RealClimate: Unforced Variations: Dec 2023

In re to

https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2023/12/unforced-variations-dec-2023/#comment-816604

Dear Barton Paul,

I highly appreciate your correction, thank you very much therefor!

Of course, it is impossible to increase latent heat flux repeatedly. JCM even questioned if the overall convective flux can be artificially increased at all, because he supposes that increasing the latent heat flux just changes the Bowen ratio.

Certainly, I see your result valuable, because it casts justified doubts on the frequently repeated (but never proven) assertion that greenhouse effect of water vapour must overturn the surface cooling caused by latent heat flux. On the other hand, it is clear that the model used in your example is very simple. In this light, I see your contribution just as a further evidence that the role of the water cycle in Earth climate regulation is indeed important.

Actually, when I initiated this debate 8 months ago, my goal was to learn if the state-of-art climate science offers any reasoning for an assertion that the sole anthropogenic “forcing” that has an influence on global climate are emissions of non-condensing greenhouse gases. This assertion occurred in Czech media, and came from authors of an official statement on climate change issued by Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic.

I originally hoped that moderators of this website simply confirm that the role of water cycle in global climate regulation is a standard part of climate science, is taught in textbooks and known to each student of this discipline. After discussions on this forum, I have rather a feeling that although the role of the water cycle is mentioned in textbooks, it is a rather neglected topics in education of the broad public with respect to climate and human influence thereon.

I have therefore an additional plea to you. I would be happy if the moderators issued an article clarifying the status of current understanding of the mainstream climate science to the role of latent heat flux in climate regulation, and answered questions raised in this respect. Could you join me with my plea to the moderators?

Greetings

Tomáš

P.S:
The pending questions are:

1) Your “preindustrial” global energy balance considers convective heat flux 112 W/m2, current estimates are rather about 106 W/m2. Should there be indeed a real decrease of several W/m2, then at least part of the observed global warming could be assigned thereto. If so, why should we believe that merely fixing the greenhouse gas emissions back to the preindustrial level should re-establish the preindustrial climate?

2) There is an objection

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/ffgc.2023.1150191/full

that all available climate models use so called convective parametrization which allegedly does not fit with reality.
The authors of the article suggest that this circumstance causes insensitivity of the models to changes in water cycle intensity – that may, however, not fit with reality, too.

Is the objection raised in the article justified?

P.P.S:
It will be great if other participants of the discussion join this plea as well.