Skeptical Science New Research for Week #4 2024

Slow closure of Earth’s carbon cycle, Rothman, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 10.1073/pnas.2310998121

Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001

Synthesis of the land carbon fluxes of the Amazon region between 2010 and 2020, Rosan et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01205-0

The high-resolution Global Aviation emissions Inventory based on ADS-B (GAIA) for 2019–2021, Teoh et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-24-725-2024

The Largely Ignored but Important Role of Non-Rooted, Submersed Vegetation and Small Waterbodies on Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Hassett & Morin, Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jg007902

The strengthened impact of water availability at interannual and decadal time scales on vegetation GPP, Liang et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17138

Vegetation restoration improved aggregation stability and aggregated-associated carbon preservation in the karst areas of Guizhou Province, southwest China, Yang et al., PeerJ Open Access 10.7717/peerj.16699

Wildfire-induced increases in photosynthesis in boreal forest ecosystems of North America, Kim et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.17151

CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

Advances and shortfalls in applying best practices to global tree-growing efforts, Schubert et al., Conservation Letters Open Access pdf 10.1111/conl.13002

Characteristics and monitoring plan in the atmosphere of CO2 leakage from carbon capture and storage projects, Fan et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-04315-5

Decarbonization

A hybrid photocatalytic system enables direct glucose utilization for methanogenesis, Ma et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 10.1073/pnas.2317058121

A review of solar still technology: solution for water scarcity, Chorghe et al., International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology 10.1007/s13762-023-05428-0

All-perovskite-based unassisted photoelectrochemical water splitting system for efficient, stable and scalable solar hydrogen production, Hansora et al., Nature Energy 10.1038/s41560-023-01438-x

Comprehensive review of biomass utilization and gasification for sustainable energy production, Kumar & Vyas , Environment, Development and Sustainability Open Access 10.1007/s10668-023-04127-7

Continuous ammonia synthesis from water and nitrogen via contact electrification, Li et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 10.1073/pnas.2318408121

Highly selective photoelectrochemical CO2 reduction by crystal phase-modulated nanocrystals without parasitic absorption, Wang et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 10.1073/pnas.2316724121

Recent advances in novel materials for photocatalytic carbon dioxide reduction, Lu et al., Carbon Neutralization Open Access pdf 10.1002/cnl2.107

Aerosols

Trends in Seasonal Mean Speciated Aerosol Composition in Remote Areas of the United States From 2000 Through 2021, Hand et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2023jd039902

Climate change communications & cognition

Examining the effects of gasoline prices on public support for climate policies, Hernandez Carballo & Sisco, Nature Energy 10.1038/s41560-024-01449-2

Extinction of experience due to climate change, Soga & Gaston, Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-023-01920-0

The “Think-and-do Tank” Model: Action-oriented Climate Communication Research, Maibach et al., Environmental Communication 10.1080/17524032.2024.2304571

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Aggravation of global maize yield loss risk under various hot and dry scenarios using multiple types of prediction approaches, Yin et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8371

Bayesian calibration of the ICBM/3 soil organic carbon model constrained by data from long-term experiments and uncertainties of C inputs, Menichetti et al., Carbon Management Open Access pdf 10.1080/17583004.2024.2304749

Can traditional management practices help mountain livestock farms in the Spanish Pyrenees cope with climate change?, Muñoz-Ulecia et al., Regional Environmental Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10113-023-02170-8

Cover crop studies: The need for more reliable data, Chaplot & Smith, Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17129

Economic benefits of climate-smart agricultural practices: empirical investigations and policy implications, Sang et al., Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11027-024-10104-w

Effects of changes in climatic means, variability, and agro-technologies on future wheat and maize yields at 10 sites across the globe, Bracho-Mujica et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.109887

Exploring the energy-climate-agriculture (ECA) nexus: a roadmap toward agricultural sustainability in Asian countries, Chandio et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-04418-z

Exploring the vulnerability of the coastal wetlands of India to the changing climate and their adaptation strategies, Debnath et al., International Journal of Biometeorology 10.1007/s00484-024-02620-w

Global reductions in manual agricultural work capacity due to climate change, Nelson et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.17142

Greenhouse gas emissions from US irrigation pumping and implications for climate-smart irrigation policy, Driscoll et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-44920-0

