafrost, Chen & Jeong, Global Ecology and Biogeography 10.1111/geb.13769

Could an event of extreme drought (2019-2020) affect the feeding ecology of Bubo magellanicus (Gmelin 1788) (Strigiformes: Strigidae) in a Mediterranean region of Chile?, Catchpole Ahumada et al., PeerJ Open Access 10.7717/peerj.15020

Global change impacts on bird biodiversity in South Asia: potential effects of future land-use and climate change on avian species richness in Pakistan, Khaliq et al., PeerJ Open Access 10.7717/peerj.16212

Hybridization of Atlantic puffins in the Arctic coincides with 20th-century climate change, Kersten et al., Science Advances Open Access pdf 10.1126/sciadv.adh1407

Irreversible loss in marine ecosystem habitability after a temperature overshoot, Santana-Falcón et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-01002-1

Meta-analytic and experimental evidence that warmer climate leads to shift from advanced to delayed spring phenology, Guo et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109721

Migratory swans individually adjust their autumn migration and winter range to a warming climate, Linssen et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.16953

Much faster northward shift of latitudinal forest lines in North America than in Eurasia under the early 21st century’s warming, Wang et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2023.104263

Short-term resilience to climate-induced temperature increases for equatorial sea turtle populations, Staines et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.16952

Turbidity buffers coral bleaching under extreme wind and rainfall conditions, Lucas et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2023.106215

Weakening amplification of grassland greening to transpiration fraction of evapotranspiration over the Tibetan Plateau during 2001-2020, Jin et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109661

Where to live? Landfast sea ice shapes emperor penguin habitat around Antarctica, Labrousse et al., Science Advances Open Access pdf 10.1126/sciadv.adg8340

GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

A decrease in the age of respired carbon from the terrestrial biosphere and increase in the asymmetry of its distribution, Sierra et al., Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences Open Access 10.1098/rsta.2022.0200

Anthropogenic activities significantly increase annual greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes from temperate headwater streams in Germany, Mwanake et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-20-3395-2023

Challenges of accounting nitrous oxide emissions from agricultural crop residues, Olesen et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.16962

Daily detection and quantification of methane leaks using Sentinel-3: a tiered satellite observation approach with Sentinel-2 and Sentinel-5p, Pandey et al., Remote Sensing of Environment Open Access 10.1016/j.rse.2023.113716

Deterministic and stochastic components of atmospheric CO inside forest canopies and consequences for predicting carbon and water exchange, Muñoz & Sierra, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109624

Empirical upscaling of OzFlux eddy covariance for high-resolution monitoring of terrestrial carbon uptake in Australia, Burton et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-20-4109-2023

Estimating marine carbon uptake in the northeast Pacific using a neural network approach, Duke et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-20-3919-2023

Estimating regional fossil fuel CO2 concentrations from 14CO2 observations: challenges and uncertainties, Maier et al., Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences Open Access 10.1098/rsta.2022.0203

Freshwater Displacement Effect on the Weddell Gyre Carbon Budget, Taylor et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl103952

Higher burn severity stimulates postfire vegetation and carbon recovery in California, Qiu et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109750

Increased atmospheric CO2 and the transit time of carbon in terrestrial ecosystems, Muñoz et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.16961

Observation-derived 2010-2019 trends in methane emissions and intensities from US oil and gas fields tied to activity metrics, Lu et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2217900120

S2MetNet: A novel dataset and deep learning benchmark for methane point source quantification using Sentinel-2 satellite imagery, Radman et al., Remote Sensing of Environment 10.1016/j.rse.2023.113708

Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001

The impacts of land-use and climate change on the Zoige peatland carbon cycle: A review, Gaffney et al., WIREs Climate Change 10.1002/wcc.862

The temporal response of soil respiration to environment differed from that on spatial scale, Zhao et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109752

Towards near-real-time air pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions: lessons learned from multiple estimates during the COVID-19 pandemic, Guevara et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-23-8081-2023

CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

Mapping methane reduction potential of tidal wetland restoration in the United States, Holmquist et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-00988-y

Replacement reactions for carbon geosequestration may be faster in calcium olivine vs magnesium olivine, Chen, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-01028-5

Decarbonization

Battery metal recycling by flash Joule heating, Chen et al., Science Advances Open Access pdf 10.1126/sciadv.adh5131

