Skeptical Science New Research for Week #39 2023

Posted on 28 September 2023 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack

Open access notables

“Net zero is only a distraction— we just have to end fossil fuel emissions.” The latter is true but the former isn’t, or  not in the real world as it’s likely to be in the immediate future. And “just” just doesn’t enter into it; we don’t have a simple problem on our hands. Net zero is afflicted by various carpetbaggers and the fossil fuel industry itself— plus plain old human nature in the form of wishful thinking. But fully eliminating hydrocarbon fuels and non-fuel CO2 emissions from key industrial processes spanning from agriculture through production of concrete and on to manufacture of steel is going to be a long process. Likely we’ll never be able to eliminate GHG side-products from our culture. Quite arguably we’re not going to stop eating and using concrete and steel, and equally it’s arguable that if we want to keep global warming contained to survivable limits then it’s better not to embrace a fantasy and instead maintain our grip on reality. Fortunately we’re keeping track of that. In this week’s government/NGO section, we have the IEA‘s fresh report on how we can juggle conflicting requirements, Net Zero Roadmap. A Global Pathway to Keep the 1.5 °C Goal in Reach. Critics of net zero will do better by understanding the topic, and this is a good place to start. 

The Estimated Climate Impact of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai Eruption Plume, Schoeberl et al., Geophysical Research Letters: what’s it got to do with anthropogenic climate change? Nothing, and everything. This paper does what it advertises; it analyzes the climatic effects of a violent volcanic eruption. Necessarily it employs essentially all of the same fundamental physics, application of physics to general understanding and modeling of Earth’s climate system as does our understanding of climate change caused by humans. This leads to a problem for climate science deniers: when one denys the science of anthropogenic climate change, one is claiming we know little or nothing in general about physics, and in turn how Earth’s climate functions. So, the wretched challenge deniers create for themselves is that they must not only find traction for argument against papers investigating human influences on climate but must also (if they’re attempting to be coherent) also find solid means for disagreement with such works as these authors’ paper. Good luck with that. 

Christopher Piecuch and Lisa Beal bring us Robust Weakening of the Gulf Stream During the Past Four Decades Observed in the Florida Straits, in Geophysical Research Letters. Climate models and other research hints that the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation may be weakening, but observational evidence of that is lacking.  The impact of such weakening on human affairs would be significant, so more information sooner is better. The significance of this paper is that weakening of the Gulf Stream is consistent with what we might expect from broader decline in meridional overturning circulation, and here we see strong evidence of such a slowdown in a sizable region of the Gulf Stream. It builds and extends other related work. There is of course more important work to do, and Piecuch and Beal pull that together and discuss future plans.

Another mixed bag, maybe with treats: Overlooked Long-Term Atmospheric Chemical Feedbacks Alter the Impact of Solar Geoengineering: Implications for Tropospheric Oxidative Capacity, Moch et al., AGU Advances. The authors bother to apply an atmospheric geochemistry model to analyze knock-on effects of stratospheric sulfate aerosol injection and while they find some possible unanticipated benefits (hello, Patrick Brown!), they conclude:

Without considering long-term chemical feedbacks, estimates of the climate effects of geoengineering may embody significant errors, especially with regards to the seasonal and spatial pattern of radiative forcing. Our analysis suggests that deploying geoengineering methods designed to avoid stratospheric ozone depletion may be counterproductive for climate and public health goals. The complexity of the climate system and the possibility of unexpected “surprises” is often pointed to as a reason for caution when considering geoengineering as a means to mitigate the harms resulting from climate change (Kravitz & MacMartin, 2020; Robock, 2020). Given that the geoengineering research community has not previously identified long-term chemical feedbacks as a key uncertainty (Lee et al., 2021; National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, 2021; Patt et al., 2022), this work reveals just such a “surprise” with respect to prior studies.

Given developments with Antarctic sea ice and the trend of recent westerly winds in lower southern latidudes obediently following model projections, Warming beneath an East Antarctic ice shelf due to increased subpolar westerlies and reduced sea ice just published by Lauber et al. in Nature Geoscience is quite conspicuous.

