Skeptical Science New Research for Week #14 2024
30 min read
Skeptical Science New Research for Week #14 2024
Posted on 4 April 2024 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open access notables
We need a solid scientific basis for nature-based climate solutions in the United States, Novick et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (perspective):
Ambitious NbCS [nature-based climate solutions] programs could deliver benefits for biodiversity, communities, and the climate. Unfortunately, a lack of evidence about specific benefits from specific strategies prevents researchers and policymakers from confidently prescribing when and where they should be used. Certainly, many NbCS are known to boost biodiversity, soil health, and air and water quality. But for these strategies to meaningfully support climate mitigation at a scale that justifies the private and public investments, they must lead to significant, durable, and measurable net climate cooling that’s in addition to what would have occurred anyway. They must also do so without simply displacing emissions to other locations. Right now, we simply do not know when and where most NbCS meet these criteria.
Public opinion about solar radiation management: A cross-cultural study in 20 countries around the world, Contzen et al., Climatic Change:
Some argue that complementing climate change mitigation measures with solar radiation management (SRM) might prove a last resort to limit global warming to 1.5 °C. To make a socially responsible decision on whether to use SRM, it is important to consider also public opinion, across the globe and particularly in the Global South, which would face the greatest risks from both global warming and SRM. However, most research on public opinion about SRM stems from the Global North. We report findings from the first large-scale, cross-cultural study on the public opinion about SRM among the general public (N = 2,248) and students (N = 4,583) in 20 countries covering all inhabited continents, including five countries from the Global South and five ‘non-WEIRD’ (i.e. not Western, Educated, Industrialised, Rich, and Democratic) countries from the Global North. As public awareness of SRM is usually low, we provided participants with information on SRM, including key arguments in favour of and against SRM that appear in the scientific debate. On average, acceptability of SRM was significantly higher in the Global South than in the ‘non-WEIRD’ Global North, while acceptability in the ‘WEIRD’ Global North was in between.
Climate change-associated declines in water clarity impair feeding by common loons, Piper et al., Ecology:
Here we used Landsat imagery to calculate water clarity for 127 lakes in northern Wisconsin from 1995 to 2021 and thus investigate the effect of clarity on the body condition of an aquatic visual predator, the common loon (Gavia immer). In addition, we examined rainfall and temperature as potential predictors of water clarity. Body mass tracked July water clarity strongly in loon chicks, which grow chiefly in that month, but weakly in adult males and females. Long-term mean water clarity was negatively related to chick mass but positively related to adult male mass, suggesting that loons foraging in generally clear lakes enjoy good foraging conditions in the long run but might be sensitive to perturbations in clarity during chick-rearing. Finally, chick mass was positively related to the density of docks, perhaps because angling removes large fishes and thus boosts the abundance of the small fishes on which chicks depend. Water clarity itself declined strongly from 1995 to 2021, was negatively related to July rainfall, and was positively related to July air temperature. Our findings identified both long-term and short-term water clarity as strong predictors of loon foraging efficiency, and suggest that climate change, through water clarity, impacts freshwater ecosystems profoundly. Moreover, our results identified the recent decrease in water clarity as a likely cause of population decline in common loons.
Observational Quantification of Tropical High Cloud Changes and Feedbacks, Raghuraman et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres:
Tropical high clouds can have both cooling and heating effects: by reflecting sunlight, they cool the planet and by preventing terrestrial radiation from escaping to space, they also heat the planet. Despite their influence on how much heat gets stored in the Earth system, there is a surprisingly poor understanding of how these clouds will respond to global warming. This uncertainty is largely due to the paucity of observational data. Now, however, instruments aboard satellites orbiting Earth have provided unprecedented data on the changes in the vertical structure of clouds as well as their heat impacts. Our work shows that the dominant signal in the satellite cloud record is the rise of high clouds in response to warming, not any net contraction of coverage. The high clouds are also found to be warming and thinning. Overall, these high cloud changes induce less reflection of sunlight and allow more terrestrial radiation to escape to space. However, these radiative effects cancel and altogether cause no significant heating impact in the tropics.
From this week’s government/NGO section:
Rebutting 33 False Claims About Solar, Wind, and Electric Vehicles, Jacob Elkin et al., Sabin Center for Climate Change Law:
Achieving the United States’ ambitious emissions reduction goals depends in large part on the rapid adoption of wind and solar energy and the electrification of consumer vehicles. However, misinformation and coordinated disinformation about renewable energy is widespread and threatens to undermine public support for the transition. In a new report, the Sabin Center identifies and examines 33 of the most pervasive false claims about solar energy, wind energy, and electric vehicles, with the aim of promoting a more informed discussion.
