Skeptical Science New Research for Week #29 2023

Posted on 20 July 2023 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack

Open access notables

Dawning recognition of the gravity of climate change rapidly lead to questions about how the world ocean would respond to warming, naturally leading to “what happens at shorelines?” This evolution is fully covered in The evolving landscape of sea-level rise science from 1990 to 2021, Danial Khojasteh et  al., Communications Earth & Environment:

This analysis provides insights into the evolution of research agendas, the challenges and opportunities for future assessments (e.g. next IPCC reports), and growing focus on adaptation. For example, the relative importance of sub-themes evolves consistently with a relative decline in pure science analysis towards solution-focused topics associated with SLR risks such as high-end rises, declining ecosystem services, flood hazards, and coastal erosion/squeeze.

Focusing on the frequency of events leads to misperception of the heft and unusual nature of recently burgeoning heatwaves. So argue Emmanuele Russo and Daniela Domeisen in their Geophysical Research Letters paper, Increasing Intensity of Extreme Heatwaves: The Crucial Role of Metrics: 

Indices based on cumulative values represent a more appropriate choice than the ones relying on temporal averages, since they better allow for the comparison of events of different length. Additionally, using one of the considered cumulative metrics for heatwave intensity, we investigate the trends of very extreme events over the period 1950–2021. The results show that for all the considered regions, heatwaves that were rarely recorded during 1950–1985 have become up to 10 times more likely and up to three times more intense over 1986–2021.

Brief perusal of any given week’s “GHG sources & sinks…” section of our week research roundup reveals many potentially significant sources of methane likely or certainly to mobilized by increasing warmth on Earth’s surface. Most of these are beyond our immediate control once set on the move. It’s a different case with anthropogenic sources, in particular those associated with fossil fuel production. Sloppy habits will cost us dearly, suggest Claude-Michel Nzotungicimpaye, Alexander MacIsaac & Kirsten Zickfeld in their paper  Delaying methane mitigation increases the risk of breaching the 2 °C warming limit: 

According to our model simulations, the 2 °C temperature goal can be achieved through rapid and deep cuts in anthropogenic CH4 emissions along with stringent CO2 mitigation. Our results suggest that global warming relative to the pre-industrial period (1850–1900) could be limited to well below 2 °C throughout the 21st century if global-scale CH4 mitigation is initiated before 2030 while all other anthropogenic emissions evolve according to SSP1-2.6 (Fig. 3). However, if CH4 mitigation is delayed to 2040, our results suggest that the 2 °C warming target will be overshot for at least two decades in the 21st century (Fig. 3), with longer mitigation delays implying longer overshoot periods of the 2 °C threshold. 

The road to global warming is littered with emergent non-obvious effects. Qinya Fan et al. tease out yet another, in Marine Heatwaves Contribute More to Changing Air-Water Exchange of Semi-Volatile Organic Compounds Than Mean Sea Surface Temperature Rise via Earth’s Future. In a nutshell, SVOCs (semi-volatile organic compounds) of human and natural origin are liberated and mobilized as a general result of warming and particularly in connection with increasing marine heatwaves, leading to potential human health effects given the  carcinogenic teratogenicity of many of these compounds.  

117 articles in 61 journals by 580 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

Increasing shortwave penetration through the bottom of the oceanic mixed layer in a warmer climate, Tian & Zhang, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 10.1029/2022jc019587

Investigating the vertical extent and short-wave radiative effects of the ice phase in Arctic summertime low-level clouds, Järvinen et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-23-7611-2023

Prescribing stratospheric chemistry overestimates southern hemisphere climate change during austral spring in response to quadrupled CO2, Li & Newman, Climate Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-022-06588-4

Present-day North Atlantic salinity constrains future warming of the Northern Hemisphere, Park et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-023-01728-y

Robust Relationship Between Midlatitudes CAPE and Moist Static Energy Surplus in Present and Future Simulations, Wang & Moyer, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl104163

