Skeptical Science New Research for Week #31 2024
24 min read
Skeptical Science New Research for Week #31 2024
Posted on 1 August 2024 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open access notables
The limits of “resilience”: Relationalities, contradictions, and re-appropriations, Davies & Arrieta, WIREs Climate Change [perspective]:
We define manufactured irresilience as damage incurred by people, places and planet, which undermines the possibility of resilience, and results from causally discernible and remediable human behaviors. Building on the “critical resilience” literature (De Verteuil & Golubchikov, 2016), we propose irresilience as a provocative analytical twist on the pairing of concepts. However, instead of a continuum leading from one condition to another, such as vulnerability-security (Detraz, 2011), we position resilience and irresilience as causally related opposites. We argue that conceiving of irresilience and resilience as a dialectical pair puts the latter in its place, demanding a renewed focus on causation, the scope for human agency and repair. The article therefore presents a new Perspective for research approaching resilience both critically and dialectically.
Increasing intensity of enterovirus outbreaks projected with climate change, Baker et al., Nature Communications:
Here we evaluate the environmental and demographic drivers of enterovirus transmission, as well as the implications of climate change for future enterovirus circulation. We leverage pre-vaccination era data on polio in the US as well as data on two enterovirus A serotypes in China and Japan that are known to cause hand, foot, and mouth disease. Using mechanistic modeling and statistical approaches, we find that enterovirus transmission appears positively correlated with temperature although demographic factors, particularly the timing of school semesters, remain important. We use temperature projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to simulate future outbreaks under late 21st-century climate change for Chinese provinces. We find that outbreak size increases with climate change on average, though results differ across climate models depending on the degree of wintertime warming. In the worst-case scenario, we project peak outbreaks in some locations could increase by up to 40%.
Communicating the Links between Climate Change and Heat Waves with the Climate Shift Index, Thomas-Walters et al., Weather, Climate, and Society:
Extreme weather, including heat waves, poses a significant threat to ecosystems and human health. As global temperatures continue to rise, the frequency and severity of heat waves will increase. Because of this, communicating heat-related risks to the public is increasingly important. One commonly used communication tool is the Climate Shift Index (CSI), which establishes how much more likely an extreme weather event, such as a heat wave, has been made by climate change. To test the impact of the CSI on people’s understanding of the links between climate change and extreme weather, we conducted an experiment informing 3902 American adults that climate change made the July 2023 heat wave in the United States at least 5 times more likely. In addition to this standard CSI wording and two control messages, we also explored the effectiveness of reframing magnitude as a percentage and whether mechanistic and attribution explanations of the relationship between climate change and heat waves further increase understanding. All treatments increased the belief that climate change made the July 2023 heat wave more likely and is making heat waves in general more likely as well. Additionally, we found that expressing the magnitude as a percentage was more effective than the standard CSI framing. We also found that just talking about the heat wave, without mentioning climate change, was enough to change beliefs.
Laying waste to the deep: parallel narratives of marine carbon dioxide removal and deep-seabed mining, Lidström et al., npj Ocean Sustainability:
The deep ocean is increasingly featured in climate solution discussions. An emerging narrative suggests that marine carbon dioxide removal (mCDR) is essential to meet global climate targets. The argument made is similar to claims that deep-seabed mining (DSM) is necessary to enable widespread electrification, in that both are framed as helping to address climate change. We compare the structure and history of these narratives, highlighting that while potential negative impacts on marine life have emerged as a central feature in debates about DSM, environmental and social risks associated with mCDR are yet to receive similar recognition. In light of this comparison, we argue that potential harm needs to be further emphasized in considerations of deploying mCDR.
The role of framing in public support for direct air capture: A moral hazard survey experiment in the United States, Sloot & Bostrom, Energy Research & Social Science:
Building on previous research, we investigate four novel ways of framing the use of a form of carbon removal from the atmosphere that is currently of broad interest, direct air capture (DAC). We frame DAC use in terms of either necessity (DAC for limiting climate change being either essential or dependent on future mitigation) or temporality (DAC of either past or future emissions from the atmosphere). In a survey experiment with a nationally representative U.S. sample (N = 2891) we examined how these frames affect public support and risk perceptions in the U.S. for DAC, and the roles of prior awareness of DAC, climate change worry, and their interactions with the different frames. Frames differentially influenced support depending on prior awareness and climate change worry, higher levels of which were associated with more support for DAC (but also greater anticipated moral hazard) independent of the frames. Overall, framing only weakly affected public support, which was on average modest. These insights extend previous findings regarding the limited usefulness of moral hazard frames, but highlight the potential value of tailoring DAC messaging to different target audiences.