Drilling Deeper, Scott Zimmerman, Global Energy Monitor:
The oil and gas industry remains steadfast in its plans to continue developing new fields, even though the consensus is still affirmed that no new oil and gas projects are compatible with limiting warming to 1.5°C. At least 20.3 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe) of new oil and gas discoveries have been announced since the 2021 publication of the International Energy Agency (IEA) Net Zero roadmap said no new developments were needed in its 1.5-degree scenario. At least 20 fields reached a final investment decision (FID) in 2023, sanctioning the extraction of 8 billion boe. By the end of the decade, companies are aiming to sanction nearly four times that amount (31.2 billion boe) across 64 additional fields.
143 articles in 69 journals by 882 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
Atmospheric dryness removes barriers to the development of large forest fires, Cawson et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.109990
Dimensionality reduction of chaos by feedbacks and periodic forcing is a source of natural climate change, Salmon, Climate Dynamics 10.1007/s00382-024-07191-5
Nonequilibrium Fluctuations of Global Warming, Yin et al., Journal of Climate Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0273.1
Weak anvil cloud area feedback suggested by physical and observational constraints, McKim et al., Nature Geoscience Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41561-024-01414-4
Observations of climate change, effects
Anthropogenic forcing has increased the risk of longer-traveling and slower-moving large contiguous heatwaves, Luo et al., Science Advances Open Access pdf 10.1126/sciadv.adl1598
Attribution of Terrestrial Near-Surface Wind Speed Changes Across China at a Centennial Scale, Zha et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2024gl108241
Climatological standard normals of IRAN, for the period 1981–2010 and 1991–2020: precipitation and temperature, Javanshiri & Rahmdel, Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics 10.1007/s00703-024-01013-3
Detection and Attribution of Human-Perceived Warming Over China, Zhang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl106283
Diverse marine heatwave intensity trends in the marginal seas of China, Li et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-024-04937-3
Heat waves in Poland: The relations to atmospheric circulation and Arctic warming, J?druszkiewicz et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.8448
Increased atmospheric water stress on gross primary productivity during flash droughts over China from 1961 to 2022, Xi et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100667
Observational Quantification of Tropical High Cloud Changes and Feedbacks, Raghuraman et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jd039364
Secular changes in the tropical stratospheric water vapour entry induced by the Indo-Pacific warm pool warming, Jiang et al., Atmospheric Research Open Access 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107381
Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects
Near-Surface Air Temperature Records over the Past 30 Years in the Interior of Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica, Kurita et al., Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 10.1175/jtech-d-23-0092.1
Satellite-based time-series of sea-surface temperature since 1980 for climate applications, Embury et al., Scientific Data Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41597-024-03147-w
Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects
Arctic sea ice–air interactions weaken El Niño–Southern Oscillation, Deng & Dai, Science Advances Open Access pdf 10.1126/sciadv.adk3990
Assessment of the impacts of climate change on the construction of homogeneous climatic regions and ensemble climate projections using CMIP6 data over Pakistan, Abbas et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107359
Decreased Indian Ocean Dipole variability under prolonged greenhouse warming, Kim et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-47276-7
Employing gridded-based dataset for heatwave assessment and future projection in Peninsular Malaysia, Sa’adi et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-024-04946-2
Future Antarctic Climate: Storylines of Midlatitude Jet Strengthening and Shift Emergent from CMIP6, Williams et al., Journal of Climate Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0122.1
Future changes in the influence of the NAO on Mediterranean winter precipitation extremes in the EC-Earth3 large Ensemble: The prominent role of internal variability, Rivosecchi et al., Atmospheric Research Open Access 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107391
Future precipitation changes in California: Comparison of CMIP5 and CMIP6 intermodel spread and its drivers, Petrova et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8449
Increasing coastal exposure to extreme wave events in the Alaskan Arctic as the open water season expands, Henke et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01323-9
Inter-Comparison of Precipitation Simulation and Future Projections Over China From an Ensemble of Multi-GCM Driven RCM Simulations, Tong et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2023jd040166
More than three-fold increase in compound soil and air dryness across Europe by the end of 21st century, Shekhar et al., Open Access pdf 10.21203/rs.3.rs-3143908/v2
Projected changes in Köppen?Trewartha climate zones under 1.5–4 °C global warming targets over mid-high latitudes of Northern Asia using an ensemble of RegCM4 simulations, Wu et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2024.03.008
Projections of tropical cyclones over the north Indian Ocean using different tracking schemes under CMIP5 models, Wahiduzzaman, Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100664
The Precipitation Response to Warming and CO2 Increase: A Comparison of a Global Storm Resolving Model and CMIP6 Models, Guendelman et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2023gl107008
Cryosphere & climate change
A framework to assess permafrost thaw threat for land transportation infrastructure in northern Canada, Fatolahzadeh Gheysari & Maghoul, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01317-7