Soil moisture−atmosphere feedbacks have triggered the shifts from drought to pluvial conditions since 1980, Qing et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-00922-2

Observations of climate change, effects

An assessment of whether long-term global changes in waves and storm surges have impacted global coastlines, Ghanavati et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-023-38729-y

Marine Heatwaves Contribute More to Changing Air-Water Exchange of Semi-Volatile Organic Compounds Than Mean Sea Surface Temperature Rise, Fan et al., Earth’s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2022ef003242

Strengthening atmospheric circulation and trade winds slowed tropical Pacific surface warming, Latif et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-00912-4

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

A global database of historic glacier lake outburst floods, Lützow et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access pdf 10.5194/essd-15-2983-2023

Calibration of the SNPP and NOAA 20 VIIRS sensors for continuity of the MODIS climate data records, Lyapustin et al., Remote Sensing of Environment Open Access 10.1016/j.rse.2023.113717

Climate change impact on hurricane storm surge hazards in New York/New Jersey Coastlines using machine-learning, Ayyad et al., npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41612-023-00420-4

High-resolution CCAM simulations over New Zealand and the South Pacific for the detection and attribution of weather extremes, Gibson et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2023jd038530

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

Climate Response to Atlantic Meridional Energy Transport Variations, Jiang et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0608.1

Climatological features of future MCSs over the Canadian Prairies using convection-permitting climate models, Hwang et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106922

Delaying methane mitigation increases the risk of breaching the 2 °C warming limit, Nzotungicimpaye et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-00898-z

Fast and Slow Responses of the Tropical Pacific to Radiative Forcing in Northern High Latitudes, Tseng et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0622.1

Projected changes in extreme climate events over Africa under 1.5 , 2.0 and 3.0 global warming levels based on CMIP6 projections, Ayugi et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106872

Projected Strengthening Impact of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation on the Southern Hemisphere by CMIP5/6 Models, Rao et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0801.1

Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

New Potential to Reduce Uncertainty in Regional Climate Projections by Combining Physical and Socio-Economic Constraints, , Journal of Development and Social Sciences Open Access pdf 10.47205/jdss.2021(2-iv)74

The Importance of Hyperspectral Soil Albedo Information for Improving Earth System Model Projections, Braghiere et al., AGU Advances Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023av000910

Tropical Tropospheric Warming Pattern Explained by Shifts in Convective Heating in the Matsuno-Gill Model, Keil et al., Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 10.1002/qj.4526

Cryosphere & climate change

Brief communication: Is vertical shear in an ice shelf (still) negligible?, Miele et al., The Cryosphere Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-17-2701-2023

CRYO, Koning et al., Methods in Cell Biology Open Access pdf 10.1016/b978-0-12-801075-4.00010-0

Brief communication: Is vertical shear in an ice shelf (still) negligible?, Miele et al., The Cryosphere Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-17-2701-2023

Sea level & climate change

The evolving landscape of sea-level rise science from 1990 to 2021, Khojasteh et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-00920-4

Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry

Elevated atmospheric CO2 drove an increase in tropical cyclone intensity during the early Toarcian hyperthermal, Yan et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2301018120

Response of Water Isotopes in Precipitation to a Collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet in High-Resolution Simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model, Dütsch et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0647.1

Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

Arctic and red fox population responses to climate and cryosphere changes at the Arctic’s edge, Verstege et al., Oecologia Open Access 10.1007/s00442-023-05418-6

Climate change overshadows human activities in enhancing vegetation activity in Inner Mongolia, Zhao et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-023-04553-7

Coral assemblages at higher latitudes favor short-term potential over long-term performance, Cant et al., Ecology Open Access pdf 10.1002/ecy.4138

Declining resistance of vegetation productivity to droughts across global biomes, Liu et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109602

Demographic responses of hybridizing cinquefoils to changing climate in the Colorado Rocky Mountains, Carscadden et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.10097

