Skeptical Science New Research for Week #52 2023
25 min read
Skeptical Science New Research for Week #52 2023
Posted on 28 December 2023 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Closing out 2023
According to our database, this year in our academic research section we’ve eyeballed, aggregated and listed 6,755 peer reviewed climate-connected research articles, with 42,629 involved investigators and published in 215 journals. Demonstrating both the tight continuity and integration of the overall climate research enterprise as well as climate consilience in plain sight, this year’s new reports established their respective new research launching points by citing 360,902 previous works. Nearly 63% of new work this year was available as open access in one form or another, a solid win for climate communications.
Our government/NGO section has included 441 reports from some 323 distinct organizations, all open access given that these organizations are striving to make a difference in the real world.
Given the resources we’re able to devote to New Research, what we’re able to report is of course not comprehensive.
All in all, the entire year of New Research once again serves as a rather striking example of how absurd is the notion of a “climate conspiracy.” Too many moving parts, by far!
Open access notables
Robust acceleration of Earth system heating observed over the past six decades, Minière et al. (preprint, but… von Schuckmann)
In this study, we demonstrate that since 1960, the warming of the world ocean has accelerated at a relatively consistent pace of 0.15±0.02 W/m2/decade, while the land, cryosphere, and atmosphere have exhibited an acceleration pace of 0.013±0.002 W/m2/decade. This has led to a substantial increase in ocean warming, with a magnitude of 0.82±0.47 W/m2 between the decades 1960-1970 and 2010-2020, which overlays significant decadal-scale variability in ocean warming of up to 0.6 W/m2. Our findings withstand a wide range of sensitivity analyses and are consistent across different observation-based datasets. The long-term acceleration of Earth warming aligns qualitatively with the rise in CO2 concentrations and the decline in aerosol concentration during the same period, but further investigations are necessary to properly attribute these changes.
X-Change: Batteries The Battery Domino Effect, Walter et al., RMI (from this week’s government/NGO section):
The authors highlight the remarkable, exponential growth of battery sales, which is driven by a domino effect of battery technology adoption that cascades from country to country and sector to sector. This battery domino effect is set to enable the phase-out of over half of global fossil fuel demand and be instrumental in abating transport and power emissions, propelling the U.S. to over 60 percent of the way toward a zero-carbon energy system. At the core of the success of batteries lies a reinforcing feedback loop between market scale, cost, and quality. As the battery market grows, unit cost keeps falling and quality keeps rising.
[It would be pleasing to see reports such as the above give at least a nod to external costs.]
Time to treat the climate and nature crisis as one indivisible global health emergency, Zielinski et al., Indian Journal of Medical Research (commentary):
Over 200 health journals call on the United Nations, political leaders and health professionals to recognize that climate change and biodiversity loss are one indivisible crisis and must be tackled together to preserve health and avoid catastrophe. This overall environmental crisis is now so severe as to be a global health emergency.
The finance perspective on fossil fuel divestment, Plantinga & Scholtens, Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability
This paper reviews the fossil fuel divestment literature. It argues that the origin of climate change is in the ‘carbon shield’, meaning that fossil fuel firms are not held sufficiently responsible for their externalities. By divesting from these firms, investors do not want to be complicit. The literature differentiates three dimensions in the fossil fuel divestment debate: Justification, Impact, and Agent. The first discusses the justification for divesting, whereas the second discusses the impact of divesting on financial performance and/or emissions, and the third relates to how to accomplish divesting and its consequences for individual agents. The review concludes that the number of perspectives used to analyze the divestment debate is rising, that the environmental and financial impact of divestment is very limited, and that a wide variety of agents relate to divesting from fossil fuel.
