Skeptical Science New Research for Week #51 2023

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Amazon deforestation implications in local/regional climate change, Artaxo, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2317456120

An indisputable link between climate emergency and human health, TONG et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.12.004

Coupled Changes in the Arctic Carbon Cycle Between the Land, Marine, and Social Domains, Wu et al., Earth’s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2022ef003293

Editorial: Nature-based solutions, climate mitigation, biodiversity conservation, Hilmi et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2023.1308032

Editorial: New approaches to local climate change risk analysis, Aall et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2023.1298779

Effective climate adaptation must be imaginative and inclusive, , Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-01150-4

Melting climates shrink North American small mammals, Searing et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2310855120

Poetry and language offer a balm for climate angst, McDermott, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2319793120

Valuing a values-based approach for assessing loss and damage, van Schie et al., Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2023.2289533

Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Arctic Permafrost Atlas, Westerveld et al., GRID-Arendal

The authors present maps and graphics of the highest quality mixed with text, art, and stories to explain some of the complex processes associated with permafrost. They aimed to evoke the experiences of people living on and researching permafrost. The 82 maps and graphics, more than 50,000 words and nine stories cannot entirely do justice to the richness and complexity of the “country of permafrost”, a term coined by Edward A.G. Schuur and colleagues in 2022.

Arctic Report Card 2023, Thoman et al., National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

More frequent extreme weather and climate events are transforming the Arctic, yet resiliency and opportunity lie within diverse partnerships. The Arctic is increasingly warmer, less frozen, and wetter, with regional extremes in weather, climate patterns, and ecosystem responses. Centering locally and internationally focused partnerships, long-term observations, and equitable climate solutions provides Arctic communities and nations as well as society at large with information and mechanisms to cope with a rapidly changing Arctic. Average surface air temperatures for the Arctic in the past year were the sixth warmest since 1900. Sea ice extent continues to decline, with the last 17 September extents (2007-23) as the lowest on record. Sea ice extent was 6th lowest in the satellite record, since 1979. North American snow cover extent set a record low in May 2023, while snow accumulation during the 2022/23 winter was above average across both North America and Eurasia.

India: Climate Change Issues, Kronstadt et al., Congressional Research Service

Global climate change presents multiple challenges to India. The country is faced with meeting its energy and economic development needs, reducing its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and addressing the potential impacts of climate change. India is among the world’s top emitters of greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide (CO2), along with China, the United States, and the European Union; thus, India’s participation in global efforts to mitigate climate change would be crucial to their success. India accounted for 17.5% of the world’s population and 7% of global CO2 emissions in 2021, although its CO2 emissions per capita are comparatively low. Energy use in India has roughly doubled since 2000. The country’s reliance on coal and other fossil fuels results in India emitting more GHGs per unit of energy generated than many other large countries.

Flaws in EPA’s Monitoring and Verification of Carbon Capture Projects, Preet Bains, Environmental Integrity Project

The author examined one central component of carbon capture and sequestration regulation in the U.S.: monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) plans required by the Environmental Protection Agency’s Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program. These plans describe the monitoring strategies in place at each site to validate that the carbon dioxide is securely stored underground and is not leaking or migrating unexpectedly. If approved by EPA, the plans can also be used to qualify for tax subsidies. However, the 21 plans that the EPA approved as of October 31, 2023, are ambiguous and lack key elements to ensure safe and long-term carbon sequestration. Specifically, these plans are not required to include specific monitoring strategies or technologies, allowing companies to write their own rules; often contain ambiguous language that does not commit to explicit monitoring timelines or activities. Several plans lack specific timelines for monitoring and testing, stating they will only continue with the monitoring actions described in the plan “if beneficial,” or even promise to “determine the most appropriate method” to quantify leaks in the event a leak occurs, instead of describing quantification strategies within the plan itself. These plans are difficult to enforce, with no third-party verification of the data.

Is Climate Change Influencing Wildfires? Climate Change Effects on Wildfires in the United States, Jonathan Haskett and Anne Riddle, Congressional Research Service

The authors describe changes in wildfire activity in the United States in recent decades and the potential influence of climate change on wildfires under current and projected climate change conditions.

National Preparedness Report, December 2023, Federal Emergency Management Agency

The authors present a data-driven picture of national preparedness and emergency management trends. This includes focused discussions on four core capabilities (Fire Management and Suppression; Logistics and Supply Chain Management; Public Health, Healthcare, and Emergency Medical Services [EMS]; and Long-Term Vulnerability Reduction) that continue to challenge emergency managers, as well as concrete recommendations that partners and stakeholders across the whole community can take to increase their resilience.

Climate Change in the Courts: A 2023 Thematic Retrospective, Marie Antonia Tigre and Margaret Barry, Sabin Center for Climate Change Law

The report examines key cases and rulings that have shaped the legal discourse on climate change in 2023 or that are poised to have an impact in the coming months and years. Drawing from the Sabin Center’s United States (U.S.) and Global Climate Litigation databases, the report provides examples that offer insights into emerging themes, evolving legal strategies, and the pulse of climate litigation. The report begins with a brief analysis of the growth of climate litigation in 2023, both in terms of the number of cases and the jurisdictions included in the databases. the report then highlights seven key “themes” the Sabin Center observed in climate litigation in 2023

Insights on Climate, Peace and Security, Tarif et al., Stockholm International Peace Research Institute

Climate change is having alarming effects on societies and ecosystems. There is also growing evidence of its impacts on peace and conflict, which is reflected in discussions in the United Nations Security Council. The authors synthesize four key findings from the fact sheet series including (a) the centrality of livelihood to climate-related security risks; (b) how climate change in one location can lead to insecurity risks in another; (c) how climate change interacts with new and existing conflict risks; and (d) conflict as a societal response to climate change. Recommendations that the United Nations Security Council should consider include the following; replicate the specialized advisor role in more countries, develop regional climate security hubs, ensure policies are coherent, and support just climate action.

Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions

We know it’s frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as “On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light”  but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article’s relevance and importance. 

• Unpaywall offers a browser extension for Chrome and Firefox that automatically indicates when an article is freely accessible and provides immediate access without further trouble. Unpaywall is also unscammy, works well, is itself offered free to use. The organizers (a legitimate nonprofit) report about a 50% success rate

• The weekly New Research catch is checked against the Unpaywall database with accessible items being flagged. Especially for just-published articles this mechansim may fail. If you’re interested in an article title and it is not listed here as “open access,” be sure to check the link anyway. 

How is New Research assembled?

Most articles appearing here are found via  RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance. 

Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database. 

The objective of New Research isn’t to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers’ impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:

• Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a “yes” to this automatically. 
• Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week’s 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.

A few journals offer public access to “preprint” versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. For some key journals this all the mention we’ll see in RSS feeds, so we include such items in New Research. These are flagged as “preprint.”

The section “Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives” includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of “perspectives,” observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.

Suggestions

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Journals covered

A list of journals we cover may be found here. We welcome pointers to omissions, new journals etc.

Previous edition

The previous edition of Skeptical Science New Research may be found here.