Changes in global land surface frozen ground and freeze?thaw processes during 1950−2020 based on ERA5-Land data, YANG et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2024.03.007
Degradation of warm permafrost and talik formation on the Qinghai?Tibet Plateau in 2006?2021, Qi-Hang et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2024.03.009
Recent autumn sea ice loss in the eastern Arctic enhanced by summer Asian-Pacific Oscillation, Zhou et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-47051-8
Sea-ice variations and trends during the Common Era in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic Ocean, Dauner et al., The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-18-1399-2024
Sea level & climate change
A National-Scale Coastal Flood Hazard Assessment for the Atoll Nation of Tuvalu, Wandres et al., Earth’s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef003924
Modeling future cliff-front waves during sea level rise and implications for coastal cliff retreat rates, Matsumoto et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-024-57923-0
Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry
A Greenland-wide empirical reconstruction of paleo ice sheet retreat informed by ice extent markers: PaleoGrIS version 1.0, Leger et al., Climate of the Past Open Access 10.5194/cp-20-701-2024
Assessing transient changes in the ocean carbon cycle during the last deglaciation through carbon isotope modeling, Kobayashi et al., Climate of the Past Open Access 10.5194/cp-20-769-2024
Early 20th century Southern Hemisphere cooling, Brönnimann et al., Climate of the Past Open Access 10.5194/cp-20-757-2024
Evaluating the climatic state of Indian Summer Monsoon during the mid-Pliocene period using CMIP6 model simulations, Dahiya et al., Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2024.101455
Lake Ice From Historical Records to Contemporary Science, Sharma et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jg007670
Biology & climate change, related geochemistry
A climate analog approach to evaluate seed transfer and vegetation transitions, Richardson et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access pdf 10.3389/ffgc.2024.1325264
Are Northern Hemisphere boreal forest fires more sensitive to future aerosol mitigation than to greenhouse gas–driven warming?, Allen et al., Science Advances Open Access pdf 10.1126/sciadv.adl4007
Changing species dominance patterns of Boreal-Arctic heathlands: evidence of biotic homogenization, Bråthen et al., Ecography Open Access pdf 10.1111/ecog.07116
Climate change and ecological sustainability in Zimbabwe: Interrogating the role of Higher Education Institutions in disaster management, Macheka, Climate Resilience and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1002/cli2.68
Climate change is poised to alter mountain stream ecosystem processes via organismal phenological shifts, Leathers et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1073/pnas.2310513121
Climate change-associated declines in water clarity impair feeding by common loons, Piper et al., Ecology Open Access pdf 10.1002/ecy.4291
Climate warming shifts riverine macroinvertebrate communities to be more sensitive to chemical pollutants, Sinclair et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.17254
Evaluating the expansion of African species into Europe driven by climate change, López?Ramírez et al., Diversity and Distributions Open Access pdf 10.1111/ddi.13840
How useful are genomic data for predicting maladaptation to future climate?, Lind et al., Open Access pdf 10.1101/2023.02.10.528022
Hybridization mediated range expansion and climate change resilience in two keystone tree species of boreal forests, Karunarathne et al., Open Access pdf 10.1101/2023.01.31.526517
Narrowed gene functions and enhanced transposon activity are associated with high tolerance to ocean acidification in a juvenile subarctic crustacean, Spencer et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000319
Precipitation change, functional traits and stand structure jointly control the spatiotemporal variability of radial growth in alpine treeline ecotones across northern China, Wang et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.109992
Response of two temperate scleractinian corals to projected ocean warming and marine heatwaves, Carbonne et al., Royal Society Open Science Open Access pdf 10.1098/rsos.231683
Rewiring the Carbon Cycle: A Theoretical Framework for Animal-Driven Ecosystem Carbon Sequestration, Rizzuto et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences Open Access 10.1029/2024jg008026
Simulating past and future fire impacts on Mediterranean ecosystems, Schwörer et al., Journal of Ecology Open Access pdf 10.1111/1365-2745.14293
Understanding the response of the Western Mediterranean cephalopods to environment and fishing in a context of alleged winners of change, Veloy et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106478
GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry
Biological export production controls upper ocean calcium carbonate dissolution and CO2 buffer capacity, Kwon et al., Science Advances Open Access pdf 10.1126/sciadv.adl0779
Burial of Organic Carbon in Swedish Fjord Sediments: Highlighting the Importance of Sediment Accumulation Rate in Relation to Fjord Redox Conditions, Watts et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 10.1029/2023jg007978
California dominates U.S. emissions of the pesticide and potent greenhouse gas sulfuryl fluoride, Gaeta et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01294-x
Canopy Heterogeneity and Environmental Variability Drive Annual Budgets of Net Ecosystem Carbon Exchange in a Tidal Marsh, Hawman et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 10.1029/2023jg007866
Carbon Dynamics of a Coastal Wetland Transitioning to Mangrove Forest, Yannick et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 10.1029/2023jg007991
Diurnal versus spatial variability of greenhouse gas emissions from an anthropogenically modified lowland river in Germany, Koschorreck et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-21-1613-2024
Elevated CO2 levels promote both carbon and nitrogen cycling in global forests, Cui et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-024-01973-9