The Impact of Projected Changes in Hurricane Frequencies on U.S. Hurricane Wind and Surge Damage, Jewson, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology:
We investigate how changes in the frequencies of hurricanes of different intensities as a result of climate change may contribute to changes in U.S. economic damage due to wind and surge. We find that economic damage will likely increase as a result of projected increases in the frequency of landfalling hurricanes. Analysis of our results shows that increases in the frequency of category-4 storms are the main driver of the changes. Our best estimate results, based on a multimodel ensemble, give modest increases in damage, but within the ensemble there are individual scenarios that give much larger increases in damage. The inputs on which our study depends are highly uncertain, and our methods are approximate, leading to high levels of uncertainty in our results. Also, the damage changes we consider are only part of the total possible change in hurricane damage due to climate change.
A review of climate change-induced flood impacts and adaptation of coastal infrastructure systems in the United States, Shrestha et al., Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability:
Over the last decade of scientific contributions, there has been a distinct shift in focus from understanding and quantifying coastal flood risks towards adapting coastal infrastructure systems. The majority of the studies are based in the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast and Gulf, while national scale studies are very limited. Although critical to resilient coastal infrastructure systems, the consideration of interdependencies or studies expanding across multiple infrastructure systems are limited. Out of the forward-looking studies that consider future climate scenarios, 39% considered only long-term (year 2100) scenarios, while 27% considered all short-, medium- and long-term scenarios. Considering finite resources and finite infrastructure life span, the ultimate focus on the end of the century climate scenarios extending beyond most of the existing infrastructure’s design life is a challenge to adaptation planning.
The effect of climate change on crop yield anomaly in Europe, Schmidt & Felsche, Climate Resilience and Sustainability:
Our study shows a nonlinear relationship between Europe’s most important climate indicators related to temperature and soil moisture and crop yields for wheat, maize, and barley. The finding confirms previous studies from the United States and Denmark: Troy et al. (2015) and Schlenker et al. (2009) describe the nonlinear and threshold-type relationships between precipitation- and temperature-related climate indicators and crop yields for the United States. In addition, Kristensen et al. (2011) found a nonlinear relationship between mean winter temperature and wheat yields in Denmark. Not only do threshold values for temperature and precipitation lead to a sharp decrease or increase in crop yields, but also for soil moisture.
Retrieving Cloud Sensitivity to Aerosol Using Ship Emissions in Overcast Conditions, Ribeiro et al., Geophysical Research Letters:
Here we investigate the interactions between aerosols and clouds and their impact on climate change. Ship tracks were used to study these interactions, and aerosol emissions from ships were modeled. It was shown that the increase in cloud droplets from ship aerosol was highly sensitive to the speed of the updraft in the clouds. A method was developed to fit the updraft to the observed cloud enhancements; the resultant updrafts were smaller than current estimates, suggesting that the clouds may be less sensitive to aerosols than previously thought.
A phased workflow to define permit-ready locations for large volume CO2 injection and storage, Trevino et al., Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology:
Our case study indicates that to complete preparation of a permit application requires (1) improved lithologic characterization information (thicknesses and horizontal and vertical connectivity) and (2) better definition of poorly defined local faults.
A 37-year record of ocean acidification in the Southern California current, Wolfe et al., Communications Earth & Environment:
The California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigations (CalCOFI) program has collected quarterly samples for seawater inorganic carbon since 1983. The longest time series is at CalCOFI line 90 station 90 from 1984–present, with a gap from 2002 to 2008. Here we present the first analysis of this 37- year time series, the oldest in the Pacific. Station 90.90 exhibits an unambiguous acidification signal in agreement with the global surface ocean (decrease in pH of −0.0015 ± 0.0001 yr−1), with a distinct seasonal cycle driven by temperature and total dissolved inorganic carbon. This provides direct evidence that the unique carbon chemistry signature (compared to other long standing time series) results in a reduced uptake rate of carbon dioxide (CO2) due to proximity to a mid-latitude eastern boundary current upwelling zone.
Rapid warming and degradation of mountain permafrost in Norway and Iceland, Etzelmüller et al., The Cryosphere:
We document that permafrost in Norway and Iceland is warming at a high rate, including the development of taliks in both Norway and Iceland in response to global climate change during the last 20 years. At most sites, ground surface temperature (GST) is apparently increasing more strongly than surface air temperature (SAT). Changing snow conditions appear to be the most important factor for the higher GST rates.