123 articles in 56 journals by 678 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

A review of ENSO teleconnections at present and under future global warming, Alizadeh, WIREs Climate Change 10.1002/wcc.861

AMOC decline and recovery in a warmer climate, Nobre et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-023-43143-5

The competition between anthropogenic aerosol and greenhouse gas climate forcing is revealed by North Pacific water-mass changes, Shi et al., Science Advances Open Access pdf 10.1126/sciadv.adh7746

Why Has the Summertime Central U.S. Warming Hole Not Disappeared?, Eischeid et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0716.1

Observations of climate change, effects

A warmer and wetter Arctic: Insights from a 20-year AIRS record, Boisvert et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2023jd038793

Arctic permafrost thawing enhances sulfide oxidation, Kemeny et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles Open Access pdf 10.1029/2022gb007644

Arctic warming drives striking twenty-first century ecosystem shifts in Great Slave Lake (Subarctic Canada), North America’s deepest lake, Rühland et al., Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 10.1098/rspb.2023.1252

High-resolution data reveal a surge of biomass loss from temperate and Atlantic pine forests, contextualizing the 2022 fire season distinctiveness in France, Vallet et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-20-3803-2023

Highlighting climate change by applying statistical tests and climate indices to the temperature of Kébir Rhumel watershed, Algeria, Kabour & Chebbah, Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-023-04660-5

Influence of Arctic Sea ice and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation on the recent increase of winter extreme snowfall in Northeast China, Gao et al., Atmospheric Research Open Access 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.107030

Long term trends and variabilities of rainfall of the global monsoon systems during boreal and austral summer seasons, Fazal et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2023.104251

Robust historical and future drying trends in Central Asia evidenced by the latest observation and modeling datasets, Qiu et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.107033

Soil heat extremes can outpace air temperature extremes, García-García et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-023-01812-3

Trend and Drivers of Satellite-detected Burned Area Changes across Arctic Region since the 21st Century, Xing & Wang, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2023jd038946

Warming beneath an East Antarctic ice shelf due to increased subpolar westerlies and reduced sea ice, Lauber et al., Nature Geoscience Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41561-023-01273-5

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

Do salinity variations along the East Greenland shelf show imprints of increasing meltwater runoff?, Schiller?Weiss et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jc019890

Evaluating altimetry-derived surface currents on the south Greenland shelf with surface drifters, Coquereau & Foukal, Ocean Science Open Access pdf 10.5194/os-19-1393-2023

Linking Historical and Projected Trends in Extreme Precipitation with Cumulative Carbon Dioxide Emissions, Moore et al., Atmosphere 10.1080/07055900.2023.2259328

Spatiotemporal variability in pH and carbonate parameters on the Canadian Atlantic continental shelf between 2014 and 2022, Gibb et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access pdf 10.5194/essd-15-4127-2023

Trends in the application of remote sensing in blue carbon science, Araya?Lopez et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.10559

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

European Summer Synoptic Circulations and Their Observed 2022 and Projected Influence on Hot Extremes and Dry Spells, Herrera?Lormendez et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl104580

Future extreme precipitation changes in the South Asian Summer Monsoon Dominance Region, Deegala et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.107029

More Frequent and Persistent Heatwaves Due To Increased Temperature Skewness Projected by a High-Resolution Earth System Model, Gao et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl105840

On the Control of Northern Hemispheric Feedbacks by AMOC: Evidence from CMIP and Slab Ocean Modeling, Eiselt & Graversen, Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0884.1

Processes Controlling the Seasonally Varying Emergence of Forced Arctic Longwave Radiation Changes, Shaw & Kay, Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0020.1

Projected changes in extreme climate events over Africa under 1.5 , 2.0 and 3.0 global warming levels based on CMIP6 projections, Ayugi et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106872

Projections of Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation Patterns and Associated Temperature and Precipitation over the Pacific Northwest Using CMIP6 Models, Taylor et al., Journal of Climate Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0108.1

Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

Assessing CMIP6 simulations of Arctic sea ice drift: role of near-surface wind and surface ocean current in Model Performance, Wang et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.09.005

Comment on “Advanced Testing of Low, Medium, and High ECS CMIP6 GCM Simulations Versus ERA5-T2m” by N. Scafetta (2022), Schmidt et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2022gl102530

Performance evaluation of climate models in the simulation of precipitation and average temperature in the Brazilian Cerrado, Ferreira et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-023-04665-0

Reply to “Comment on ‘Advanced Testing of Low, Medium, and High ECS CMIP6 GCM Simulations Versus ERA5-T2m’ by N. Scafetta (2022)” by Schmidt et al. (2023), Scafetta, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl104960

Systematic Errors in Weather and Climate Models: Challenges and Opportunities in Complex Coupled Modeling Systems, Frassoni et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-23-0102.1

Understanding Surface Air Temperature Cold Bias over China in CMIP6 Models, Wang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2023jd039515