From this week’s government and NGO section:
The Missing GHG Emissions: How Satellite Data Can Quantify the Real Climate Risk of Oil & Gas Companies, Patricia Pina and Renato Coelho, Clarity AI:
Less than 10% of companies report Scope 3 investment emissions data. While a growing number of companies disclose sustainability-related information, there are still challenges around data completeness, consistency, and transparency. For example, all publicly traded oil and gas companies listed in the MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) report their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Still, over 90% of these companies do not incorporate the Scope 3 emissions from their investments in their reports. Leveraging a collaboration with Climate TRACE, the authors analyze the largest 20 companies in the oil and gas industry, quantifying GHG emissions from all physical assets, including their minority investments. They found that the relative ranking of these companies in terms of carbon intensity is significantly affected by the inclusion or exclusion of the assets they own but do not operate. Additionally, the authors assessed the effect of these “missing emissions” on the carbon footprint of a theoretical portfolio investing in the largest 20 oil and gas companies — the carbon footprint increases by 24% when emissions from these assets are included.
Synergy Solutions for Climate and SDG Action: Bridging the Ambition Gap for the Future We Want, Buchner et al., United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Secretariat:
It is no longer feasible to treat climate change and sustainable development separately, with over 80 percent of Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) targets directly linked to climate. But there is a way, to tackle these two critical agendas together so that we can multiply impacts and bridge investment gaps worth trillions of dollars. We must break down fragmentation and silos, and act on the climate emergency and sustainable development together, or we risk catastrophe on both fronts. Deep transformative changes are needed, and are possible, now. We know the issues that need to be addressed. We have solutions that are inclusive and equitable. Focusing on synergies between climate action and sustainable development is vital to overcoming the challenges, providing win-win solutions, and minimizing trade-offs. And there are many inspiring examples of how this can be done.
123 articles in 58 journals by 921 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
A more quiescent deep ocean under global warming, Wang et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-024-02075-2
Extreme summer temperature anomalies over Greenland largely result from clear-sky radiation and circulation anomalies, Blau et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01549-7
Impact of ocean heat transport on sea ice captured by a simple energy balance model, Aylmer et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01565-7
Impact of Warming Trend in Western Equatorial Pacific on Modulating the Triple-Dip La Niña and Its Associated Teleconnection in 2020–2022, Kao et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl109702
Local hydroclimate drives differential warming rates between regular summer days and extreme hot days in the Northern Hemisphere, Srivastava et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100709
Mechanism for compound daytime-nighttime heatwaves in the Barents–Kara Sea during the boreal autumn and their relationship with sea ice variability, Xin et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100712
Observations of climate change, effects
Anthropogenic amplification of precipitation variability over the past century, Zhang et al., Science 10.1126/science.adp0212
Changes in precipitation phases based on the multi-discrimination method in the Tibetan Plateau, Zhang et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107597
Elevation dependent change in ERA5 precipitation and its extremes, Ferguglia et al., Climate Dynamics Open Access 10.1007/s00382-024-07328-6
Urban Heat Island Trends in the Middle East and North Africa: A statistical approach, Tzyrkalli et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.8563
Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects
Causes of extreme events revealed by Rényi information transfer, Paluš et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adn1721
Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects
Diverse Responses of Strong Positive SST and Rainfall Indian Ocean Dipole Events under Greenhouse Warming, Wang et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0631.1
Environments conductive to tropical transitions in the North Atlantic: Anthropogenic climate change influence study, Montoro-Mendoza et al., Atmospheric Research Open Access 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107609
European hot and dry summers are projected to become more frequent and expand northwards, Felsche et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01575-5
Projected navigability of Arctic shipping routes based on climate model FIO-ESM v2.1, Wang et al., Anthropocene Open Access 10.1016/j.ancene.2024.100445
The Indian Ocean Dipole in a warming world, Wang et al., Nature Reviews Earth & Environment 10.1038/s43017-024-00573-7
Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection
An improved and extended parameterization of the CO2 15 µm cooling in the middle and upper atmosphere (CO2&cool&fort-1.0), López-Puertas et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4401-2024
Bayesian hierarchical model for bias-correcting climate models, Carter et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-5733-2024
CMIP6 Models Underestimate Rainfall Trend on South Asian Monsoon Edge Tied to Middle East Warming, Li & Murtugudde, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl109703
Disagreement on the North Atlantic Cold Blob Formation Mechanisms among Climate Models, Fan et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0654.1
Evaluation of the Skill of CMIP6 models in simulating the interannual variability of Subtropical Indian Ocean SST in present climate, Anila & Gnanaseelan, Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-024-05125-z
High resolution regional climate simulation over CORDEX East Asia phase II domain using the COAWST Ocean-atmosphere coupled model, Long et al., Climate Dynamics 10.1007/s00382-024-07356-2
Improved Simulation of Antarctic Sea Ice by Parameterized Thickness of New Ice in a Coupled Climate Model, Fang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl110166
On the suitability of a convolutional neural network based RCM-emulator for fine spatio-temporal precipitation, Doury et al., Climate Dynamics Open Access 10.1007/s00382-024-07350-8
Reduced floating-point precision in regional climate simulations: an ensemble-based statistical verification, Banderier et al., Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2023-2263
Cryosphere & climate change
High Arctic Vegetation Communities With a Thick Moss Layer Slow Active Layer Thaw, Schuuring et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences Open Access 10.1029/2023jg007880
Holocene thinning in central Greenland controlled by the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream, Tabone et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-50772-5
Impact of ocean heat transport on sea ice captured by a simple energy balance model, Aylmer et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01565-7
Sea-ice conditions from 1880 to 2017 on the Northeast Greenland continental shelf: a biomarker and observational record comparison, Davies et al., The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-18-3415-2024
Ships are projected to navigate whole year-round along the North Sea route by 2100, Zhao et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01557-7
Swirls and scoops: Ice base melt revealed by multibeam imagery of an Antarctic ice shelf, Wåhlin et al., Science Advances 10.1126/sciadv.adn9188
Sea level & climate change
Challenges, Advances and Opportunities in Regional Sea Level Projections: The Role of Ocean-Shelf Dynamics, Jevrejeva et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef004886
Digitizing the Williamstown, Australia Tide-Gauge Record Back to 1872: Insights Into Changing Extremes, McInnes et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2024jc020908
Probabilistic reconstruction of sea-level changes and their causes since 1900, Dangendorf et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access 10.5194/essd-16-3471-2024
Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry
Response of coastal California hydroclimate to the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum, Zhang et al., Climate of the Past Open Access 10.5194/cp-20-1615-2024
Biology & climate change, related geochemistry
Anticipating responses to climate change and planning for resilience in California’s freshwater ecosystems, Power et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2310075121
Can we identify tipping points of resilience loss in Mediterranean rangelands under increased summer drought?, Cardozo et al., Ecology Open Access 10.1002/ecy.4383
Ecological replacement for reef-building corals, Webster & Schindler, Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-024-02064-5
Forest floor environment overrules global change treatment effects on understorey communities in a mesocosm experiment, Lorer et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17443
Impacts of glacial discharge on the primary production in a Greenlandic fjord, Hoshiba et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-024-64529-z
Large potential impacts of marine heatwaves on ecosystem functioning, de Luzinais et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.17437
Long-term climate warming and extreme cold events driving ecological shifts in a deep oligo-mesotrophic lake, Zhu et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.70052
Marine heatwaves in a shifting Southern Ocean induce dynamical changes in primary production, Fernández-Barba et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01553-x
Physiological responses to a changing winter climate in an early spring-breeding amphibian, Schmidt et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.70042
Response of hypoxia to future climate change is sensitive to methodological assumptions, Hinson et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-024-68329-3
Spatial heterogeneity of extinction risk for flowering plants in China, Zhao et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-50704-3
Vegetation growth responses to climate change: A cross-scale analysis of biological memory and time lags using tree ring and satellite data, Tang et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17441
GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry
Application of GM (1,1) to predict the dynamics of stand carbon storage in Pinus Kesiya var. langbianensis natural forests, Gu et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access 10.3389/ffgc.2024.1298804
Asgard archaea modulate potential methanogenesis substrates in wetland soil, Valentin-Alvarado et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-49872-z
Assisted tree migration can preserve the European forest carbon sink under climate change, Chakraborty et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-024-02080-5
Carbon Export in the Subantarctic Zone Revealed by Multi-Year Observations From Biogeochemical-Argo Floats and Sediment Traps, Yang et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles Open Access 10.1029/2024gb008135
Climatological distribution of ocean acidification indicators along the North American ocean margins, Jiang et al., Open Access 10.5194/essd-2024-59
Decadal increases in carbon uptake offset by respiratory losses across northern permafrost ecosystems, See et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-024-02057-4
Dual roles of microbes in mediating soil carbon dynamics in response to warming, Qin et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-50800-4
Enhanced Carbon Accumulation in China’s New Coastal Wetlands Over the 21st Century, Shen et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef004500
High-resolution mapping of forest structure and carbon stock using multi-source remote sensing data in Japan, Li et al., Remote Sensing of Environment 10.1016/j.rse.2024.114322
How does new urbanization affect urban carbon emissions? Evidence based on spatial spillover effects and mechanism tests, Xiang et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.102060
Interannual variations in Siberian carbon uptake and carbon release period, Tran et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-24-8413-2024
Methane Emissions From Seabed to Atmosphere in Polar Oceans Revealed by Direct Methane Flux Measurements, Workman et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2023jd040632
Sediment Resuspension Accelerates the Recycling of Terrestrial Organic Carbon at a Large River-Coastal Ocean Interface, Sun et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles 10.1029/2024gb008213
Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001
Substantial terrestrial carbon emissions from global expansion of impervious surface area, Qiu et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-50840-w
The six rights of how and when to test for soil C saturation, Six et al., Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2023-2221
Thermal sensitivity of soil microbial carbon use efficiency across forest biomes, Ren et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-50593-6
Vulnerability of mineral-associated soil organic carbon to climate across global drylands, Díaz-Martínez et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-024-02087-y
When and why microbial-explicit soil organic carbon models can be unstable, Schwarz et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-21-3441-2024
CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering
Deployment expectations of multi-gigatonne scale carbon removal could have adverse impacts on Asia’s energy-water-land nexus, Ampah et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-50594-5
Estimation of Property Value Changes from Nearby Carbon Capture and Utilization Projects in China, Mei et al., Environmental and Resource Economics 10.1007/s10640-024-00900-y
How to maintain environmental integrity when using state support and the VCM to co-finance BECCS projects – a Swedish case study, Dufour et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1387138
Sustainable design of multiscale CO2 electrolysis: A value sensitive design-based approach, Tsagkari et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103671
Synergies of storing hydrogen at the crest of CO2${rm CO}&{2}$ or other gas storage, Sun et al., Energy & Fuels Open Access 10.1021/ef010067n
The role of framing in public support for direct air capture: A moral hazard survey experiment in the United States, Sloot & Bostrom, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103694
Decarbonization
A framework for considering decarbonisation risks emerging from low-carbon hydrogen supply chains, Carlson & Trencher, Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103685
Geothermal energy in Kenya: Evaluating health impacts and environmental challenges, Rotich et al., Energy for Sustainable Development Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101522
Increasing variable renewables in coal-based energy systems under high electrification in the transport and heating sectors: The case of Kosovo, Meha et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101523
Mapping Africa’s EV revolution, Mutiso, Science 10.1126/science.adr1055
Revealing technological entanglements in uncertain decarbonisation pathways using bayesian networks, Li et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114273
“Assessment of hybrid solar energy potential in semi-arid urban residential buildings: A study on Guelma town in northern Algeria”, Harbi et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101521
Geoengineering climate
Effects of grain size and seawater salinity on magnesium hydroxide dissolution and secondary calcium carbonate precipitation kinetics: implications for ocean alkalinity enhancement, Moras et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-21-3463-2024