125 articles in 56 journals by 692 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
A new conceptual model of global ocean heat uptake, Gregory et al., Climate Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-023-06989-z
Atmospheric pathway of marine heatwaves over the Northwestern Pacific, Noh et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-023-49833-4
Exceptional sea ice loss leading to anomalously deep winter convection north of Svalbard in 2018, Fu & Myers, Climate Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-023-07027-8
Filtering of the Signal of Sediment Export From a Glacier by Its Proglacial Forefield, Mancini et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl106082
Solar cycle as a distinct line of evidence constraining Earth’s transient climate response, Li & Tung, Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-023-43583-7
Observations of climate change, effects
Analysis of spatial-temporal trends and causes of vapor pressure deficit in China from 1961 to 2020, Dong et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.107199
Assessment of the spatiotemporal evolution and driving forces of meteorological drought in the North China Plain, Yang et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8297
Evaluation of trends and analysis of air temperature and wind on the Antarctic Peninsula using extreme value theory, de Oliveira et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology Open Access 10.1007/s00704-023-04753-1
Heatwave Duration and Heating Rate in a Non-Stationary Climate: Spatiotemporal Pattern and Key Drivers, Chitsaz et al., Earth’s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef003995
Interplay between climate change and climate variability: the 2022 drought in Central South America, Arias et al., Climatic Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-023-03664-4
Rapid warming and degradation of mountain permafrost in Norway and Iceland, Etzelmüller et al., The Cryosphere Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-17-5477-2023
Robust acceleration of Earth system heating observed over the past six decades, Minière et al., Open Access pdf 10.21203/rs.3.rs-3058881/v1
Start&2023&4, Ivanov et al., Open Access pdf 10.3897/bdj.11.e100521.figure4
Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects
A global 5 km monthly potential evapotranspiration dataset (1982–2015) estimated by the Shuttleworth–Wallace model, Sun et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access pdf 10.5194/essd-15-4849-2023
Arctic and Sub-Arctic Mechanisms Explaining Observed Increasing Northward Flow Through the Bering Strait and Why Models May Be Getting It Wrong, Peralta?Ferriz & Woodgate, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl104697
Challenges in the attribution of river flood events, Scussolini et al., WIREs Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1002/wcc.874
ClimShift – A new toolbox for the detection of climate change, Magyari?Sáska et al., Geoscience Data Journal Open Access pdf 10.1002/gdj3.234
Glo3DHydroClimEventSet(v1.0): A global-scale event set of hydroclimatic extremes detected with the 3D DBSCAN-based workflow (1951–2022), Liu & Zhou, International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8289
Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects
CMIP6 precipitation and temperature projections for Chile, Salazar et al., Climate Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-023-07034-9
Effects of CO $$&2$$ vegetation forcing on precipitation and heat extremes in China, Chen et al., Climate Dynamics Open Access 10.1007/s00382-023-07046-5
Evolution of Meridional Heat Transport by Subtropical Western Boundary Currents in a Warming Climate Predicted by High-Resolution Models, Cai et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0100.1
Responses of the Madden–Julian Oscillation to Global Warming: Impacts from Tropical Sea Surface Temperature Changes, Bui et al., Journal of Climate Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0213.1
Sea Ice and Cloud Processes Mediating Compensation between Atmospheric and Oceanic Meridional Heat Transports across the CMIP6 Preindustrial Control Experiment, Kurtakoti et al., Journal of Climate Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0103.1
The 1996 Mid-Atlantic Winter Flood: Exploring Climate Risk through a Storyline Approach, Pettett & Zarzycki, Journal of Hydrometeorology 10.1175/jhm-d-22-0146.1
Winds and Meltwater Together Lead to Southern Ocean Surface Cooling and Sea Ice Expansion, Roach et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl105948
Winter Cloudy Days Will Diminish Over China Under Global Warming, Tan et al., Earth’s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef004030
Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection
Bias correction of modelled precipitation from CORDEX-CORE experiments over the Upper Teesta River Basin, Guchhait et al., Climate Dynamics 10.1007/s00382-023-07043-8
Monte Carlo drift correction – quantifying the drift uncertainty of global climate models, Grandey et al., Open Access pdf 10.5194/egusphere-2022-1515
Performance evaluation of a high-resolution regional climate model in West Africa: sensitivity to land surface schemes, Achugbu et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-023-04800-x