Expanded modelling scenarios to understand the role of offshore wind in decarbonizing the United States, Beiter et al., Nature Energy 10.1038/s41560-023-01364-y

Rebound effects undermine carbon footprint reduction potential of autonomous electric vehicles, Onat et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-41992-2

System price dynamics for battery storage, Schauf & Schwenen Schwenen Mineo Wu Guimarães Lautert Chadly Powell, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113836

Geoengineering climate

Responses in the Subpolar North Atlantic in Two Climate Model Sensitivity Experiments with Increased Stratospheric Aerosols, Li et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0225.1

SRM on the table: the role of geoengineering for the stability and effectiveness of climate coalitions, Pezzoli et al., Climatic Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-023-03604-2

Black carbon Aerosols

Investigating an indirect aviation effect on mid-latitude cirrus clouds – linking lidar-derived optical properties to in situ measurements, Groß et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-23-8369-2023

Rapid saturation of cloud water adjustments to shipping emissions, Manshausen et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-23-12545-2023

Climate change communications & cognition

Beyond climate anxiety: Development and validation of the inventory of climate emotions (ICE): A measure of multiple emotions experienced in relation to climate change, Marczak et al., Global Environmental Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102764

Climate Garden 2085: An easily applicable transdisciplinary public art-science experiment for transformative learning about climate change, Schlaepfer-Miller et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10668-023-03899-2

Education in the Anthropocene: assessing planetary health science standards in the USA, Capel et al., Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences Open Access 10.1098/rspb.2023.0975

Embracing climate emotions to advance higher education, Pellitier et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-023-01838-7

Essential but challenging climate change education in the Global South, Ma & Chen , Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-023-01839-6

Free riding in climate protests, Jarke-Neuert et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-023-01833-y

How do countries frame climate change? A global comparison of adaptation and mitigation in UNFCCC National Communications, Wright et al., Regional Environmental Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10113-023-02113-3

Pipeline populism: grassroots environmentalism in the twenty-first century, Barros Leal Farias, Environmental Politics Open Access pdf 10.1080/09644016.2023.2264986

The concern about main crises such as the Covid-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and climate change’s impact on energy-saving behavior, Liobikien? et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113678

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

A quantitative assessment of vulnerability of farming communities to extreme precipitation events in Lower Vellar River sub-basin, India, Jayadas & Ambujam, Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-022-02645-4

Characterizing patterns of seasonal drought stress for use in common bean breeding in East Africa under present and future climates, Jha et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109735

Climate-induced decline in the quality and quantity of European hops calls for immediate adaptation measures, Mozny et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-41474-5

Impact of climate change under the RCP8.5 emission scenario on multivariable agroclimatic indices in Western Canada from convection-permitting climate simulation, Agyeman et al., Anthropocene 10.1016/j.ancene.2023.100408

The European Green Deal improves the sustainability of food systems but has uneven economic impacts on consumers and farmers, Guyomard et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-01019-6

The impacts of aridification on land surface phenological changes in the farming-pastoral ecotone of northern China based on the climatic zoning method, Zhang et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-023-04669-w

Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

An examination of flood resilience in London Borough of Southwark, Nelson & Ahmadpoor, Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2023.101692

Analysis of precipitation-related climatic conditions in European plain regions, Berényi et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2023.100610

Detecting long-term Arctic surface water changes, Olthof et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-023-01836-9

Investigation of landslide hazard areas in the municipality of Cunha (Brazil) and climate projections from 2024 to 2040, de Souza et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2023.101710

Long-period trend analysis of annual and seasonal rainfall in West Bengal, India (1901–2020), Halder et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00704-023-04577-z

MOPREDAS&century database and precipitation trends in mainland Spain, 1916–2020, Gonzalez-Hidalgo et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.8060

Reply to: Detecting long-term Arctic surface water changes, Webb et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-023-01837-8

Climate change economics

Achieving decent living standards in emerging economies challenges national mitigation goals for CO2 emissions, Huo et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-42079-8

Carbon intensity of global crude oil trading and market policy implications, Dixit et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-41701-z

Modelling the growth dynamics of sustainable renewable energy – Flourishing green financing, Trivedi et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113846

Multilateral environmental agreements and the growth of total factor productivity in developing countries: evidence from the foreign direct investment channel, Tsomb & Atangana, Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-022-02598-8

Scrutinizing the existence of the environmental Kuznets curve in the context of foreign direct investment, trade, and renewable energy in Bangladesh: impending from ARDL method, Rahman et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability Open Access 10.1007/s10668-023-03940-4