First validation of high-resolution satellite-derived methane emissions from an active gas leak in the UK, Dowd et al., Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Open Access 10.5194/amt-17-1599-2024
First validation of high-resolution satellite-derived methane emissions from an active gas leak in the UK, Dowd et al., Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Open Access 10.5194/amt-17-1599-2024
Intrinsic and extrinsic drivers of organic matter processing along phosphorus and salinity gradients in coastal wetlands, Anderson et al., Journal of Ecology Open Access pdf 10.1111/1365-2745.14302
Nitrogen Cycling Feedback on Carbon Dynamics Leads to Greater CH4 Emissions and Weaker Cooling Effect of Northern Peatlands, Zhao & Zhuang, Global Biogeochemical Cycles Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gb007978
Organic Carbon Sources in Surface Sediments on the Northern South China Sea, Lin et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 10.1029/2023jg007909
Quantification and uncertainty of global upland soil methane sinks: Processes, controls, model limitations, and improvements, Song et al., Earth 10.1016/j.earscirev.2024.104758
Quantifying methane emissions from United States landfills, Cusworth et al., Science 10.1126/science.adi7735
Release of ballast material during sea-ice melt enhances carbon export in the Arctic Ocean, Swoboda et al., PNAS Nexus Open Access pdf 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgae081
Review article: Terrestrial dissolved organic carbon in northern permafrost, Heffernan et al., The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-18-1443-2024
Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001
The effect of repeated hurricanes on the age of organic carbon in humid tropical forest soil, Mayer et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.17265
CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering
Careful selection of forest types in afforestation can increase carbon sequestration by 25% without compromising sustainability, Hasegawa et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01336-4
Communities conditionally support deployment of direct air capture for carbon dioxide removal in the United States, Scott-Buechler et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01334-6
Offset ratios and temporary contract designs for climate integrity in carbon farming, Lötjönen et al., Carbon Management Open Access pdf 10.1080/17583004.2024.2329593
Reciprocal cross-correlation analysis of two-phase seepage processes and reservoir heterogeneities in CO2 saline aquifer sequestration, Zhong et al., Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology 10.1002/ghg.2268
Spatio-temporal variation and drivers of blue carbon sequestration in hainan island, Li et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106476
Decarbonization
A comprehensive review of indirect solar drying techniques integrated with thermal storage materials and exergy-environmental analysis, Monicka et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-024-04755-7
Challenges and strategies for managing end-of-life photovoltaic equipment in Brazil: Learning from international experience, Souza et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114091
Direct solar energy conversion on zinc–air battery, Fu et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 10.1073/pnas.2318777121
Geoengineering climate
A Cost Model for Ocean Iron Fertilization as a Means of Carbon Dioxide Removal That Compares Ship- and Aerial-Based Delivery, and Estimates Verification Costs, Emerson et al., Earth’s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef003732
Hemispherically symmetric strategies for stratospheric aerosol injection, Zhang et al., Earth System Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.5194/esd-15-191-2024
Public opinion about solar radiation management: A cross-cultural study in 20 countries around the world, Contzen et al., Climatic Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-024-03708-3
Aerosols
Recent reductions in aerosol emissions have increased Earth’s energy imbalance, Hodnebrog et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01324-8
Climate change communications & cognition
Between evidence first and political fight – understanding dynamics of (de-)politicization in US climate movements’ future narratives, Pavenstädt & Rödder, Environmental Politics 10.1080/09644016.2024.2324710
Increasing Trust in Climate Vulnerability Projections, Ford, Earth’s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef003655
Personality traits and climate change denial, concern, and proactivity: A systematic review and meta-analysis, Cipriani et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.jenvp.2024.102277
Re-examining feelings of responsibility as a predictor of climate belief and worry: A replication across 31 countries, Tedaldi et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2024.102289
Reducing the cognitive abstractness of climate change through an “engineering fiction” learning experience: A natural language processing study, Reynante et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2024.102287
Shifting from Information- to Experience-Based Climate Change Communication Increases Pro-Environmental Behavior Via Efficacy Beliefs, Plechatá et al., Environmental Communication Open Access pdf 10.1080/17524032.2024.2334727
Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change
Bridging farmers’ non-cognitive and self-conscious emotional factors to cognitive determinants of climate change adaptation in southwest Iran, Yazdanpanah et al., Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2024.2332380
Bridging farmers’ non-cognitive and self-conscious emotional factors to cognitive determinants of climate change adaptation in southwest Iran, Yazdanpanah et al., Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2024.2332380
Climate change and its consequences on the climatic zoning of Coffea canephora in Brazil, Lorençone et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-03051-0
Financing Climate-Smart Agriculture: a case study from the Indo-Gangetic Plains, Villalba et al., Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 10.1007/s11027-024-10127-3