Tropical Precipitation Woes in the Community Earth System Model Version 2, Lofverstrom & Zhu, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl104416
Cryosphere & climate change
Assessing the potential for ice flow piracy between the Totten and Vanderford glaciers, East Antarctica, McCormack et al., Open Access pdf 10.5194/egusphere-2023-872
Modeling Ice Melt Rates From Seawater Intrusions in the Grounding Zone of Petermann Gletscher, Greenland, Gadi et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl105869
Rapid warming and degradation of mountain permafrost in Norway and Iceland, Etzelmüller et al., The Cryosphere Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-17-5477-2023
Spatially heterogeneous effect of climate warming on the Arctic land ice, Maure et al., The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-17-4645-2023
The evolution of future Antarctic surface melt using PISM-dEBM-simple, Garbe et al., Open Access pdf 10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10008
Thinning and surface mass balance patterns of two neighbouring debris-covered glaciers in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau, Zhao et al., The Cryosphere Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-17-3895-2023
Sea level & climate change
Biophysical Drivers of Coastal Treeline Elevation, Molino et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jg007525
Reply to: Sea-level rise may not uniformly accelerate cliff erosion rates, Shadrick et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-44150-w
Sea-level rise and flood mapping: a review of models for coastal management, Déguénon et al., Natural Hazards 10.1007/s11069-023-06225-1
Sea-level rise may not uniformly accelerate cliff erosion rates, Dickson et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-44149-3
Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry
Incidence of the early Toarcian global change on Dasycladales (Chlorophyta) and the subsequent recovery: Comparison with end-Triassic Mass Extinction, Bucur & Reolid, Earth 10.1016/j.earscirev.2023.104666
Limited exchange between the deep Pacific and Atlantic oceans during the warm mid-Pliocene and Marine Isotope Stage M2 “glaciation”, Braaten et al., Climate of the Past Open Access pdf 10.5194/cp-19-2109-2023
Rejuvenating the ocean: mean ocean radiocarbon, CO2 release, and radiocarbon budget closure across the last deglaciation, Skinner et al., Climate of the Past Open Access 10.5194/cp-19-2177-2023
Surface Ocean Cooling in the Eocene North Atlantic Coincides With Declining Atmospheric CO2, Inglis et al., Open Access pdf 10.22541/essoar.169091906.62444464/v1
The past to unravel the future: Deoxygenation events in the geological archive and the anthropocene oxygen crisis, Mancini et al., Earth Open Access 10.1016/j.earscirev.2023.104664
Biology & climate change, related geochemistry
A climate-spatial matrix growth model for major tree species in Lesser Khingan Mountains and responses of forest dynamics change to different representative concentration path scenarios, Sheng et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access pdf 10.3389/ffgc.2023.1309189
Climate-dependent plant responses to earthworms in two land-use types, Liu et al., Oecologia Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00442-023-05493-9
Coral Reef Carbonate Chemistry Reveals Interannual, Seasonal, and Spatial Impacts on Ocean Acidification Off Florida, Palacio?Castro et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gb007789
Discordant upslope range shifts shuffle parasitoid-host species interactions, Colwell, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2318022120
Habitat modulates population-level responses of freshwater salmon growth to a century of change in climate and competition, Price et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.17095
Investigating the impact of climate change on trend shifts of vegetation growth in Gilgit Baltistan, Satti et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2023.104341
Low molecular weight carbohydrate patterns of mangrove macroalgae from different climatic niches under ocean acidification, warming and salinity variation, Borburema et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2023.106316
Phytoplankton thermal trait parameterization alters community structure and biogeochemical processes in a modeled ocean, Anderson et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.17093
Prediction of future potential distributions of Pinus yunnanensis varieties under climate change, Feng et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access pdf 10.3389/ffgc.2023.1308416
Present status, future trends, and control strategies of invasive alien plants in China affected by human activities and climate change, Qin et al., Ecography Open Access pdf 10.1111/ecog.06919
GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry
A 37-year record of ocean acidification in the Southern California current, Wolfe et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-01065-0
A Novel High-Resolution In Situ Tool for Studying Carbon Biogeochemical Processes in Aquatic Systems: The Lake Aiguebelette Case Study, Grilli et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.1029/2022jg007200
Carbon footprint associated with two organic waste management: tunnel composting system versus landfill, Grossi et al., International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology 10.1007/s13762-023-05392-9