Climate change mitigation public policy research

Anthropological grounds of climate equity principles, Mandard, Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2023.103601

Building a green future: Examining the job creation potential of electricity, heating, and storage in low-carbon buildings, Sovacool et al., The Electricity Journal Open Access 10.1016/j.tej.2023.107274

Co-benefits of climate change mitigation from innovative agricultural water management: a case study of corn agroecosystem in eastern Canada, Sun et al., Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 10.1007/s11027-023-10080-7

Designing an acceptable and fair carbon tax: The role of mental accounting, Mus et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000227

Ownership structure and prices: A case study of the Swedish tradable green certificate market, Coria & Jaraite Coria, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113822

Policy uncertainty, renewable energy, corruption and CO2 emissions nexus in BRICS-1 countries: a panel CS-ARDL approach, Sadiq et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-03546-w

Uncertainty analysis identifies drivers of offshore wind deployment, , Nature Energy 10.1038/s41560-023-01372-y

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

A Delphi assessment of Climate Change Risks in Southern Africa in the 21st Century, J. Scholes et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2023.100566

Diffusion of climate policy integration in adaptation strategies: translating the EU mandate into UK and Danish national contexts, Jensen et al., Regional Environmental Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10113-023-02110-6

Does land security matter in adapting to climate change? an empirical evidence from Benin, Nonvide, Climatic Change 10.1007/s10584-023-03616-y

Exploring the association between health, local area characteristics and climate action plans in the UK: Cross-sectional analysis using administrative data from 2018 and a citizen science ranking of climate action plans from 2021, Brown et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000166

Fallow Agriculture and Climatic Stress Independently Predict Migration During Syria’s 2006-10 Drought, Ash, Regional Environmental Change 10.1007/s10113-023-02115-1

Human rights in climate change adaptation policies: a systematic assessment, Lesnikowski et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2023.2261881

Severity of climate change and deprivation outcomes: Micro-level assessment for sub-Saharan Africa, Bukari & Aluko, Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2023.103593

Climate change impacts on human health

Disentangling local and global climate drivers in the population dynamics of mosquito-borne infections, Cazelles et al., Science Advances Open Access pdf 10.1126/sciadv.adf7202

Greatly enhanced risk to humans as a consequence of empirically determined lower moist heat stress tolerance, Vecellio et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2305427120

Methods of Assessing Health Care Costs in a Changing Climate: A Case Study of Heatwaves and Ambulance Dispatches in Tasmania, Australia, Campbell et al., GeoHealth Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gh000914

Other

Temperature extremes of 2022 reduced carbon uptake by forests in Europe, van der Woude et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-41851-0

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Fallow Agriculture and Climatic Stress Independently Predict Migration During Syria’s 2006-10 Drought, Ash, Regional Environmental Change 10.1007/s10113-023-02115-1

The Anthropocene is best understood as an ongoing, intensifying, diachronous event, Walker et al., Boreas Open Access pdf 10.1111/bor.12636

The consolidated European synthesis of CO2 emissions and removals for the European Union and United Kingdom: 1990–2020, McGrath et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access pdf 10.5194/essd-15-4295-2023

Book reviews

Deliberative Governance for Sustainable Development. An Innovative Solution for Environment, Economy and Society, Arias-Maldonado, Environmental Politics Open Access pdf 10.1080/09644016.2023.2264989

Democratic Norms of Earth System Governance: Deliberative Politics in the Anthropocene, Pfeiffer, Environmental Politics Open Access pdf 10.1080/09644016.2023.2264991

Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Utility-Scale Solar, 2023 Edition, Bolinger et al., Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

The authors present an analysis of empirical plant-level data from the U.S. fleet of ground-mounted photovoltaic (PV), PV + battery, and concentrating solar-thermal power (CSP) plants with capacities exceeding 5 MWAC. While focused on key developments in 2022, the authors explore trends in deployment, technology, capital and operating costs, capacity factors, the levelized cost of solar energy (LCOE), power purchase agreement (PPA) prices, and wholesale market value. Some of the key findings include 10.4 GWAC of new utility-scale PV capacity came online in 2022, bringing cumulative installed capacity to more than 61.7 GWAC across 46 states, 94% of all new utility-scale PV capacity added in 2022 uses single-axis tracking, median installed project costs declined to $1.32/WAC (or $1.07/WDC) in 2022, and plant-level capacity factors vary widely, from 9% to 35% (on an AC basis), with a sample median of 24%.