Discovering ecophysiological causes of different spring phenology responses of trees to climatic warming, Zhang et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109593

Human-induced salinity changes impact marine organisms and ecosystems, Röthig et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.16859

Recent evolution of flowering time across multiple European plant species correlates with changes in aridity, Rauschkolb et al., Oecologia Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00442-023-05414-w

Regional variation in climate change alters the range-wide distribution of colour polymorphism in a wild bird, Koskenpato et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.10311

Tropical estuarine ecosystem change under the interacting influences of future climate and ecosystem restoration, Smith et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.16868

Two tropical seagrass species show differing indicators of resistance to a marine heatwave, Bass & Falkenberg, Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.10304

Warming stabilizes alpine ecosystem facing extreme rainfall events by changing plant species composition, Yan et al., Journal of Ecology 10.1111/1365-2745.14162

Water use efficiency and climate legacies dominate beech growth at its rear edge, Olano et al., Journal of Ecology Open Access pdf 10.1111/1365-2745.14164

GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

Advances in Earth observation and machine learning for quantifying blue carbon, Pham et al., Earth Open Access 10.1016/j.earscirev.2023.104501

Atmospheric methane: Comparison between methane’s record in 2006-2022 and during glacial terminations, Nisbet et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles Open Access 10.1029/2023gb007875

Declining resistance of vegetation productivity to droughts across global biomes, Liu et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109602

Increasingly negative tropical water–interannual CO2 growth rate coupling, Liu et al., Nature Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41586-023-06056-x

Inter-Annual Variability in Atmospheric Transport Complicates Estimation of US Methane Emissions Trends, Feng et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2022gl100366

Resolving the influence of lignin on soil organic matter decomposition with mechanistic models and continental-scale data, Yi et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.16875

Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001

The role of vegetation carbon sequestration in offsetting energy carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Basin, China, Yang & Pan, Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-03572-8

CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

Co-firing plants with retrofitted carbon capture and storage for power-sector emissions mitigation, Fan et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-023-01736-y

Grab and gone: expert perspectives on innovation to diffusion of direct air carbon capture and storage technology, Bates et al., Carbon Management Open Access pdf 10.1080/17583004.2023.2235577

Decarbonization

Electric vehicle controllers for sustainable energy management: recommendations and challenges, Gunjal et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-03561-x

Methanol generation from bio-syngas: experimental analysis and modeling studies, Adil et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-03541-1

Recent Progress in Transient Energy Storage using Biodegradable Materials, Yamada, Advanced Energy and Sustainability Research Open Access pdf 10.1002/aesr.202300083

Solution-Processable Zinc Oxide for Printed Photovoltaics: Progress, Challenges, and Prospect, Han et al., Advanced Energy and Sustainability Research Open Access pdf 10.1002/aesr.202200179

Geoengineering climate

Does prognostic seeding along flight tracks produce the desired effects of cirrus cloud thinning?, Tully et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-23-7673-2023

The Feasibility and Governance of Cyclone Interventions, Miller et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2023.100535

Climate change communications & cognition

A letter to future generations: Examining the effectiveness of an intergenerational framing intervention, Syropoulos et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2023.102074

The role of smartphone-based weather information acquisition on climate change perception accuracy: Cross-country evidence from Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia and Uzbekistan, Emileva et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2023.100537

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Carbon footprint and sustainability assessment of wood utilisation in Hungary, Polgár, Environment, Development and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10668-023-03571-9

Changes in aridity and its impact on agricultural lands in East Asia for 1.5 and 2.0?°C temperature rise scenarios, Ziarh et al., Atmospheric Research Open Access 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106920

Climate Change Impacts on Subsistence Paddy Farming on the Indian East Coast: A Geospatial and Community Perception Assessment, Kundu et al., Weather, Climate, and Society 10.1175/wcas-d-21-0175.1

Crop production in northwestern Ethiopian highlands under changing climate, Misganaw et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8175