Gate-Cane: (Un)tying the knots between climate, cane, and early marriage in rural India, Subramanian, Climate and Development Open Access pdf 10.1080/17565529.2024.2326117
Long-term straw return to a wheat-maize system results in topsoil organic C saturation and increased yields while no stimulating or reducing yield-scaled N2O and NO emissions, Yao et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.109937
Preparing Colombian coffee production for climate change: Integrated spatial modelling to identify potential robusta coffee (Coffea canephora P.) growing areas, González-Orozco et al., Climatic Change 10.1007/s10584-024-03717-2
Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change
A fusion-based framework for daily flood forecasting in multiple-step-ahead and near-future under climate change scenarios: a case study of the Kan River, Iran, Khajehali et al., Natural Hazards 10.1007/s11069-024-06528-x
Evaluating future flood risk mitigation capacities in major cities across China, Dai et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.101890
Factors Contributing to Historical and Future Trends in Arctic Precipitation, Yukimoto et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl107467
Future Heavy Rainfall and Flood Risks for Native Americans under Climate and Demographic Changes: A Case Study in Oklahoma, Li et al., Weather, Climate, and Society 10.1175/wcas-d-23-0005.1
Non-uniform changes of daily precipitation in China: Observations and simulations, Wang et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100665
Simulation of the effects of climate change, crop pattern change, and developing irrigation systems on the groundwater resources by SWAT, WEAP and MODFLOW models: a case study of Fars province, Iran, Shaabani et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-03157-5
The Projected Response of the Water Cycle to Global Warming Over Drylands in East Asia, Ren et al., Earth’s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef004008
Climate change economics
Implementation cost of net zero electricity system: Analysis based on Korean national target, Moon et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114095
Climate change and the circular economy Climate change mitigation public policy research
Assessing the influence of green innovation and environmental policy stringency on CO2 emissions in BRICS, Çetinkaya et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-024-04802-3
Challenges and opportunities for European energy policy and sustainable transformations in the aftermath of Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine, Panda, Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-024-04863-4
Climate sustainability through a dynamic duo: Green hydrogen and crypto driving energy transition and decarbonization, Lal & You, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1073/pnas.2313911121
Democratic Climate Policies with Overlapping Generations, Goussebaïle, Environmental and Resource Economics Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10640-024-00863-0
Effective climate finance coordination? Stakeholder perceptions, climate change policy implementation and the underlying political economy factors in Kenya, Omala et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2024.2335914
Enclaved or linked? Examining local linkage development in the Tanzanian off-grid solar market, Charman et al., Encyclopedia of Autism Spectrum Disorders Open Access 10.1007/978-1-4419-1698-3_100536
Global corporate tax competition challenges climate change mitigation, Duan et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-024-01952-0
Global corporate tax competition leads to unintended yet non-negligible climate impacts, Duan et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-024-01962-y
Green Energy Pathways Towards Carbon Neutrality, Halkos & Aslanidis Jie Saqib, Environmental and Resource Economics Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10640-024-00856-z
Household budget restrictions as reason for staged retrofits: A case study in Spain, Maia et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114047
Low-carbon policy and employment: heterogeneity of workers with different skills, Li et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-024-04803-2
Model-based financial regulations impair the transition to net-zero carbon emissions, Gasparini et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-024-01972-w
Offset ratios and temporary contract designs for climate integrity in carbon farming, Lötjönen et al., Carbon Management Open Access pdf 10.1080/17583004.2024.2329593
Profitability landscapes for competitive photovoltaic self-consumption, López Prol & Paul, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114084
REDD+ at risk: Emerging ten questions that REDD+ must answer, Aryal et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103744
Shining light on residual emissions for cities, Ulpiani et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-024-01961-z
Study on China’s 2030 provincial carbon quota allocation scheme considering the positive and negative effects of historical emissions, Liu et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1349200
The carbon footprint of future engineered wood construction in Montreal, Meyer et al., Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1088/2634-4505/ad2153
The energy transition in the cities of Copenhagen, Helsinki, and Stockholm: Similar or different pathways towards the EU’s 2030 targets?, Maliszewska-Nienartowicz et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.101887
The inequality of household carbon footprint in China: A city-level analysis, Liu & Wang, Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114098
Tourists’ willingness to fund local investments in renewable energy: A contingent valuation study from the Galápagos Islands, Vásquez et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101434
Unveiling urban governance diversity: Clustering cities based on mitigation actions, Mokhles et al., Ambio Open Access pdf 10.1007/s13280-024-01991-z
Violent transitions: towards a political ecology of coal and hydropower in India, Kumar, Climate and Development Open Access pdf 10.1080/17565529.2023.2264259
Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research