An Offshore Wind Energy Development Strategy to Maximize Electrical System Benefits in Southern Oregon and Northern California, Douville et al., Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

The authors developed a transmission valuation approach that framed and then comprehensively quantified the value of offshore wind to the power grid under specific development, interconnection, and transmission scenarios. The framework evaluated the offshore wind resources in Northern California and Southern Oregon. In this analysis, offshore wind (OSW) energy is sited in the areas off the West Coast between Coos Bay, Oregon, and Eureka, California. Three generation and transmission scenarios across two future representations of the Western Interconnection (WI) are modeled, including (i) 3.4 gigawatts (GW) of installed OSW capacity connected through a 2030 high voltage alternating current (HVAC) Radial Topology, (ii) 16.3 GW of installed OSW capacity connected through a 2030+ high voltage direct current (HVDC) Radial Topology, and (iii) 16.3 GW of installed OSW capacity connected through a 2030+ multi-terminal high voltage direct current (MTDC) Backbone Topology (Figure ES.1). The final two scenarios retained the first scenario (3.4 GW of OSW) and optimized the siting of the remaining 12.9 GW, unrestricted to existing planning areas.

Zeroing-in on climate change. Three “super solutions” could put the US on a path toward a net-zero economy by 2050, Agalloco et al., ICF Climate Center

The authors model a practical path toward achieving U.S. decarbonization goals with three solutions that are critical pieces of the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL) and Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)—transportation electrification, buildings, and clean energy. With these three “super solutions,” the United States could eliminate more than 40% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2030 and nearly 90% of GHG emissions by 2050.

Countdown to 2045. Realizing California’s Pathway to Net Zero, Edison International

Achieving net zero requires urgent and fundamental changes in how California’s entire energy infrastructure is planned and built. The authors update and expand upon an earlier analysis by incorporating policy updates, expected climate change impacts, market and technology developments, and an in-depth study of electric sector reliability. Achieving net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions requires new and emerging technologies to play a large role, but the exact mix and scale remain uncertain. These technologies, including decarbonized fuels, clean and firm generation, and carbon removal, must also be advanced while policies and regulations remain open to the full potential of emerging solutions. System planning must be reimagined by state agencies and utilities for greater speed, efficiency, integration, and flexibility. Emerging generation technology needs near-term investment to enable longer-term emission reductions. Process and regulatory reforms are necessary to accelerate transmission infrastructure development. Distribution grid evolution is required for utilities to serve electrification.

Blowing in the Wind: State of Play and Projections for Off Shore and Onshore Wind Energy in the EU, WWF European Policy Office, World Wide Fund for Nature

The authors present an in-depth analysis of the state of play on wind energy in the Europen Union (EU). The authors conclude that Member States’ projections are broadly in line with the new Renewable Energy Directive (RED) target of 42.5%. Nevertheless, challenges remain as Member States will have to more than double their wind energy capacity (in GW) and triple their annual deployment, from 16 GW in 2022 to 44 GW in 2030. On top of that, only 10 Member States’ projections are in line with the Paris Agreement Compatible (PAC) scenario to limit global warming to 1.5°C.

Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions

We know it’s frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as “On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light”  but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article’s relevance and importance. 

• Unpaywall offers a browser extension for Chrome and Firefox that automatically indicates when an article is freely accessible and provides immediate access without further trouble. Unpaywall is also unscammy, works well, is itself offered free to use. The organizers (a legitimate nonprofit) report about a 50% success rate

• The weekly New Research catch is checked against the Unpaywall database with accessible items being flagged. Especially for just-published articles this mechansim may fail. If you’re interested in an article title and it is not listed here as “open access,” be sure to check the link anyway. 

How is New Research assembled?

Most articles appearing here are found via  RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance. 

Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database. 

The objective of New Research isn’t to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers’ impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:

• Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a “yes” to this automatically. 
• Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week’s 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.

A few journals offer public access to “preprint” versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. For some key journals this all the mention we’ll see in RSS feeds, so we include such items in New Research. These are flagged as “preprint.”

The section “Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives” includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of “perspectives,” observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.

Suggestions

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Journals covered

A list of journals we cover may be found here. We welcome pointers to omissions, new journals etc.

Previous edition

The previous edition of Skeptical Science New Research may be found here.