Detecting the long-term spatiotemporal crop phenology changes in a highly fragmented agricultural landscape, Sisheber et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109601

From niche-innovation to mainstream markets: Drivers and challenges of industry adoption of agrivoltaics in the U.S., Pascaris et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113694

Gender dimensions in the adoption of climate-smart agriculture technologies in response to climate change extremes in Benin, Obossou et al., Regional Environmental Change 10.1007/s10113-023-02085-4

Impacts of biocapacity, climate change, food vulnerability, readiness and adaptive capacity on cereal crops yield: evidence from Africa, Onyeneke et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-03615-0

Modelling CO2 budget of mussel farms across the Mediterranean Sea, Bertolini et al., Ambio 10.1007/s13280-023-01900-w

The understory microclimate in agroforestry now and in the future – a case study of Arabica coffee in its native range, Zignol et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109586

Viticulture in Oltenia region (Romania) in the new climatic context, Vl?du? et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology Open Access 10.1007/s00704-023-04544-8

Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

Climate-smart irrigation and responsible innovation in South Asia: A systematic mapping, Prutzer et al., Ambio 10.1007/s13280-023-01895-4

Comparison of multi-model ensembles of global and regional climate model projections for daily characteristics of precipitation over four major river basins in southern Africa. Part II: Future changes under 1.5?°C, 2.0?°C and 3.0?°C warming levels, Samuel et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106921

Coupled hydrological and hydrodynamic modelling application for climate change impact assessment in the Nemunas river watershed–Curonian Lagoon–southeastern Baltic Sea continuum, Idzelyt? et al., Ocean Science Open Access pdf 10.5194/os-19-1047-2023

Future of land surface water availability over the Mediterranean basin and North Africa: Analysis and synthesis from the CMIP6 exercise, Arjdal et al., Atmospheric Science Letters Open Access pdf 10.1002/asl.1180

MOPREDAS&century database and precipitation trends in mainland Spain, 1916–2020, Gonzalez?Hidalgo et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.8060

Tracking moisture sources of precipitation over China, Zhang & Li, Journal of Meteorological Research Open Access 10.1007/s13351-014-3084-9

Trends, Shifting, or Oscillations? Stochastic Modeling of Nonstationary Time Series for Future Water-Related Risk Management, , Gas Turbine Diagnostics Open Access 10.1201/b13979-9

Climate change economics

Assessing Macro-economic Effects of Climate Impacts on Energy Demand in EU Sub-national Regions, Standardi et al., Environmental and Resource Economics Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10640-023-00792-4

Digital financial development and indirect household carbon emissions: empirical evidence from China, Feng et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-03603-4

The threshold effect of energy intensity on the emission-growth nexus in Malaysia, Munir et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-03600-7

Climate change mitigation public policy research

A fit for purpose approach for reporting and review under UNFCCC’s Enhanced Transparency Framework, Pulles & Hanle, Carbon Management Open Access pdf 10.1080/17583004.2023.2235568

All roads lead to Rome? Carbon emissions, pollutant emissions and local officials’ political promotion in China, Jiang & Tang, Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113700

Brazilian light vehicle fleet decarbonization scenarios for 2050, Glyniadakis & Balestieri, Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113682

Climate risk and renewable energy technological innovation: An institutional environment perspective, Chen et al., Risk Analysis 10.1111/risa.14194

Dynamics of social acceptance of renewable energy: An introduction to the concept, Ellis et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113706

Effect of carbon information disclosure with consistent evaluation standards: An empirical study about carbon efficiency label in Huzhou China, Li et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113717

Emissions savings from equitable energy demand reduction, Büchs et al., Nature Energy Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41560-023-01283-y

Energy security dilemma and energy transition policy in the context of climate change: A perspective from China, Li et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113624

Examining willingness to pay for energy futures in a fossil and renewable energy-rich locale, Walter et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113661

Hidden delays of climate mitigation benefits in the race for electric vehicle deployment, Ren et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-38182-5

