Skeptical Science New Research for Week #45 2023

Climate change economics

Financial innovation for climate justice: central banks and transformative ‘creative disruption’, Stephens & Sokol, Climate and Development Open Access pdf 10.1080/17565529.2023.2268589

Fossil fuels, stranded assets, and the energy transition in the Global South: A systematic literature review, Heras & Gupta, WIREs Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1002/wcc.866

Putting human rights in the centre, Parsons, Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-023-01850-x

The asymmetric effects of climate risk on higher-moment connectedness among carbon, energy and metals markets, Zhou et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-42925-9

Turning climate justice into practice? Channeling loss and damage funding through national social protection systems in climate-vulnerable countries, Huber & Murray, WIREs Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1002/wcc.867

Climate change mitigation public policy research

A perspective on tools for assessing the building sector’s greenhouse gas emissions and beyond, Greer et al., Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1088/2634-4505/ad064d

Allocation of policy resources for energy storage development considering the Inflation Reduction Act, Shan & Kittner, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113861

Brazilian Biofuels Policy (RenovaBio): Overview and generation of decarbonization credits by biodiesel production facilities, Tiburcio et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2023.101334

Building and carbon emissions: Evidence from real estate purchase restriction policy, Song et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2023.101726

Fossil fuel communities support climate policy coupled with just transition assistance, Gazmararian, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113880

Government regulation, horizontal coopetition, and low-carbon technology innovation: A tripartite evolutionary game analysis of government and homogeneous energy enterprises, Zhou et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113844

How does green finance achieve urban carbon unlocking? Evidence from China, Liu et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2023.101742

Identifying energy model fingerprints in mitigation scenarios, Dekker et al., Nature Energy Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41560-023-01399-1

Identifying the influence factors on low-carbon behavior of employees from petrochemical enterprise under “Carbon Neutrality”, Zhao et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-022-02675-y

Offshore wind power in the Asia-Pacific: Expert elicitation on costs and policies, Hughes & Longden, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113842

Projecting Future Energy Production from Operating Wind Farms in North America. Part III: Variability, Coburn & Pryor, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 10.1175/jamc-d-23-0104.1

Revealing the spatio-temporal characteristics and impact mechanism of carbon emission in China’s urban agglomerations, Wang et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2023.101733

The climate test: a tool to evaluate alignment of energy infrastructure decisions with climate goals, Bustamante et al., Climate Policy Open Access pdf 10.1080/14693062.2023.2239754

The EU carbon border adjustment mechanism: implications on Brazilian energy intensive industries, Perdana et al., Climate Policy Open Access pdf 10.1080/14693062.2023.2277405

The impact of carbon policy on carbon emissions in various industrial sectors based on a hybrid approach, Qu & Ma, Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-022-02673-0

The land sector in the low carbon emission strategies in the European Union: role and future expectations, Di Lallo et al., Climate Policy Open Access pdf 10.1080/14693062.2023.2273948

Using historical institutionalism as a guidepost to understanding policy change in Rust Belt cities, Bick, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 10.1007/s11027-023-10091-4

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Contribution of perceptions to the acceptability of adaptation tools to sea level rise, Bazart et al., Climate Policy Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2023.2273944

The application of collaborative governance in local level climate and disaster resilient development – A global review, McNaught, Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2023.103627

Climate change impacts on human health

Climate change and human health: estimating district-level health vulnerabilities in the Indian context, Chaudhry & Mukhopadhyay Mukhopadhyay, Climatic Change Open Access 10.1007/s10584-023-03630-0

Climate change hazards, physical infrastructure systems, and public health pathways, Ikonomova & MacAskill, Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1088/2634-4505/acfabd

Climate change-related health hazards in daycare centers in Munich, Germany: risk perception and adaptation measures, Lehmann et al., Regional Environmental Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10113-023-02136-w

Discovery of spatial climate parameters and bioclimatic comfort change simulation in Türkiye under socioeconomic pathway scenarios: A basin-scale case study for urban environments, Isinkaralar, Natural Hazards 10.1007/s11069-023-06237-x

Other

A negative carbon footprint natural biological system water solution: evidence from Delhi, India, Cohen & Cohen, Environment Systems and Decisions 10.1007/s10669-023-09948-5

Increasing compound hazard of landfalling tropical cyclones in China during 1980–2020, Tan et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8296

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Accounting for forest fire risks: global insights for climate change mitigation, Chu et al., Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11027-023-10087-0