Ageing population and green space dynamics for climate change adaptation in Southeast Asia, Kim & Kim, Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-024-01980-w
Correction: A new framework for rapidly assessing national adaptation policies: an application to small island developing states in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans, Robinson et al., Regional Environmental Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10113-024-02221-8
Future Heavy Rainfall and Flood Risks for Native Americans under Climate and Demographic Changes: A Case Study in Oklahoma, Li et al., Weather, Climate, and Society 10.1175/wcas-d-23-0005.1
How can biomechanical measures incorporate climate change adaptation into disaster risk reduction and ecosystem sustainability?, Shirmohammadi et al., Natural Hazards Open Access 10.1007/s11069-024-06496-2
Climate change impacts on human health
Changes in human heat discomfort and its drivers in Bangladesh, Ekra et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.101884
Climate-friendly healthcare: reducing the impacts of the healthcare sector on the world’s climate, Leal Filho et al., Sustainability Science Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11625-024-01487-5
Spatial spillovers of violent conflict amplify the impacts of climate variability on malaria risk in sub-Saharan Africa, Yu et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 10.1073/pnas.2309087121
Climate change & geopolitics
External power dynamics and international climate governance in a crises-constrained world, Nazareth et al., Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2024.2330984
Climate change impacts on human culture
Assessing the inundation risk of cultural heritages along the southwestern coast of Taiwan: present and future, Su et al., Regional Environmental Change 10.1007/s10113-024-02204-9
Effects and perceptions of weather, climate, and climate change on outdoor recreation and nature-based tourism in the United States: A systematic review, Wilkins & Horne, PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000266
Other
Analysing 23 years of warm-season derechos in France: a climatology and investigation of synoptic and environmental changes, Fery & Faranda, Weather and Climate Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.5194/wcd-5-439-2024
Arctic amplification–induced decline in West and South Asia dust warrants stronger antidesertification toward carbon neutrality, Wang et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1073/pnas.2317444121
The Remote Response in the Northern Pacific Climate During Winter to Deforestation in the Maritime Continent, Xiao et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2023jd040372
Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives
Designing water markets for climate change adaptation, Bruno & Jessoe , Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-024-01964-w
Editorial: Innovations in climate resilience, Sanchez et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1401203
Enhancing Indigenous Peoples’ participation in climate policy processes, Hellin et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000392
From academia to a career in climate journalism, Simpkins & Viglione, Nature Reviews Earth & Environment 10.1038/s43017-024-00546-w
We need a solid scientific basis for nature-based climate solutions in the United States, Novick et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1073/pnas.2318505121
Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change
X-Change: The Race to the Top. Cleantech competition between China, Europe, and the United States, Bond et al., RMI
The authors examine the contest between China, Europe, and the United States to make and deploy the energy technologies of the future. China is in the lead in many of the key cleantech races. However, the game is still in its early stages and Europe and the United States have a lot to play for. Furthermore, the competition between these regions will speed up change in the Global South. The authors focus on four races including clean technology supply chains, solar and wind deployment, electric vehicle (EV) sales, and electrification.
Renewable capacity highlights, International Renewable Energy Agency
At the end of 2023, global renewable power capacity amounted to 3,870 GW. Solar accounted for the largest share of the global total, with a capacity of 1,419 GW. Renewable hydropower and wind energy accounted for most of the remainder, with total capacities of 1,268 GW and 1,017 GW respectively. Other renewable capacities included 150 GW of bioenergy and 15 GW of geothermal, plus 0.5 GW of marine energy.
Drilling Deeper, Scott Zimmerman, Global Energy Monitor
The oil and gas industry remains steadfast in its plans to continue developing new fields, even though the consensus is still affirmed that no new oil and gas projects are compatible with limiting warming to 1.5°C. At least 20.3 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe) of new oil and gas discoveries have been announced since the 2021 publication of the International Energy Agency (IEA) Net Zero roadmap said no new developments were needed in its 1.5-degree scenario. At least 20 fields reached a final investment decision (FID) in 2023, sanctioning the extraction of 8 billion boe. By the end of the decade, companies are aiming to sanction nearly four times that amount (31.2 billion boe) across 64 additional fields.
Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Public Health and Nutrition Security, Khandelwal et al., Observer Research Foundation
Climate change poses a significant risk to global food security. Rising temperatures, extreme weather events, and shifting precipitation patterns impact food production, disrupting food supply chains, increasing food prices, and diminishing food safety. These effects are particularly apparent in developing countries, where vulnerable populations struggle to access nutritious foods and small farmers face financial challenges. Tackling the impacts of climate change on food security is crucial to safeguard the future availability of food. The authors highlight the importance of nutrition security and its preparedness against climate change while documenting lessons learned from different places.