Laying waste to the deep: parallel narratives of marine carbon dioxide removal and deep-seabed mining, Lidström et al., npj Ocean Sustainability Open Access 10.1038/s44183-024-00075-5
Aerosols
A model study investigating the sensitivity of aerosol forcing to the volatilities of semi-volatile organic compounds, Irfan et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-24-8489-2024
Climate change communications & cognition
Communicating the Links between Climate Change and Heat Waves with the Climate Shift Index, Thomas-Walters et al., Weather, Climate, and Society Open Access pdf 10.1175/wcas-d-23-0147.1
Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change
Adaptive capacity of winter wheat to potential drought in Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region under RCP8.5 scenario, Ying et al., Climate Resilience and Sustainability Open Access 10.1002/cli2.65
Eddy covariance fluxes of greenhouse gasses observed in a renewed pasture in the southeast of Brazil, Cabral et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110177
Global assessment of production benefits and risk reduction in agroforestry during extreme weather events under climate change scenarios, Dobhal et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access 10.3389/ffgc.2024.1379741
Modeling biochar effects on soil organic carbon on croplands in a microbial decomposition model (MIMICS-BC&v1.0), Han et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4871-2024
Quantification of soil organic carbon: the challenge of biochar-induced spatial heterogeneity, Lotz et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2024.1344524
Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change
A bibliographic review on anthropogenic climate change and drought, Yohannes et al., Environmental Science & Policy 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103830
Critical Effects of Precipitation on Future Colorado River Flow, Hoerling et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0617.1
Elevation dependent change in ERA5 precipitation and its extremes, Ferguglia et al., Climate Dynamics Open Access 10.1007/s00382-024-07328-6
Increased threat of strong typhoons along the Pacific coast of Japan: Combined effect of track change and seasonal advance, Shen et al., Atmospheric Science Letters Open Access 10.1002/asl.1261
Climate change mitigation public policy research
A public values perspective on energy justice: Building a theoretical lens for understanding decision-making in the energy transition, van der Wel et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103677
An energy transition for all: Investigating determinants of citizen support for energy community initiatives on the island of Mayotte, Otte et al., Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103690
Assessment of co-benefits from on-road vehicle electrification in Suzhou City, China, Qian et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.102069
Brazilian energy and carbon footprints: structural changes and sectoral contributions to climate change, Montoya et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-024-05251-8
Clear support for an unclear concept? Public attitudes towards local energy systems in the United Kingdom, Soutar et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103658
Climate justice, forests, and Indigenous Peoples: toward an alternative to REDD + for the Amazon, Osborne et al., Climatic Change Open Access 10.1007/s10584-024-03774-7
From interest to evangelist: Accelerating the adoption of electric vehicles via distinct parking and charging practices in the United Kingdom, Budnitz, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103675
Health benefits of phasing out coal-fired power plants in Ontario, Alberta, and Canada, Öztaner et al., Atmospheric Environment 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2024.120711
Just Energy Transition Partnerships and the future of coal, Ordonez et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-024-02086-z
Photovoltaic systems for multi-unit buildings: Agents’ rationalities for supporting distributed generation diffusion in Brazil, Frate et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114267
Public acceptability of carbon pricing: unravelling the impact of revenue recycling, Barrez, Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2024.2376747
The role of digital social practices and technologies in the Swiss energy transition towards net-zero carbon dioxide emissions in 2050, Stermieri et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114203
When trusting the state is not enough: broader institutional trust and public support for energy transition policies, Bjarnadóttir et al., Environmental Sociology 10.1080/23251042.2024.2381152
Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research
Climate change vulnerability assessment of Kar??yaka, ?zmir, Cangüzel & Hepcan , Natural Hazards Open Access 10.1007/s11069-024-06798-5
Community future climate resilience assessment based on CMIP6, A case study of communities along an urban-rural gradient in Shanghai, Yang et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.101966
Dutch municipalities tackling climate change adaptation to heat stress through mainstreaming across sectors, Baack et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103845
Gender vulnerability assessment to inform gender-sensitive adaptation action: a case study in semi-arid areas of Mali, Segnon et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2024.1418015