Climate change hazards, physical infrastructure systems, and public health pathways, Ikonomova & MacAskill, Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1088/2634-4505/acfabd

Do Two Climate Wrongs Make a Right?, Schimel & Miller Miller, AGU Advances Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023av001020

In Africa, “climate-smart” conservation must be coupled with poverty alleviation, Ali et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2309279120

‘Oceans are hugely complex’: modelling marine microbes is key to climate forecasts, Tagliabue, Nature 10.1038/d41586-023-03425-4

Book reviews

Mike Hulme. Climate change isn’t everything: liberating climate politics from alarmism, Bernstein, Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences 10.1007/s13412-023-00870-5

Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Adaptation Gap Report 2023: Underfinanced. Underprepared – Inadequate investment and planning on climate adaptation leaves world exposed, United Nations Environment Programme

The authors found that progress on climate adaptation is slowing when it should be accelerating to catch up with these rising climate change impacts. The authors examined progress in planning, financing, and implementing adaptation actions. They found that the adaptation finance needs of developing countries are 10-18 times as big as international public finance flows. This is over 50 percent higher than the previous range estimate. The modeled costs of adaptation in developing countries are estimated at US $215 billion per year this decade. The adaptation finance needed to implement domestic adaptation priorities is estimated at US $387 billion per year. Despite these needs, public multilateral and bilateral adaptation finance flows to developing countries declined by 15 percent to US $21 billion in 2021. As a result of the growing adaptation finance needs and faltering flows, the current adaptation finance gap is estimated at US $194-366 billion annually. At the same time, adaptation planning and implementation appear to be plateauing. This failure to adapt has massive implications for losses and damages, particularly for the most vulnerable. The authors recommend seven ways to increase financing, including through domestic expenditure and international and private sector finance. Additional avenues include remittances, increasing and tailoring finance to small and medium enterprises, and a reform of the global financial architecture. The new Loss and Damage fund will also need to move towards more innovative financing mechanisms to reach the necessary scale of investment.

Towards Fossil Fuel-Free Food, The Global Alliance for the Future of Food

The authors provide a better understanding of the interconnectedness between food and energy systems, with a specific emphasis on the role of fossil fuels. They aim to unveil the trade-offs, synergies, gaps, and opportunities that arise within this nexus to identify and recommend near-term opportunities for enhanced coordination and collaboration among food and energy systems policymakers, funders, and advocates. Their focus is on finding ways to reduce the dependency on fossil fuels in food systems.

Power Shift, The Global Alliance for the Future of Food

The authors call for action among all stakeholders in the food and energy sectors — as well as advocates, funders, and policymakers — to work together in the transition away from fossil fuels and toward a sustainable future, in which global warming is limited to 1.5°C (2.7°F). They also underscore the importance of collaboration in order to phase out fossil fuels, aligning everyone’s efforts with the objectives of the Paris Agreement.

Californians support state policies aimed at transitioning to renewable energy sources, Mark DiCamill, Institute of Governmental Studies, University of California, Berkeley

A large majority of California voters (60%) support the state’s climate change policies aimed at increasing its use of renewable energy sources and reducing its reliance on oil and carbon-based sources. The latest poll finds that most voters either say the current pace at which California is implementing its climate change policies is about right (23%) or feel it is not moving fast enough (37%). In addition, an early two-to-one majority (52% to 27%) also gives thumbs up to the construction of offshore wind turbines visible from the shore along the California coast. However, views about the state’s climate policies are highly partisan. Most Democrats (53%) believe the state is not moving fast enough in implementing these policies while another 27% say it is moving at about the right pace. By contrast, two in three Republicans (67%) maintain that state policies on climate change are moving too fast. In addition, by a four-to-one margin (63% to 16%) Democrats back the construction of offshore wind turbines along the California coast, while Republicans stand opposed by 53% to 31%. Younger voters are more supportive of increasing the pace at which the state is transitioning to renewable energy sources than older voters, whose views about this are more divided.

National Transmission Needs Study, US. Department of Energy

The authors present information to identify high-priority national electric transmission needs and to identify geographic areas where the bulk power grid would benefit from new, updated, or upgraded transmission facilities. The author’s work will inform DOE as it coordinates the use of its authorities that relate to electric transmission. For example, the results of this study implement various provisions of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) and the Inflation Reduction Act relating to transmission expansion, grid resilience, and grid technology. The study will also support the implementation of existing Department of Energy programs, including the Department’s numerous funding programs, technical assistance, and broader transmission planning activities, and the potential designation of National Interest Electric Transmission Corridors. DOE expects that this study will also help inform existing industry-led transmission planning processes, including the regional transmission planning processes conducted in accordance with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s regulations and policies.