China’s Cooperation with Southeast Asia to Support an Ambitious Clean Energy Transition by 2030, Asia Society Policy Institute
The transition toward clean energy has gained momentum across the power sectors in Southeast Asia, with countries in the region scaling up their support to shift away from coal power and embrace cleaner alternatives. The authors examine how China could support this transition.
The EU’s Path Out of the Energy Crisis – Out With the Old, in with the New, Izabela Surwillo and Veronika Slakaityte, Danish Institute for International Studies
The authors analyze the pressing energy issues facing the European Union (EU) after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 to provide a broad overview of the EU’s progress thus far in tackling the energy crisis. The authors track the progress in the diversification of energy imports, energy demand reduction, energy efficiency measures, electricity market design, and deployment of renewables. While the authors offer an overview of the current policy landscape and developmental projections for 2050, they do not cover all energy sectors or technologies or address the multiple technical aspects of the green transition.
Effective US Energy Policy Could Strengthen International Security, Brigham McCown, Hudson Institute
America faces significant geopolitical risk across multiple theaters of operation. With the post–Cold War peace dividend depleted, today’s multipolar political alignment reflects an instability not seen in nearly 100 years. As a new geopolitical status quo emerges, the United States will need a secure source of energy. A responsible energy mix promotes national and economic security while providing a realistic pathway to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This will include hydrocarbons, renewables, nuclear, and lower-emitting energy sources such as geothermal, hydroelectric, and biofuels.
Meeting Growing Electricity Demand Without Gas, Gimon et al., Energy Innovation Policy and Technology
After 15 years of stagnation, new electricity demands from factories, data centers, and electric vehicles are pushing the utility industry to grow again. To serve rising electricity demand and meet the challenge of cleaning up our economy, utilities have a broad range of options to consider. In several “hotspots” for demand growth, an increasing number of utilities are turning to gas plants as the default solution to unexpected growth. But new gas plants come with considerable risks— to resilience, fuel market stability, human health, future carbon regulation, utility net-zero goals, and state policy goals. The authors review viable near-term solutions to meet the demand growth challenge without making risky investments in fossil fuel infrastructure. They discuss utility roles and regulatory responses in implementing modern solutions to meet growing demand and conclude by laying out questions regulators should ask to investigate alternatives to near-term expansions of gas capacity.
Canad’s Fossil Fuel Funding in 2023, Julia Levin, Environmental Defence
In 2023, as people across Canada faced a fossil-fueled affordability crisis and climate disasters continued to ravage the country and the world, the Government of Canada continued providing financial support to an industry that needs to be wound down to avoid catastrophic levels of warming. In 2023, the Government of Canada provided at least $18.553 billion in financial support to fossil fuel and petrochemical companies. This includes $8 billion in loan guarantees for the TransMountain expansion pipeline, $7.339 billion in public financing through crown corporation Export Development Canada, and over $1.3 billion for carbon capture and storage projects. Subsidies for carbon capture are likely to increase significantly in 2024. Over the last four years, the federal government’s total financial support to the oil and gas industry was at least $65 billion. That level of support could have fully funded every major wind and solar project in Canada from 2019-2021 twelve times over.
Atlantic Offshore Wind Transmission Study, Brinkman et al., National Renewable Energy Laboratory
The authors identify and compare different transmission strategies for enabling offshore wind energy deployment along the U.S. Atlantic Coast, from Maine through South Carolina. Ensuring adequate equitable, affordable, and timely transmission access for offshore wind is critical to achieving state clean energy goals as well as the national goal of 30 GW of offshore wind energy by 2030, which would enable the deployment of 110 GW or more by 2050.
An uncertain future. Expanding B.C.’s nascent LNG industry would require big trade-offs for the province’s economy, electricity system, and climate goals, Stefan Pauer and Jana Elbrecht, Clean Energy Canada
For the last 15 years, proponents have touted British Columbia (B.C.) liquefied natural gas (LNG) as a cleaner substitute for coal in Asian power plants that would lower global emissions while growing B.C.’s economy. The LNG industry points to the province’s abundant natural gas reserves, proximity to Asian markets, and the ability to produce LNG with fewer carbon emissions than its competitors as reasons why B.C.’s LNG industry is positioned for takeoff. But the world is a very different place in 2024 than it was in 2009, and cracks are showing in this rosy picture. While the province’s LNG industry is set to begin exports next year, bringing jobs and opportunities to some B.C. communities, the reality is that in the coming years, the world may no longer need B.C.’s LNG. And betting the province’s economy on fossil fuel may instead, deliver rising gas and electricity prices for families while worsening climate change by locking out cleaner, cheaper energy sources.