Distinct, direct and climate-mediated environmental controls on global particulate and mineral-associated organic carbon storage, Hansen et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17080
Evaluating Methane Emissions From Decommissioned Unconventional Petroleum Wells in British Columbia, Canada, Cahill et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl106496
Large Methane Emissions From Tree Stems Complicate the Wetland Methane Budget, Jeffrey et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jg007679
Long-term changes in the daytime growing season carbon dioxide exchange following increased temperature and snow cover in arctic tundra, Hermesdorf et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17087
Neutral Tropical African CO2 Exchange Estimated From Aircraft and Satellite Observations, Gaubert et al., Open Access pdf 10.22541/essoar.168167225.54628972/v1
Ozonolysis can produce long-lived greenhouse gases from commercial refrigerants, McGillen et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2312714120
Responses of soil organic carbon to climate extremes under warming across global biomes, Wang et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-023-01874-3
Soil organic carbon losses exacerbated by climate extremes, Lugato, Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-023-01873-4
Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001
The blue carbon of southern southwest Atlantic salt marshes and their biotic and abiotic drivers, Martinetto et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-44196-w
Water Stress Dominates 21st-Century Tropical Land Carbon Uptake, Levine et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gb007702
CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering
A phased workflow to define permit-ready locations for large volume CO2 injection and storage, Trevino et al., Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology Open Access 10.1002/ghg.2253
Carbon sequestration in soils and climate change mitigation—Definitions and pitfalls, Don et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.16983
Improving life cycle assessment for carbon capture and circular product systems, Pinto et al., The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11367-023-02272-9
Methodologies for enriched photocatalytic CO2 reduction: an overview, Khan et al., International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology 10.1007/s13762-023-05330-9
Decarbonization
A bottom-up method to analyze the environmental and economic impacts of recycling lithium-ion batteries with different cathode chemistries, Narang et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-04169-x
Carbon footprint associated with two organic waste management: tunnel composting system versus landfill, Grossi et al., International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology 10.1007/s13762-023-05392-9
Long-life lithium-ion batteries realized by low-Ni, Co-free cathode chemistry, Zhang et al., Nature Energy 10.1038/s41560-023-01267-y
Geoengineering climate
Assessing the Impact of Stratospheric Aerosol Injection on US Convective Weather Environments, Glade et al., Earth’s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef004041
Performance assessment for climate intervention (PACI): preliminary application to a stratospheric aerosol injection scenario, Wheeler et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2023.1205515
Aerosols
Retrieving Cloud Sensitivity to Aerosol Using Ship Emissions in Overcast Conditions, Ribeiro et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl105620
Climate change communications & cognition
Climate stress and anxiety, environmental context, and civic engagement: A nationally representative study, Anneser et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2023.102220
Process skeptical populist framing of climate change in right-leaning media, Jett et al., Environmental Politics 10.1080/09644016.2023.2293433
The end of the game: emotional responses of older adults to climate crisis and climate mobilizations in Switzerland, Grand, Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2023.1264495
What the future ocean has in common with an asthma attack, Aloisi, The Anthropocene Review Open Access 10.1177/20530196231204340
Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change
Can knowledge transfer speed up climate change mitigation in agriculture? A randomized experimental evaluation of participatory workshops, Alif et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2023.103662
Climate change and agriculture nexus in Bangladesh: Evidence from ARDL and ECM techniques, Ghosh et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000244
Climate warming worsens thermal resource utilization for practical rice cultivation in China, Zhang et al., International Journal of Biometeorology 10.1007/s00484-023-02609-x
Impact of bioenergy feedstock carbon farming on sustainable aviation fuel viability in the United States, Gautam et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2312667120
The effect of climate change on crop yield anomaly in Europe, Schmidt & Felsche, Climate Resilience and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1002/cli2.61
Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change