Revitalizing indigenous practices employed by farmers to reduce agriculture’s vulnerability to climate change: a systematic review, Legide et al., Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences 10.1007/s13412-024-00888-3

The impact of climate change on wheat in Turkey, Demirdogen et al., Regional Environmental Change Open Access 10.1007/s10113-023-02172-6

The stomatal traits that conserve water without compromising grapevine carbon gain depend on climate change severity and wine-growing region, Albasha & Bartlett Bartlett, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.109892

Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

Anthropogenic Influences Alter the Response and Seasonality of Evapotranspiration: A Case Study Over Two High Mountain Asia Basins, Maina & Kumar, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl107182

Climatic effects of the Williston Reservoir on Tsay Keh Dene Nation Territory of northern British Columbia, Canada, Onwukwe et al., Climatic Change 10.1007/s10584-024-03683-9

Evaporation Loss From Small Agricultural Reservoirs in a Warming Climate: An Overlooked Component of Water Accounting, Aminzadeh et al., Earth’s Future 10.1029/2023ef004050

Hydrologic Extremes in a Changing Climate: a Review of Extremes in East Africa, Taye & Dyer, Current Climate Change Reports Open Access pdf 10.1007/s40641-024-00193-9

Impact of Anthropogenic Warming on Future Unprecedented Droughts in California: Insights From Multiple Indices and Multi-Model Projections, Zhou et al., Earth’s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef003856

Increasing prevalence of hot drought across western North America since the 16th century, King et al., Science Advances 10.1126/sciadv.adj428

Response of runoff and its components to climate change in the Manas River of the Tian Shan Mountains, YANG & BAI, Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2024.01.005

Updating probable maximum precipitation for Hong Kong under intensifying extreme precipitation events, Lan et al., Climatic Change 10.1007/s10584-023-03663-5

Weakened Increase in Global Near-Surface Water Vapor Pressure During the Last 20 Years, Xu et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl107909

Climate change economics

Analysing the response of CO2 emissions to business cycle in a developing economy: evidence for South Africa post-apartheid era, Espoir et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2023.1321335

Climbing the green ladder in Sub-Saharan Africa: dynamics of financial development, green energy, and load capacity factor, Annor et al., Environment Systems and Decisions 10.1007/s10669-023-09959-2

What drives more for macroeconomic instability-carbon inequality or income inequality? Panel evidence from emerging economies, Sahu & Mahalik, Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-04455-8

Climate change mitigation public policy research

Analysing the nexus between clean energy expansion, natural resource extraction, and load capacity factor in China: a step towards achieving COP27 targets, Usman et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10668-023-04399-z

Assessment on the synergistic effect of pollution and carbon reductions in low-carbon city pilot policy: based on effectiveness and efficiency perspectives, Fan et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-04421-4

Climate-related prudential regulation: emerging perspectives and policy implications, Hidalgo-Oñate et al., Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 10.1016/j.cosust.2023.101410

Combinatorial auctions for renewable energy — potentials and challenges, Ehrhart et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.113988

Creating the Dutch One Health Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), Dellar et al., Regional Environmental Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10113-023-02169-1

Critical review of the effects and role of the Climate Change Response Act of 2023 in Taiwan’s net-zero ambition of 2050, Gao et al., Carbon Management Open Access pdf 10.1080/17583004.2024.2306319

Paris targets within reach by aligning, broadening and strengthening net-zero pledges, Dafnomilis et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-01184-8

Public acceptability of policy instruments for reducing fossil fuel consumption in East Africa, Harring et al., Climate Policy Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2024.2302319

The influence of energy transition, and natural resources on carbon emissions in China: an augmented ARDL application, Amin et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-04398-0

When energy doesn’t add up: use of an energyshed framework in assessing progress towards renewable energy transitions, Garrett et al., Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1088/2634-4505/ad0fef

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Climatic risks to adaptive capacity, Serdeczny et al., Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11027-023-10103-3

Financial constraints and short-term planning are linked to flood risk adaptation gaps in US cities, Lu & Nakhmurina, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-01163-z

Local multilevel governance arrangements for climate change planning and management in Kumasi, Ghana, Asibey et al., Environmental Science & Policy 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103680