How to reinforce the effectiveness of the EU emissions trading system in stimulating low-carbon technological change? Taking stock and future directions, Mandaroux et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113697

Sustainable lifestyle: Urban household carbon footprint accounting and policy implications for lifestyle-based decarbonization, Huang et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113696

The carbon footprint of Chinese multinationals’ foreign affiliates, Wu, Carbon Management Open Access pdf 10.1080/17583004.2023.2236068

Understanding domestic consumer attitude and behaviour towards energy: A study on the Island of Ireland, Brown et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113693

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Do climate change expectations drive migration? Evidence from migration flows towards OECD countries, Minehan & Wesselbaum, Global and Planetary Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2023.104188

Facing old and new risks in arid environments: The case of pastoral communities in Northern Kenya, Schilling & Werland, PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000251

Heat and drought reduce subnational population growth in the global tropics, Gray & Call, Population and Environment 10.1007/s11111-023-00420-9

Indigenous knowledge in climate change adaptation: Choice of indigenous adaptation responses to coastal erosion in Ghanaian communities, Arkhurst et al., Environmental Science & Policy 10.1016/j.envsci.2023.06.021

Indigenous perspectives on climate mobility justice and displacement-mobility-immobility continuum, Yumagulova et al., Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2023.2227158

Migration as adaptation to freshwater and inland hydroclimatic changes? A meta-review of existing evidence, Caretta et al., Climatic Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-023-03573-6

Neighborhood effects in climate change adaptation behavior: empirical evidence from Germany, Osberghaus & Hünewaldt, Regional Environmental Change 10.1007/s10113-023-02083-6

Slower population growth in hot and dry conditions, Grecequet, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-00917-z

SuDS as a climate change adaptation strategy: Scenario-based analysis for an urban catchment in northern Italy, D’Ambrosio et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2023.101596

Towards scenario representation of adaptive capacity for global climate change assessments, Andrijevic et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-023-01725-1

Climate change impacts on human health

A risk–risk trade-off assessment of climate-induced mortality risk changes, Mussio et al., Risk Analysis Open Access pdf 10.1111/risa.14185

Climate change and health equity: Expanding our reach using technology, Saltzman et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000242

Contrasting Intraurban Signatures of Humid and Dry Heatwaves over Southern California, Shreevastava et al., Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1175/jamc-d-22-0149.1

Exploring the spatial spillover effects of climate change on the supply of medical and health services: Evidence from China, Zhang et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2023.101598

The effects of summer ambient temperature on total mortality in Serbia, Arsenovi? et al., International Journal of Biometeorology 10.1007/s00484-023-02520-5

Climate change & geopolitics

Supply chain disruptions would increase agricultural greenhouse gas emissions, Foong et al., Regional Environmental Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10113-023-02095-2

Climate change impacts on human culture

Outdoor Sport in Extreme Heat: Capturing the Personal Experiences of Elite Athletes, Sambrook et al., Weather, Climate, and Society 10.1175/wcas-d-22-0107.1

Other

Changes in tropospheric ozone over India: Variability, long-term trends and climate forcing, Rathore et al., Atmospheric Environment 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2023.119959

Climate concerns and the future of nonfungible tokens: Leveraging environmental benefits of the Ethereum Merge, Lal & You, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2303109120

Complexity of increasing knowledge flows: the 2022 Southwest Airlines Scheduling Crisis, Helmrich et al., Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1088/2634-4505/ace5ce

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

A marine protected area network does not confer community structure resilience to a marine heatwave across coastal ecosystems, Smith et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.16862

Increasing Intensity of Extreme Heatwaves: The Crucial Role of Metrics, Russo & Domeisen Domeisen, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl103540

Partnering for preprints in climate research, Archer & Males, PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000250

Understanding spring wildfires in Canada’s northern forests, Burton, Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.16879

Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Geopolitics of the Energy Transition: Critical Materials, International Renewable Energy Agency

The authors provide comprehensive insights into the significance of critical materials, examining their associated geopolitical implications and offering recommendations for a sustainable and efficient global energy transition. The authors highlight that current patterns of production and processing will remain largely unchanged in the coming years, stressing the importance of international cooperation and prudent policy choices to ensure that the energy transition advances at the necessary speed worldwide. They urge the development of transparent markets with coherent standards and norms, grounded in human rights, environmental stewardship, and community engagement. They also examine possibilities for developing countries to advance their industrialization strategies and capture greater economic value from their mineral wealth.