Atmospheric River Sequences as Indicators of Hydrologic Hazard in Historical Reanalysis and GFDL SPEAR Future Climate Projections, Bowers et al., Earth’s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef003536
Climate change and urban stormwater: vulnerability analysis of the 2010 floods in Lomé, Togo, Attipo et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2023.1281433
Consideration of climate change impacts on a hydropower scheme in Iran, Khazaei et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-023-04805-6
Hailfall in a Possible Future Climate Using a Pseudo–Global Warming Approach: Hail Characteristics and Mesoscale Influences, Mallinson et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0181.1
Recent variability and trends and projected changes in precipitation in the southeastern United States: a focus on the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin, Diem & Bonsu Bonsu, Theoretical and Applied Climatology Open Access 10.1007/s00704-023-04811-8
Climate change economics
The heterogeneous effects of renewable energy, urbanization and democracy on CO2 emissions: Does economic growth matter?, Nguea & Fotio, Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-04256-z
Climate change mitigation public policy research
(Too) high hopes? How Austrian energy community actors construct their roles in the energy transition, Vogler & Kump, Sustainability Science Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11625-023-01433-x
A review on environmental impacts of renewable energy for sustainable development, Gayen et al., International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology Open Access 10.1007/s13762-023-05380-z
Assessing the impact of renewable energy and non-renewable energy use on carbon emissions: evidence from select developing and developed countries, Rai et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-04001-6
Balancing climate goals and biodiversity protection: legal implications of the 30×30 target for land-based carbon removal, Günther & Ekardt, Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2023.1276606
Benefits of net-zero policies for future ozone pollution in China, Liu et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-23-13755-2023
Company efforts and environmental efficiency: evidence from European railways considering market-based emissions, Benga et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-04295-6
Comprehensive assessment of the carbon neutrality actions from the automotive sector, Princz-Jakovics et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10668-023-04274-x
Coordinating social equity and emissions: Challenges in carbon tax policy, Semet, Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113954
Decision making for net zero policy design and climate action: considerations for improving translation at the research-policy interface: a UK Carbon Dioxide Removal case study, Workman et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2023.1288001
Evaluating the impacts of agricultural development and climate change on the water-energy nexus in Santa Elena (Ecuador), Chengot et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2023.103656
Examining the tourism-induced environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis for India, Sharma et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-04270-1
Nature-based solutions are critical for putting Brazil on track towards net-zero emissions by 2050, Soterroni et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.16984
Operationalising climate-resilient development pathways in the Global South, Taylor et al., Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability Open Access 10.1016/j.cosust.2023.101328
Regional assessment of household energy decision-making and technology adoption in the United States, Antonopoulos et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113940
Role of non-governmental organizations in post-relocation support of reservoir migrations in China: a just transition perspective, Hong et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2023.1339953
The effect of carbon emission trading on enterprises’ sustainable development performance: A quasi-natural experiment based on carbon emission trading pilot in China, Zhang & Xi, Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113960
The unanticipated role of fiscal environmental expenditure in accelerating household carbon emissions: Evidence from China, Cheng et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113962
Treatment of uncertainty in determining the UK’s path to Net Zero, Joffe, Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2023.1243191
Wind power deployment and the impact of spatial planning policies, Meier et al., Environmental and Resource Economics 10.1007/s10640-023-00820-3
Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research
A review of climate change-induced flood impacts and adaptation of coastal infrastructure systems in the United States, Shrestha et al., Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1088/2634-4505/ad097b
Assessing collaboration, knowledge exchange, and stakeholder agency in coastal governance to enhance climate resilience, Rölfer et al., Regional Environmental Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10113-023-02163-7