Participatory justice and climate adaptation for water management in Small Island Developing States: a systematic literature review and discussion, Bailey et al., Regional Environmental Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10113-024-02182-y

Reducing social vulnerability to climate change: the role of microfinance organisations, Nuruzzaman et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2024.2305762

Climate change impacts on human health

A panel data study on the effect of climate change on life expectancy, Roy, PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000339

Comparing Approximated Heat Stress Measures Across the United States, Ahn et al., GeoHealth Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gh000923

Editorial Note: A panel data study on the effect of climate change on life expectancy, , PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000368

Potential radon risk in permafrost regions of the Northern Hemisphere under climate change: A review, Zhang et al., Earth 10.1016/j.earscirev.2024.104684

Climate change & geopolitics

Towards an increasingly biased view on Arctic change, López-Blanco et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-023-01903-1

Climate change impacts on human culture Other

Observed Extreme Freshening in the Central Andaman Sea Induced by Strong Positive Indian Ocean Dipole, Liu et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 10.1029/2023jc020406

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

COP28: Loss and damage, fossil fuels and the limits of climate diplomacy, Harris, PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000351

Editorial: Building flood resilience under climate change, Wang et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1365749

Editorial: Decision making for the net zero transformation: considerations and new methodological approaches, Workman et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2024.1355110

The principles of natural climate solutions, Ellis et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-44425-2

“Grid-enhancing technologies” can squeeze a lot more power from the existing electric grid, Carey, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1073/pnas.2322803121

Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

A Race to the Top, Southeast Asia, Smith et al., Global Energy Monitor

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries have over 28 GW of operating utility-scale solar and wind capacity and a 20% increase in operating capacity since January 2023 and make up 9% of ASEAN countries’ total electrical capacity. Vietnam has the largest share of operating utility-scale solar and wind capacity in the region (19 GW). Thailand and the Philippines follow, each with 3 GW of operating utility-scale solar and wind capacity. The Philippines and Vietnam are emerging leaders globally. With 99 GW and 86 GW respectively for prospective utility-scale solar and wind, they have the 8th and 9th largest prospective capacity worldwide. The ASEAN countries have almost five times more prospective offshore wind power than prospective onshore wind in the region, while prospective offshore capacity in the region (124 GW) is nearly twice that of the current global offshore operating capacity (69 GW). In order for ASEAN countries to meet their goal of 35% installed renewable energy capacity by 2025, 17 GW of additional utility-scale solar and wind capacity needs to become operational among ASEAN members in the next two years, yet only 3% (6 GW) of its 220 GW of prospective utility-scale solar and wind is currently in construction.

Destination Zero, A deep dive into the global state of corporate climate action, Kähkönen et al., South Pole, The Climate Company

The authors report that the overwhelming majority of climate-conscious companies say they have set a net zero target and report that this target is vital to their commercial success. Customer demand is the leading driver of climate action. Among this group, net zero seems to be standard practice and is considered business-critical. Based on these results, one would expect such companies to be proudly communicating their climate action. However, when digging deeper into the findings, the authors see a critical contradiction that has the potential to severely delay our collective efforts on net zero. The survey shows that a majority of surveyed companies are actively decreasing their climate communications. The collected data offers a rare glimpse into this tension, which sits at the heart of corporate climate action today. It reveals that regulation, industry requirements on reporting on climate goals and heightened scrutiny from various stakeholders are the core reasons for companies keeping quiet about their climate goals and progress.

The Great Reallocation. Capital expenditure on energy production, Bond et al., RMI

The authors show that contrary to popular belief, the buildout of renewable energy supply does not require a surge in capital expenditure (capex). As fossil fuel capex falls, the net growth in capex is only 2 percent per year, in line with the past seven years, and much lower than in the decade after 2000. Financing the energy transition is a story of capital reallocation. Over the next seven years, renewable capex will roughly double and fossil fuel capex will roughly halve under core International Energy Agency scenarios. Falling fossil fuel capex will therefore provide half of the growth in renewable capex. This capital reallocation is very achievable. The required growth in energy supply capex of 2 percent is lower than the expected global GDP growth of 3 percent and lower than the annual increase in energy supply capex from 2000–2010 of 9 percent. Given that the capital formation in 2022 was $27 trillion, the additional capex on energy supply would constitute only 1 percent of global capex. Achieving the achievable still requires work. The key now is to ensure that capex moves from generation to grids, and from developed markets to emerging markets. The primary impediments to change are policy and expertise rather than the volume or availability of capital.