Green infrastructure as key tool for climate adaptation planning and policies to mitigate climate change: Evidence from a Pakistani City, Mumtaz, Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.102074
Heatwave vulnerability and climate policy assessment in Central Europe: A comparative study of Hungarian and Slovak cities, Farkas et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.102073
Multidimensional poverty and vulnerability assessment in the face of climate change adaptation in developing economies: focus on ecosystem-based livelihoods in Zambia, Makondo & Thomas, Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-024-05253-6
Nature-based solutions in spatial planning and policies for climate change adaptation: A literature review, Corgo et al., Ambio Open Access 10.1007/s13280-024-02052-1
Climate change impacts on human health
Antibiotic resistance genes: A global change factor, Yang & Grossart Li, Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17448
Climate and Kidney Injury: A Look at the Impact of Meteorological Factors on Kidney Function within Colorado, Macaluso et al., Weather, Climate, and Society 10.1175/wcas-d-23-0116.1
Framework of street grid-based urban heat vulnerability assessment: Integrating entropy weight method and BPNN model, Guo et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.102067
Impacts of climate change-related human migration on infectious diseases, Tsui et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-024-02078-z
Increasing intensity of enterovirus outbreaks projected with climate change, Baker et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-50936-3
Other
Engagement of early career researchers in collaborative assessments of IPCC reports: achievements and insights, Moreno-Ibáñez et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2024.1395040
Evolution of the Climate Forcing During the Two Years After the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai Eruption, Schoeberl et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2024jd041296
From silicon shield to carbon lock-in? The environmental footprint of electronic components manufacturing in Taiwan (2015–2020), Roussilhe et al., Journal of Industrial Ecology Open Access pdf 10.1111/jiec.13487
Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives
Antibiotic resistance genes: A global change factor, Yang & Grossart Li, Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17448
Reconsidering and rescaling climate change predictions for coral reefs, McClanahan, Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-024-02079-y
State of the UK Climate 2023, Kendon et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.8553
The limits of “resilience”: Relationalities, contradictions, and re-appropriations, Davies & Arrieta, WIREs Climate Change Open Access 10.1002/wcc.911
We need targeted policy interventions in the EU to save soil carbon, Mäkipää et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1354695
Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change
The Consumer and Environmental Costs from Uneconomically Dispatching Coal Plants in MISO, Zimmerman et al., Grid Strategies and Natural Resources Defense Council’
The analysis indicates that many coal plants in the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) market are operating at a loss for extended periods, as their marginal cost of producing electricity is greater than market prices. This uneconomic dispatch of coal crowds out generation from lower-cost resources like wind, solar, and natural gas combined cycle generation, and the cost is passed on to the utility’s ratepayers through fuel costs on their electric bills.
Small Modular Reactors – The technology and Australian context explained, Australian Academy of Technological Sciences & Engineering
The authors summarize the state of technical development and the Australian context for small modular nuclear reactors in 2024. Small modular reactors (SMRs) are a proposed nuclear power plant design with a smaller footprint than a conventional reactor. SMRs could potentially form part of Australia’s future low-carbon energy mix, utilizing existing transmission infrastructure and contributing to baseload power, or providing dispatchable power in a high-renewable grid. As an emerging technology, in 2024 the cost and operational performance of this technology have not yet been demonstrated.
Synergy Solutions for Climate and SDG Action: Bridging the Ambition Gap for the Future We Want, Buchner et al., United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Secretariat
It is no longer feasible to treat climate change and sustainable development separately, with over 80 percent of Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) targets directly linked to climate. But there is a way, to tackle these two critical agendas together so that we can multiply impacts and bridge investment gaps worth trillions of dollars. We must break down fragmentation and silos, and act on the climate emergency and sustainable development together, or we risk catastrophe on both fronts. Deep transformative changes are needed, and are possible, now. We know the issues that need to be addressed. We have solutions that are inclusive and equitable. Focusing on synergies between climate action and sustainable development is vital to overcoming the challenges, providing win-win solutions, and minimizing trade-offs. And there are many inspiring examples of how this can be done.