How National Appliance and Equipment Energy Conservation Standards Can Improve Public Health and Advance Justice40 Initiative Goals, Lauren Boucher, CLASP
The author found that standards adopted over the past 30 years have led to substantial reductions in fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and PM2.5 precursor emissions, which are harmful pollutants that can cause respiratory and cardiovascular health issues such as asthma, lung cancer, or heart disease. Data from 2017 suggest that this reduction could prevent between 1,900 and 4,400 PM2.5-related deaths every year. Using the value of statistical life, this translates to monetary benefits of $18 to $41 billion. Importantly, the author found that the benefits of these standards are distributed relatively equitably among communities with those designated as disadvantaged by Justice40, an initiative aiming to ensure that 40% of the overall benefit of federal climate investments go to disadvantaged communities, receiving a significant share. These findings demonstrate the far-reaching positive impacts of standards and highlight the importance of the US Department of Energy meeting its deadlines for updating approximately 50 appliance efficiency standards, including for water heaters, by January 2025. Finalizing all pending standards could avert 2.5 billion metric tons of greenhouse gas emissions while saving consumers nearly $1 trillion over 30 years, according to the agency.
Feminist climate justice: A framework for action, Turquet et al., UN-Women
The climate crisis is the most pressing issue of our times, one that is threatening progress on gender equality and human rights and hindering the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals. Against this backdrop of rising global temperatures and unfulfilled national pledges, women, girls, and gender-diverse people are mobilizing to demand that their voices be heard in decision-making on climate policy. To answer their demands, the authors describe how to achieve feminist climate justice through four interlinked dimensions; recognition, redistribution, representation, and reparation, and the principles of interdependence and intersectionality. It provides practical guidance on what countries need to do to transition to low-emission economies that are resilient to a changing climate while recognizing the leadership of women, girls, and gender-diverse people in driving the change that is so urgently needed. It zooms in on the global food system as one illustration of how this framework can be applied and provides an analysis of the major barriers to accountability for gender-responsive climate action and how they can be overcome.
The 2024 Community Power Scorecard, Maria McCoy, Institute for Local Self Reliance
The scorecard is a measure of state policies related to energy democracy and utility accountability — state scores suggest lawmakers must take immediate action to improve. Of the 50 states and D.C., only one state scraped an above-average grade (a B), 11 hit the C average, 13 received Ds, and 26 states received a failing F grade. The annual scorecard goes beyond greenhouse gas reductions or renewable generation capacity to evaluate how state policies help or hinder local clean energy action — because community power is necessary for an equitable, democratic transition away from the status quo. The states that score the highest support locally owned distributed generation, empower communities to pursue their own goals and plan for an equitable transition to clean energy. High-scoring states also hold utilities accountable, protecting ratepayers from inflated costs and other abuses of monopoly power
Nuclear Power Plants: NRC Should Take Actions to Fully Consider the Potential Effects of Climate Change, Rusco et al., Government Accountability Office
Climate change is expected to exacerbate natural hazards—including heat, drought, wildfires, flooding, hurricanes, and sea level rise. In addition, climate change may affect extreme cold weather events. Risks to nuclear power plants from these hazards include loss of offsite power, damage to systems and equipment, and diminished cooling capacity, potentially resulting in reduced operations or plant shutdowns. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) addresses risks to the safety of nuclear power plants, including risks from natural hazards, in its licensing and oversight processes. However, NRC’s actions to address risks from natural hazards do not fully consider potential climate change effects. Assessing NRC’s processes to determine whether they adequately address the potential for increased risks from climate change would help ensure NRC fully considers risks to existing and proposed plants. Specifically, identifying any gaps in its processes and developing a plan to address them, including by using climate projections data, would help ensure that NRC adopts a more comprehensive approach to assessing risks and is better able to fulfill its mission to protect public health and safety.
Rebutting 33 False Claims About Solar, Wind, and Electric Vehicles, Jacob Elkin et al, Sabin Center for Climate Change Law
Achieving the United States’ ambitious emissions reduction goals depends in large part on the rapid adoption of wind and solar energy and the electrification of consumer vehicles. However, misinformation and coordinated disinformation about renewable energy is widespread and threatens to undermine public support for the transition. In a new report, the Sabin Center identifies and examines 33 of the most pervasive false claims about solar energy, wind energy, and electric vehicles, with the aim of promoting a more informed discussion.
Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions
We know it’s frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as “On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light” but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article’s relevance and importance.
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- The weekly New Research catch is checked against the Unpaywall database with accessible items being flagged. Especially for just-published articles this mechansim may fail. If you’re interested in an article title and it is not listed here as “open access,” be sure to check the link anyway.
How is New Research assembled?
Most articles appearing here are found via RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance.
Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database.
The objective of New Research isn’t to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers’ impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:
- Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a “yes” to this automatically.
- Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week’s 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.
A few journals offer public access to “preprint” versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. For some key journals this all the mention we’ll see in RSS feeds, so we include such items in New Research. These are flagged as “preprint.”
The section “Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives” includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of “perspectives,” observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.
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