Use-Inspired, Process-Oriented GCM Selection: Prioritizing Models for Regional Dynamical Downscaling, Goldenson et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-23-0100.1

Cryosphere & climate change

A warmer and wetter Arctic: Insights from a 20-year AIRS record, Boisvert et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2023jd038793

Antarctic Ice Sheet paleo-constraint database, Lecavalier et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access pdf 10.5194/essd-15-3573-2023

A warmer and wetter Arctic: Insights from a 20-year AIRS record, Boisvert et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2023jd038793

Antarctic Ice Sheet paleo-constraint database, Lecavalier et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access pdf 10.5194/essd-15-3573-2023

Deglaciation of northwestern Greenland during Marine Isotope Stage 11, Christ et al., Science 10.1126/science.ade4248

Ice-Front Retreat Controls on Ocean Dynamics Under Larsen C Ice Shelf, Antarctica, Poinelli et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl104588

Observations of grounding zones are the missing key to understand ice melt in Antarctica, Rignot, Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-023-01819-w

SE-Dome II ice core dating with half-year precision: Increasing melting events from 1799 to 2020 in southeastern Greenland, Kawakami et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2023jd038874

The non-local impacts of Antarctic subglacial runoff, Goldberg et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jc019823

Sea level & climate change

Future Marsh Evolution Due To Tidal Changes Induced by Human Adaptation to Sea Level Rise, Balderas Guzman et al., Earth’s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef003518

Rising Coastal Groundwater as a Result of Sea-Level Rise Will Influence Contaminated Coastal Sites and Underground Infrastructure, Hill et al., Earth’s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef003825

Shoreline response to sea-level rise according to equilibrium beach profiles, Luque et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-023-42672-3

Venice and its lagoon fin de siecle, Tagliapietra & Umgiesser, Regional Environmental Change 10.1007/s10113-023-02120-4

Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

Climate change alone cannot explain boreal caribou range recession in Quebec since 1850, Morineau et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.16949

Deeper topsoils enhance ecosystem productivity and climate resilience in arid regions, but not in humid regions, Zhang et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.16944

Direct and indirect relationships of climate and land use change with food webs in lakes and streams, Barbosa & Siqueira, Global Ecology and Biogeography 10.1111/geb.13766

Effect of ocean warming on pigment and photosynthetic carbon fixation of plankton assemblage in Pingtan Island of Southeast China, Zhang et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2023.106196

Filter-feeding gelatinous macrozooplankton response to climate change and implications for benthic food supply and global carbon cycle, Clerc et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.16942

Future Marsh Evolution Due To Tidal Changes Induced by Human Adaptation to Sea Level Rise, Balderas Guzman et al., Earth’s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef003518

Heat-induced maternal effects shape avian eggshell traits and embryo development and phenotype at high incubation temperatures, Hoffman et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.10546

Impacts of Atlantic water intrusion on interannual variability of the phytoplankton community structure in the summer season of Kongsfjorden, Svalbard under rapid Arctic change, Zhang et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2023.106195

Phosphorus nutrition strategies in a Symbiodiniacean species: Implications in coral-alga symbiosis facing increasing phosphorus deficiency in future warmer oceans, Li et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.16945

Reproducibility crisis and gravitation towards a consensus in ocean acidification research, Connell & Leung, Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-023-01828-9

Thermotolerant coral–algal mutualisms maintain high rates of nutrient transfer while exposed to heat stress, Kemp et al., Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences Open Access 10.1098/rspb.2023.1403

Vegetation resilience does not increase consistently with greening in China’s Loess Plateau, Wang et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-01000-3

GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

A national-scale assessment of land use change in peatlands between 1989 and 2020 using Landsat data and Google Earth Engine—a case study of Ireland, Habib & Connolly, Regional Environmental Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10113-023-02116-0

Deterministic and stochastic components of atmospheric CO inside forest canopies and consequences for predicting carbon and water exchange, Muñoz & Sierra, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109624

Drivers of microbially and plant-derived carbon in topsoil and subsoil, Huang et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.16951

Inner Mongolia grasslands act as a weak regional carbon sink: A new estimation based on upscaling eddy covariance observations, You et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109719

Long-term trends in carbon and color signal uneven browning and terrestrialization of northern lakes, Rodríguez-Cardona et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-00999-9

Long-term herbivore removal experiments reveal how geese and reindeer shape vegetation and ecosystem CO2-fluxes in high-Arctic tundra, Petit Bon et al., Journal of Ecology Open Access pdf 10.1111/1365-2745.14200