The Battery Mineral Loop. The path from extraction to circularity, Walter et al., RMI
The authors present a comprehensive strategy to address the rising demand for battery minerals. Battery minerals are not the new oil. Even as battery demand surges, the combined forces of efficiency, innovation, and circularity will drive peak demand for mined minerals within a decade — and may even avoid mineral extraction altogether by 2050. These advancements enable us to transition from linear extraction to a circular loop, with compounding benefits for our climate, security, equity, health, and wealth.
Agrivoltaics and Ecovoltaics, Fernandez-Bou et al., Union of Concerned Scientists
Agrivoltaics and ecovoltaics are multibenefit land repurposing strategies that offer economic and ecological benefits. They can reduce groundwater pumping near disadvantaged communities, contribute to an equitable clean energy transition, and create job opportunities.
The Missing GHG Emissions: How Satellite Data Can Quantify the Real Climate Risk of Oil & Gas Companies, Patricia Pina and Renato Coelho, Clarity AI
Less than 10% of companies report Scope 3 investment emissions data. While a growing number of companies disclose sustainability-related information, there are still challenges around data completeness, consistency, and transparency. For example, all publicly traded oil and gas companies listed in the MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) report their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Still, over 90% of these companies do not incorporate the Scope 3 emissions from their investments in their reports. Leveraging a collaboration with Climate TRACE, the authors analyze the largest 20 companies in the oil and gas industry, quantifying GHG emissions from all physical assets, including their minority investments. They found that the relative ranking of these companies in terms of carbon intensity is significantly affected by the inclusion or exclusion of the assets they own but do not operate. Additionally, the authors assessed the effect of these “missing emissions” on the carbon footprint of a theoretical portfolio investing in the largest 20 oil and gas companies — the carbon footprint increases by 24% when emissions from these assets are included.
How Does Climate Risk Affect Global Equity Valuations? A Novel Approach, Rebonato et al., EDHEC-Risk Climate Impact Institute
The authors examine the effect of climate change-induced transition costs and physical damages on global equity valuations by pricing equity as the sum of discounted claims on consumption across climate and economic scenarios consistent with different greenhouse gas emissions trajectories.
Mining the Sun. Transforming mine lands and brownfields into clean energy hubs, The Nature Conservancy
The authors provide information for anyone interested in advancing clean energy projects on mine lands, brownfields, and landfills—thereby minimizing impacts to undisturbed lands. It includes overviews of relevant state and federal policies, programs, and incentives; economic analyses; community engagement best practices; and maps showing viable brownfield and mine sites. The provided information can be used by energy planners, such as state energy offices and permitting agencies, developers and utilities, and community development organizations as a concise guide to address the opportunities and challenges to siting renewables on brownfields and mine lands.
Fewer New Miles. The US Transmission Grid in the 2020s, Shreve et al., Americans for a Clean Energy Grid and Grid Strategies
While the need for more transmission capacity is clear, utilities are not responding. Construction of new high-voltage transmission has slowed to a trickle over the past decade. Despite this decline in new construction, annual transmission spending has hit an all-time high — over $25 billion per year — with 90% of this spending driven by reliability upgrades and the replacement of aging equipment. However, a significant increase in federal funding and utility investment in new greenfield high-capacity projects is still needed to truly move the needle on transmission expansion and ensure a reliable and affordable transition to a cleaner grid. While the new transmission is being built, utilities can fully avail themselves of Advanced Transmission Technologies, such as reconductoring and Grid Enhancing Technologies to upgrade existing transmission lines.
Monitoring report: Emissions reduction. Assessing progress towards meeting Aotearoa New Zealand’s emissions budgets and the 2050 target, He Pou a Rangi Climate Change Commission
The authors present their assessment of the adequacy of the Government’s current emissions reduction plan and its implementation; how New Zealand is tracking against the ‘emissions budgets’ that serve as steppingstones to the long-term target; and progress towards the 2050 emissions target. The monitoring covers reductions in gross emissions, and removals of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere (mostly carbon dioxide absorbed by forests as trees grow), to report against the country’s net emissions target.
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How is New Research assembled?
Most articles appearing here are found via RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance.
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The objective of New Research isn’t to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers’ impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:
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