Climate catastrophe insurance for climate change: what do we know and what lies ahead?, Nobanee & Nghiem, Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability Open Access 10.1016/j.cosust.2023.101395
Envisioning a future with climate change, Harcourt et al., Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.3390/su13126630
Rail industry knowledge, experience and perceptions on the use of nature-based solutions as climate change adaptation measures in Australia and the United Kingdom, Blackwood et al., Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1088/2634-4505/ad14ef
The Impact of Projected Changes in Hurricane Frequencies on U.S. Hurricane Wind and Surge Damage, Jewson, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1175/jamc-d-23-0087.1
Other
The finance perspective on fossil fuel divestment, Plantinga & Scholtens, Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability Open Access 10.1016/j.cosust.2023.101394
Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives
Are the IMO’s new targets for international shipping compatible with the Paris Climate Agreement?, Bullock et al., Climate Policy Open Access pdf 10.1080/14693062.2023.2293081
Equity, diversity and inclusion in climate and energy philanthropy matters, Hoicka, Nature Energy 10.1038/s41560-023-01424-3
Fiddling at the conference of the parties? Peeping into the highs and lows of the post-Kyoto climate change conferences: a review on contexts, decisions and implementation highlights, Nyirenda, Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-04277-8
Integrating equity-focused planning into coral bleaching management, González-Espinosa et al., npj Ocean Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1038/s44183-023-00034-6
Saleemul Huq (1952–2023), Khan & Khan , Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-023-01901-3
Shale gas revolution could paralyse the energy transition, Gerlagh & Smulders, Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-023-01892-1
Time to treat the climate and nature crisis as one indivisible global health emergency, Zielinski et al., Indian Journal of Medical Research Open Access 10.4103/0971-5916.388235
Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change
The Era of Flat Power Demand is Over, John Wilson and Zach Zimmerman, Grid Strategies
Over the past year, grid planners nearly doubled the 5-year load growth forecast. The nationwide forecast of electricity demand shot up from 2.6% to 4.7% growth over the next five years, as reflected in 2023 Federal Energy Regulatory Commission filings. Grid planners forecast peak demand growth of 38 gigawatts (GW) through 2028, requiring rapid planning and construction of new generation and transmission. This is likely an underestimate: Several more recent updates are adding additional GWs to that forecast. Next year’s forecast is likely to show an even higher nationwide growth rate. The main drivers are investment in new manufacturing, industrial, and data center facilities. Since 2021, commitments for industrial and manufacturing facilities have totaled about $481 billion, and over 200 manufacturing facilities have been announced this past year. Data center growth is forecast to exceed $150 billion through 2028. The U.S. electric grid is not prepared for significant load growth. The U.S. installed 1,700 miles of new high-voltage transmission miles per year on average in the first half of the 2010s but dropped to only 645 miles per year on average in the second half of the 2010s. Low transfer capability between regions is a key risk for reliability if load growth outpaces the deployment of new generation in some regions.
Saving [For} the Planet: the Climate Power of Personal Banking, Beck Alexander et al., Project Drawdown and Topo Finance
The authors present a comprehensive guide to assessing and reducing the climate impact of consumer banking. For the average person in the U.S., personal banking may constitute a large source of indirect greenhouse gas emissions. Every US $1,000 a person has in savings is roughly equivalent to the direct emissions generated by flying from New York to Seattle every year. Eleven of the largest U.S.-based banks lend around 19.4% on average – and as high as 30% – of their portfolios to carbon-intensive industries. Moving from a carbon-intensive bank to a climate-responsible bank could reduce the personal banking emissions of an average person in the U.S. by 76%. Switching banks can be a powerful, relatively easy, and affordable climate action.
GenCost 2023-24, Graham et al., Australia’s National Science Agency
The authors update the costs of new-build electricity generation, storage, and hydrogen production with a strong emphasis on stakeholder engagement. The cost of onshore wind generation rose by 8 percent, while large-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) fell by the same proportion. The cost of gas turbine technologies increased by 14 percent. Nuclear small modular reactors (SMRs) emerged as the highest-cost technology explored in the report. This corresponds with new data from the most advanced SMR project in the US.?Variable renewables have the lowest cost range of any new-build technology, both now and in 2030. Initial analysis indicates the inconsistent impact of weakening global inflation is due to the unique material inputs and supply chains of each new build technology.