Californians and the Environment, Baldassare et al., Public Policy Institute of California

California had storms and snowpacks of historic proportions this winter, followed by large water runoffs in the spring, providing a welcome respite from a prolonged drought. But Californians are facing “weather whiplash” and heat waves as the global climate changes. Meanwhile, the economy is sending mixed signals, and state government surpluses have given way to shortfalls. These situations raise questions about the state’s ability to meet ambitious climate goals—even given federal investments in climate and clean energy programs through the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022. Amid changing economic and environmental conditions, what do Californians think about climate change and climate policies? Key findings of a statewide survey include solid majorities see the effects of climate change and say it is their top concern or one of several important concerns, Forty-five percent have been personally affected by extreme weather events in the past two years, and half have seriously considered buying an electric vehicle and 8 percent already have one.

NATO Climate Change and Security Impact Assessment, North Atlantic Treaty Organization

The authors discuss the effects of various climatic hazards on NATO’s strategic environment. They demonstrate how extreme weather conditions create operational stress and shorten the life cycles of military equipment, generating additional maintenance and replacement costs. The authors focus on four geographical regions (Europe, North America, the Middle East and North Africa/the Sahel, and the High North), and four of NATO’s operational domains. They use three specific case studies to underpin their recommendations on adapting to a climate-changed future operating environment: the impact of extreme heat on NATO Mission Iraq; the effects of rising sea levels and storms on Norfolk Naval Station in the US; and those of flooding on the Naval Air Station in Sigonella, Italy.

Compendium of Best Practice, North Atlantic Treaty Organization

The authors provide concrete examples of Allied efforts to adapt to climate change through the introduction of relevant policies and procedures into their armed forces while reducing their environmental footprint. The introduction of energy-efficient and environmentally sustainable technological solutions combines capability requirements on innovation with military effectiveness while ensuring interoperability and enhancing mission endurance. This facilitates NATO’s exploitation of the ongoing transition to low-carbon energy sources and helps inform the development of an implementation plan for NATO’s Energy Transition by Design.

The NATO Greenhouse Gases Emission Mapping and Analytical Methodology, North Atlantic Treaty Organization

The authors provide guidelines and tools to calculate emissions from the civilian and military facilities (installations and assets) of the NATO Enterprise that will help NATO reach its emission reduction targets.

Climate Campaign Plan, Department of the Air Force

The Climate Campaign Plan is the implementation portion of the U.S. Air Force’s Climate Action Plan and breaks down the strategy through specific and measurable objectives and key results. This plan details the actions, offices of primary responsibility, external partners, and timelines to achieve the key results.

Demography and climate change. EU in the global context, Deuster et al., Joint Research Centre (European Commission)

Demography is intimately related to both climate change adaptation and mitigation. The authors focus on demography and climate mitigation through analyses of trajectories for emissions and population at global and European Union (EU) levels. At the global level, the authors highlight the role of population momentum. While population growth implies almost by definition higher emissions, at least in the short term, the intrinsic inertia in demographic processes implies that solutions to reduce emissions need to come from reducing inequalities, the greening of the economy, and a change in consumption rather than from interventions on fertility. At the EU level, the authors find that although in absolute terms older people emit less, they have higher per capita emissions, a greater share of their emissions is concentrated in carbon-intensive consumption items and they are less likely to change their attitudes or behavior towards more environmentally friendly patterns. Considering the trends for the aging of the EU population, these intergenerational differences in consumption and attitudes add a new policy challenge to the already pressing need to reduce the differences in responsibilities for emissions linked to income.