On the Influence of Hydroxyl Radical Changes and Ocean Sinks on Estimated HCFC and HFC Emissions and Banks, Wang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl105472

Reporting carbon fluxes from unmanaged forest, Nabuurs et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-01005-y

Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001

Technical note: Skirt chamber – an open dynamic method for the rapid and minimally intrusive measurement of greenhouse gas emissions from peatlands, Thalasso et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-20-3737-2023

The booming non-food bioeconomy drives large share of global land-use emissions, Wang et al., Global Environmental Change 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102760

CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

A net-zero emissions strategy for China’s power sector using carbon-capture utilization and storage, Fan et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-41548-4

Blue carbon benefits from global saltmarsh restoration, Mason et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.16943

Carbon removal demonstrations and problems of public perception, Waller et al., WIREs Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1002/wcc.857

Decarbonization

Efficient floating offshore wind realization: A comparative legal analysis of France, Norway and the United Kingdom, Ryenbakken & Nieuwenhout, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113801

Evaluating long-term low emission development strategies and implications for the remaining global carbon budget, Cruanyes et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2023.2260785

Future photovoltaic solar power resources in Zambia: a CORDEX-CORE multi-model synthesis, Libanda & Paeth, Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00703-023-00990-1

Global iron and steel plant CO2 emissions and carbon-neutrality pathways, Lei et al., Nature 10.1038/s41586-023-06486-7

Performance assessment and root-cause analysis of a deteriorating On-Grid Industrial PV System for the identification of newly originating power degrading defect, Khan et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2023.101306

Plant-by-plant decarbonization strategies for the global steel industry, Xu et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-023-01808-z

Road transportation emissions and energy consumption in cold climate cities, Abediasl et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2023.101697

Geoengineering climate

Overlooked Long-Term Atmospheric Chemical Feedbacks Alter the Impact of Solar Geoengineering: Implications for Tropospheric Oxidative Capacity, Moch et al., AGU Advances Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023av000911

Black carbon

Strong haze-black carbon-climate connections observed across northern and eastern China, Zhang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2023jd038505

Aerosols

Anomalous Northward Energy Transport due to Anthropogenic Aerosols during the Twentieth Century, Needham & Randall, Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0798.1

Anthropogenic Aerosols Delay the Emergence of GHGs-Forced Wetting of South Asian Rainy Seasons Under a Fossil-Fuel Intensive Pathway, Singh et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl103949

Climate change communications & cognition

A Review of CLT-based Empirical Research on Climate Change Communication from 2010 to 2021, Kim, Environmental Communication 10.1080/17524032.2023.2259625

Implementing climate literacy in schools — what to teach our teachers?, Leve et al., Climatic Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-023-03607-z

Viewing Weather as the Expression of Climate, Seitter, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-23-0154.1

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Changing maize hybrids helps adapt to climate change in Northeast China: revealed by field experiment and crop modelling, Zhao et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109693

Crop residue retention increases greenhouse gas emissions but reduces chemical fertilizer requirement in a vegetable-rice rotation, Qi et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109723

Farming system change under different climate scenarios and its impact on food security: an analytical framework to inform adaptation policy in developing countries, Abbas et al., Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11027-023-10082-5

Precarious prospects? Exploring climate resilience of agricultural commercialization pathways in Tanzania and Zimbabwe, Newsham et al., Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2023.2229775

Understanding vulnerability and building resilience in small-scale fisheries: the case of Davao Gulf, Philippines, Macusi et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2023.2261889

Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

A CMIP6 multi-model ensemble-based analysis of potential climate change impacts on irrigation water demand and supply using SWAT and CROPWAT models: a case study of Akmese Dam, Turkey, Yalcin, Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-023-04657-0

Attribution of the Record-Breaking Extreme Precipitation Events in July 2021 Over Central and Eastern China to Anthropogenic Climate Change, Wang et al., Earth’s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef003613

Derivation of nonstationary rainfall intensity-duration-frequency curves considering the impacts of climate change and urbanization, Yan et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2023.101701

MOPREDAS&century database and precipitation trends in mainland Spain, 1916–2020, Gonzalez?Hidalgo et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.8060

Projected Changes in Mountain Precipitation Under CO2-Induced Warmer Climate, Kad et al., Earth’s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef003886

Trivariate risk analysis of meteorological drought in Iran under climate change scenarios, Bazrafshan et al., Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics 10.1007/s00703-023-00988-9