Chemical Recycling: A Dangerous Deception, Bell et al., Beyond Plastics and IPEN

Chemical recycling — or what the industry likes to call “advanced recycling” — is increasingly touted as a solution to the plastic waste problem. However, the authors show this technology has not worked for decades, it is still failing, and it threatens the environment, the climate, human health, and environmental justice. The authors investigate all 11 constructed chemical recycling facilities in the United States, their output, their financial backing, and their contribution to environmental pollution.

Clean Economy Works, Environmental Entrepreneurs

The authors use the original $86 billion in estimated capital expenditures that companies announced in investments for new developments after the signing of the Inflation Reduction in 2022. The authors extrapolate another $20 billion in additional capital expenditures for project announcements that did not include a dollar amount or required an updated estimate based on available information. In addition to the direct benefits of these expenditures, new modeling measures the broader economic benefits and the multiplier effect of the investments and jobs expected if the 210 announced projects were completed over the next five years.

Less War, Less Warming: A Reparative Approach to US and UK Military Ecological Damages, Bigger et al., Common-Wealth

Among all government institutions worldwide, the U.S. and UK militaries bear some of the greatest responsibility for climate crisis. Despite this, emissions from military sources are not addressed in international climate agreements: as a result of U.S. lobbying, overseas military emissions were made exempt from the 1997 Kyoto Protocol and military emissions reporting remained optional in the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement. Even if using opaque official data, the UK and U.S. militaries have jointly emitted at least 430 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent since the year of the Paris Climate Agreement — more than the total greenhouse gas emissions produced in the UK in 2022. While several other militaries are also leading institutional emitters, the authors focus on the joint climate impact of the U.S. and UK militaries for three reasons: first, their historic role in the development of the global fossil fuel economy; second, their current consumption of fossil fuels, associated greenhouse gas emissions and the environmental damage produced by their military infrastructure; third, the U.S. and UK governments’ allocation of public investment towards carbon-intensive industrial sectors to supply their militaries when they could better prioritize green industrial policy.

Funding trends 2023: Climate change mitigation philanthropy, Desanlis et al., Climateworks

The authors estimate that total philanthropic giving by foundations and individuals reached an estimated $811 billion in 2022, of which $7.8 billion to $12.8 billion was focused on climate change mitigation. In 2022, overall philanthropic giving remained essentially unchanged compared with 2021 amounts, as did philanthropic giving to climate change mitigation. Factors that contributed to the lack of funding increases include challenging global economic conditions in 2022 and the fact that 2021 was a particularly remarkable year in terms of giving levels. Overall, total giving to climate change mitigation from individuals and foundations represented less than 2% of global philanthropic giving in 2022. In this decisive moment for the planet, philanthropy must rapidly raise its ambition for advancing transformative climate solutions — in partnership with a wider range of communities, movements, and organizations — and move more funds faster to the places that need them most.

Complicit. Bank of America’s Role in Fossil Fuel Expansion and the Violation of Human Rights, Rainforest Action Network

Bank of America is the 5th largest global bank by assets and has provided $279.7 billion in financing (lending and underwriting) to fossil fuel companies since 2016, the year the Paris Climate Agreement went into effect. This represents approximately 4% of its overall financing across the global economy. Bank of America committed to net zero emissions across its operations by 2050 in 2021, but to date has made inadequate progress towards its stated goals, leaving a long way to go to achieve that ambition. The authors highlight Bank of America’s financing for some of the worst companies developing fossil fuel expansion projects that by definition infringe on human rights. Bank of America’s current policies and financing practices enable it to profit from climate chaos by leveraging the hard-earned dollars of the individual customers it claims to care about, despite its stated commitment to respecting human rights and mitigating climate change.

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How is New Research assembled?

Most articles appearing here are found via  RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance. 

Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database. 

The objective of New Research isn’t to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers’ impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:

• Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a “yes” to this automatically. 
• Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week’s 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.

A few journals offer public access to “preprint” versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. For some key journals this all the mention we’ll see in RSS feeds, so we include such items in New Research. These are flagged as “preprint.”

The section “Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives” includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of “perspectives,” observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.

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