Assessing the Evidence: Migration, Environment and Climate Change in Ireland, Silchenko et al., International Organization for Migration and the University of Galway, Ryan Institute

The authors provide information on the changing migration patterns in Ireland, in the context of a warming planet and increasing environmental degradation. They seek to inform and encourage the Irish Government, policymakers, and relevant stakeholders to consider key challenges and opportunities arising from the migration, environment, and climate change (MECC) nexus. They analyze existing research on both climate change and migration in Ireland, drawing on evidence from the wider MECC literature, while highlighting research and policy gaps. Supported by the findings, the authors recommend strengthening responses that recognize rising uncertainties from climate change and migration in Ireland.

South Asia’s Dual Dilemma: Climate Impacts Heighten Conflict Vulnerability, Laraib Farhat, Institute for Security and Development Policy

The already declined state of South Asia’s security landscape has been further compromised under the looming climate emergency. With rising temperatures, melting glaciers, and depleting natural resources compounded by South Asia’s internal instability and external intimidations, the region is subject to a mounting dual dilemma; climate-induced migration coincided with conflict escalation and development-induced migration along with the rising energy crises that could become a potential hotspot for conflict in the region.

Climate Security in South Asia, National Academies Climate Security Roundtable, National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine

Participants in a workshop explored climate security in South Asia through presentations and discussions. Over two days, workshop participants considered some of the underlying climate, development, and geopolitical dynamics at play in the South Asia region; explored a set of historical case studies and future scenarios for climate change and security in South Asia; and they considered the available tools for analysis and forecasting climate-related risks.

National Hydrogen Strategy, Department of the Environment, Climate and Communications, Government of Ireland

The strategy sets out the strategic vision of the role that hydrogen will play in Ireland’s energy system, looking to its long-term role as a key component of a zero-carbon economy, and the short-term actions that need to be delivered over the coming years to enable the development of the hydrogen sector in Ireland.

How Climate Change Challenges the U.S. Nuclear Deterrent, Jamie Kwong, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Climate change could have mission-altering impacts on the U.S. nuclear deterrent. The author examines the range of climate change challenges and threats that could detrimentally affect each leg of the U.S. nuclear triad in different and increasingly serious ways. In doing so, the author helps to advance broader, ongoing efforts to account for climate change in U.S. national security policies. She also aims to inform and help initiate a larger conversation about the vulnerabilities of all nuclear weapons programs to climate change. Gaining greater clarity about these vulnerabilities now is essential to mitigating the worst effects of climate change on nuclear weapons in the future.

Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions

We know it’s frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as “On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light”  but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article’s relevance and importance. 

• Unpaywall offers a browser extension for Chrome and Firefox that automatically indicates when an article is freely accessible and provides immediate access without further trouble. Unpaywall is also unscammy, works well, is itself offered free to use. The organizers (a legitimate nonprofit) report about a 50% success rate

• The weekly New Research catch is checked against the Unpaywall database with accessible items being flagged. Especially for just-published articles this mechansim may fail. If you’re interested in an article title and it is not listed here as “open access,” be sure to check the link anyway. 

How is New Research assembled?

Most articles appearing here are found via  RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance. 

Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database. 

The objective of New Research isn’t to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers’ impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:

• Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a “yes” to this automatically. 
• Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week’s 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.

A few journals offer public access to “preprint” versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. For some key journals this all the mention we’ll see in RSS feeds, so we include such items in New Research. These are flagged as “preprint.”

The section “Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives” includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of “perspectives,” observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.

Suggestions

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Journals covered

A list of journals we cover may be found here. We welcome pointers to omissions, new journals etc.

Previous edition

The previous edition of Skeptical Science New Research may be found here.