DRAFT: State of California Sea Level Rise Guidance: 2024 Science and Policy Update, California Sea Level Rise Science Task Force, California Ocean Protection Council, California Ocean Science Trust

Failure to adequately prepare now will have significant cost implications in the future and consequences to public health and safety, wildlife and habitats, private property, and infrastructure necessary to maintain daily living in California. It will also have impacts on communities burdened by social and environmental injustice who are already disproportionately impacted by climate change, industrialization, and pollution. To build resilience for coastal communities and ecosystems, thoughtful science-based planning and adaptation actions need to happen now. This updated State of California Sea Level Rise Guidance provides the best available science and policy recommendations from which to make these decisions. California’s enduring connection to the coast demands that we acknowledge the threats on the horizon and innovate to adapt to the changes ahead.

Health Effects of Climate Change (HECC) in the UK. State of the evidence 2023, Gillingham et al., UK Health Security Agency

To secure health there is a need to understand both the impacts of climate change on health but also, importantly, effective interventions to protect health. The authors bring together up-to-date evidence to inform policies and actions to secure health. The authors provide an authoritative summary of the scientific evidence on the health effects of climate change, potential implications for public health, and gaps in evidence. The report is primarily a scientific and technical document that collates up-to-date knowledge to inform policy and action in the United Kingdom. The report also acts as a resource for public health and other professional bodies and groups, government departments and authorities, science-facing civil society organizations, and interested stakeholders and partners with a role in securing health from the effects of climate change.

SubjectToClimate Climate Education Essentials Courses, SubjectToClimate

This is a series of free, online courses developed by SubjectToClimate to help teachers teach about climate change. Level 0 is about climate change basics. It includes five modules, including the history of climate science, climate science basics, and climate solutions. Level 0 takes approximately 4 hours to complete. Level 1 is about teaching climate change. It includes nine modules, including reasons for teaching about climate change, how to incorporate climate change into the curriculum, and ways to address misinformation. Level 1 takes approximately 6 hours to complete. Level 2 guides teachers in developing K-12 inquiry-based climate lesson plans for all subjects. It includes ten modules, including how to effectively choose resources, how to align the lesson plan to standards, and how to create accompanying materials. Level 2 takes approximately 4 hours to complete.

How Economics Can Tackle the ‘Wicked Problem’ of Climate Change, Stiglitz et al., School of International and Public Affairs/Institute of Global Politics, Columbia University

Addressing the harmful effects of climate change requires an understanding of economic tradeoffs, the politics of policymaking, and the strategy of diplomacy. While early prescriptions for climate solutions focused on idealistic “optimal” policies and all-encompassing global treaties, a more nuanced and realistic vision for climate progress has emerged. As befits a “wicked problem,” a wide range of policies and insights from across scientific disciplines are needed to promote collective action, reduce emissions, and help the world achieve a more sustainable future.

Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions

We know it’s frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as “On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light”  but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article’s relevance and importance. 

• Unpaywall offers a browser extension for Chrome and Firefox that automatically indicates when an article is freely accessible and provides immediate access without further trouble. Unpaywall is also unscammy, works well, is itself offered free to use. The organizers (a legitimate nonprofit) report about a 50% success rate

• The weekly New Research catch is checked against the Unpaywall database with accessible items being flagged. Especially for just-published articles this mechansim may fail. If you’re interested in an article title and it is not listed here as “open access,” be sure to check the link anyway. 

How is New Research assembled?

Most articles appearing here are found via  RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance. 

Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database. 

The objective of New Research isn’t to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers’ impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:

• Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a “yes” to this automatically. 
• Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week’s 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.

A few journals offer public access to “preprint” versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. For some key journals this all the mention we’ll see in RSS feeds, so we include such items in New Research. These are flagged as “preprint.”

The section “Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives” includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of “perspectives,” observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.

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Journals covered

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