Will the ‘evapotranspiration paradox’ phenomenon exist across China in the future?, Li et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8256

Climate change economics

Achieving China?s carbon neutrality goal by economic growth rate adjustment and low-carbon energy structure, Xu et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113817

Determining the willingness to link climate and trade policy, Lumkowsky et al., Climatic Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-023-03609-x

Nonlinear El Niño impacts on the global economy under climate change, Liu et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-41551-9

Climate change and the circular economy Climate change mitigation public policy research

Assessing energy justice in climate change policies: an empirical examination of China’s energy transition, Zhong et al., Climate Policy Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2023.2261894

Coherent at face value: Integration of forest carbon targets in Finnish policy strategies, Pitzén et al., Ambio Open Access pdf 10.1007/s13280-023-01923-3

Did it increase energy consumption? A difference-in-differences evaluation of a rural electrification policy in Gujarat, India using night-time lights data, Chindarkar & Goyal, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113814

Ecovoltaic principles for a more sustainable, ecologically informed solar energy future, Sturchio & Knapp, Nature Ecology & Evolution 10.1038/s41559-023-02174-x

Evaluating long-term low emission development strategies and implications for the remaining global carbon budget, Cruanyes et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2023.2260785

Little evidence of management change in California’s forest offset program, Stapp et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-00984-2

Location is a major barrier for transferring US fossil fuel employment to green jobs, Lim et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-41133-9

Memory in energy transitions: individual agency through historical narratives in the energy transition to gas and electricity in the Dutch household, ten Berge, Sustainability Science Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11625-023-01412-2

Precarious prospects? Exploring climate resilience of agricultural commercialization pathways in Tanzania and Zimbabwe, Newsham et al., Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2023.2229775

Revisiting energy justice: Is renewable energy technology innovation a tool for realizing a just energy system?, Dong et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113820

The anchoring effect of climate change acts: a policy streams analysis of Ireland’s climate act reform, Bailey et al., Climate Policy Open Access pdf 10.1080/14693062.2023.2261886

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Assessing causes and implications of climate-induced migration in Kenya and Ethiopia, Leal Filho et al., Environmental Science & Policy 10.1016/j.envsci.2023.103577

Climate Change and Adaptation: Exploring Drivers of Community and Gender-Disaggregated Social Vulnerability, Memon et al., Weather, Climate, and Society 10.1175/wcas-d-21-0113.1

Farming system change under different climate scenarios and its impact on food security: an analytical framework to inform adaptation policy in developing countries, Abbas et al., Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11027-023-10082-5

Getting private investment in adaptation to work: Effective adaptation, value, and cash flows, , Journal of Development and Social Sciences Open Access pdf 10.47205/jdss.2021(2-iv)74

Perceptions of urban green infrastructures for climate change adaptation in Lausanne, Switzerland: unveiling the role of biodiversity and planting composition, Doussard & Delabarre, Climatic Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-023-03605-1

Resilience beyond insurance: coordination in crisis governance, Platzer & Knodt, Environment Systems and Decisions Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10669-023-09938-7

Sea Level Rise Learning Scenarios for Adaptive Decision-Making Based on IPCC AR6, Völz & Hinkel, Earth’s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef003662

What is slowing progress on climate change adaptation? Evaluating barriers to planning for sea level rise in Florida, Milordis et al., Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 10.1007/s11027-023-10083-4

Climate change impacts on human health

Sources of air pollution health impacts and co-benefits of carbon neutrality in Santiago, Chile, Nawaz et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2023jd038808

Climate change & geopolitics

Vulnerability-based allocations in loss and damage finance, Robinson et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-023-01809-y

Climate change impacts on human culture

At the intersection of climate justice and reproductive justice, de Onís, Environmental Communication Open Access 10.1080/17524032.2012.690092

Other

Challenging the values of the polluter elite: A global consequentialist response to Evensen and Graham’s (2022) ‘The irreplaceable virtues of in-person conferences’, Whitmarsh & Kreil, Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2022.101881

Robust Weakening of the Gulf Stream During the Past Four Decades Observed in the Florida Straits, Piecuch & Beal Beal, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl105170

The Estimated Climate Impact of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai Eruption Plume, Schoeberl et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl104634

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Ghost forests haunt the East Coast, harbingers of sea-level rise, McDermott, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2314607120

Our Hot Future Has Arrived—Are We Prepared?, Filippelli, GeoHealth Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gh000936

Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

The 9th National Risk Assessment. The Insurance Issue, Alfaro et al., First Street Foundation

The authors highlight the growing issue concerning the cost, affordability, and general insurability of many locations across the country due to the increasing risk of exposure to climate hazards. The authors use the latest version of several models to integrate property-specific building characteristics with damage curves to quantify the likelihood of economic damage and structure loss, for the current year and up to 30 years into the future under a changing climate.