Blackstart and Next-Start Resource Availability in the Texas Interconnection, North American Reliability Corporation
The authors examined blackstart and next-start resource availability in the Texas Interconnection because of extreme cold weather conditions during the February 2021 cold weather outages in Texas and the South Central United States. The authors also assessed registered entities’ blackstart resource testing, fuel-switching tests, fuel delivery infrastructure, fuel supply contracts, coordination between electric and natural gas entities, and blackstart and system restoration training practices and procedures. Blackstart restoration requires the electric and natural gas entities to work collaboratively across multiple jurisdictions and functional responsibilities, including but not limited to, transmission operators, generator operators, distribution providers, reliability coordinators, and natural gas producers, processors, and transporters.
X-Change: Batteries The Battery Domino Effect, Walter et al., RMI
The authors highlight the remarkable, exponential growth of battery sales, which is driven by a domino effect of battery technology adoption that cascades from country to country and sector to sector. This battery domino effect is set to enable the phase-out of over half of global fossil fuel demand and be instrumental in abating transport and power emissions, propelling the U.S. to over 60 percent of the way toward a zero-carbon energy system. At the core of the success of batteries lies a reinforcing feedback loop between market scale, cost, and quality. As the battery market grows, unit cost keeps falling and quality keeps rising. This feedback loop is fueling a domino effect of adoption. As one sector scales up demand, the cost and quality improvement feedback loops enable batteries to become attractive in the next sector. Batteries started in consumer electronics, moved to motorbikes and buses, and then into cars. Now they are moving into stationary electricity storage and trucking and will be ready to enter short-haul ships and planes by 2030. Once new battery technology is successful, it jumps into geographies. The shift of batteries into the car market was started by early adopters — China is the largest domino to fall — and the transition is now shifting across the rest of the world, from Europe to the United States, from Southeast Asia to India. As the domino effect gains momentum, batteries will become the biggest global cleantech market — larger even than wind turbines or solar panels.
Strategies to Mitigate the Risk to the National Critical Functions Generated by Climate Change, Lauland et al., RAND
The authors examine climate adaptation strategies for 25 National Critical Functions (NCFs) at the greatest risk of disruption from climate change. Climate drivers include major weather events, such as hurricanes or floods, and the effects of sea-level rise or drought. The authors examined the adaptation strategies available, how to assess their effectiveness and feasibility, and what tools are available to assist with these efforts. The focus was on impact pathways — how climate change might disrupt an NCF — each of which is a combination of climate drivers, such as drought and flooding, and impact mechanisms, such as physical damage and workforce shortages, affecting a given NCF. The emphasis is on strategies that owner-operators—state, local, tribal, and territorial governments, and private-sector stakeholders — of critical functions might implement to adapt to such climate risks.
Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions
We know it’s frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as “On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light” but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article’s relevance and importance.
- Unpaywall offers a browser extension for Chrome and Firefox that automatically indicates when an article is freely accessible and provides immediate access without further trouble. Unpaywall is also unscammy, works well, is itself offered free to use. The organizers (a legitimate nonprofit) report about a 50% success rate
- The weekly New Research catch is checked against the Unpaywall database with accessible items being flagged. Especially for just-published articles this mechansim may fail. If you’re interested in an article title and it is not listed here as “open access,” be sure to check the link anyway.
How is New Research assembled?
Most articles appearing here are found via RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance.
Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database.
The objective of New Research isn’t to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers’ impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:
- Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a “yes” to this automatically.
- Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week’s 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.
A few journals offer public access to “preprint” versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. For some key journals this all the mention we’ll see in RSS feeds, so we include such items in New Research. These are flagged as “preprint.”
The section “Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives” includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of “perspectives,” observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.
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