The Issue with Tissue Fifth Edition, Ashley Jordan, Natural Resources Defense Council

The author examines the link between some of the most popular U.S. tissue brands and the ongoing degradation of one of the most climate-critical and ecologically important forests in the world, the boreal forest in Canada.1 The author covers consumer products such as toilet paper, paper towels, and facial tissue. She incorporates the latest scientific information and changes in the tissue market and further underscores the need for urgent action to blunt the powerful companies behind the tissue sector’s biggest brands, like Procter & Gamble, Kimberly-Clark, and Georgia-Pacific. Now, more than ever, it is clear that the impacts of manufacturing single-use tissue products from forest fiber are not only severe but also avoidable. There are sustainable alternatives to turning trees into toilet paper and the refusal of many major U.S. tissue companies to embrace these alternatives is an egregious failure in corporate environmental responsibility, as well as a missed opportunity in a marketplace that increasingly demands forest-friendly and climate-safe products.

Nine in ten have experienced extreme weather and most blame climate change, The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research at the University of Chicago

Nearly nine in ten (87%) of adults have experienced at least one extreme weather event in the past five years, including extreme heat waves, severe winter storms, major drought, hurricanes, wildfires, tornadoes, or major flooding. Three-quarters of the public have experienced an extreme weather event in just the past few months alone. Among those who have experienced extreme weather, three-quarters think climate change has been at least partially responsible. Democrats who have experienced extreme weather are more convinced that climate change (93%) was a cause, compared to just half of Republicans (48%). With 2023 clocking in as the hottest summer on record, 74% of adults report experiencing extreme heat within the past five years, up from 55% in April 2023. Nearly seven in ten adults experienced an extreme heat wave in the past few months alone. Six in ten adults say smoke from wildfires impacted them at least somewhat over the past few months, including 15% who say it affected them a lot.

September 2023 Climate and Health Outlook, Office of Climate Change and Health Equity, US. Health and Human Services

The authors provide information for health professionals and the public on how people’s health may be affected in the coming months by climate events and provide resources to take proactive action. For example, in the U.S. Southwest, counties in Arizona (5), California (11), and Utah (2) are projected to have more than five heat exceedance days in September. Drought is favored to persist and expand across New Mexico into parts of Colorado and Utah. Localized improvement is forecasted for Arizona and small areas within southern Nevada and central Utah. Above normal wildland fire potential is forecast for northern California, while below normal wildland fire potential is forecast for much of southern and central California.

Tracking the Sun. Pricing and Design Trends for Distributed Photovoltaic Systems in the United States, Barbose et al., Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

The authors describe trends among grid-connected, distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) and paired PV+storage systems in the United States. Distributed solar includes residential systems, roof-mounted non-residential systems, and ground-mounted systems up to 5 MW-AC. The information in the report is based on 3.2 million systems installed through year-end 2022, representing more than 80% of systems installed to date.

Grid in Peril, SAFE

The authors detail the significant risks that threaten the U.S. electrical power grid’s ability to provide reliable and resilient electric power. They outline the confluence of current and emerging challenges facing this essential infrastructure as the U.S. transitions to more sustainable and renewable energy sources. Demand is increasing as the United States grows and reindustrializes its economy while rapidly electrifying the vehicle fleet. Incremental transmission capacity is imperative but faces permitting obstacles and regulatory barriers. Traditional resources will remain essential to meet demand but may struggle to remain viable as the grid evolves. External threats including cyber and physical attacks, extreme weather, and generation and transmission deficiencies threaten our grid’s resilience.

Net Zero Roadmap. A Global Pathway to Keep the 1.5 °C Goal in Reach, Fernández et al., International Energy Agency

The authors survey the complex and dynamic global energy landscape and set out an updated pathway to net zero by 2050, taking account of the key developments that have occurred since 2021.

Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions

We know it’s frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as “On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light”  but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article’s relevance and importance. 

• Unpaywall offers a browser extension for Chrome and Firefox that automatically indicates when an article is freely accessible and provides immediate access without further trouble. Unpaywall is also unscammy, works well, is itself offered free to use. The organizers (a legitimate nonprofit) report about a 50% success rate

• The weekly New Research catch is checked against the Unpaywall database with accessible items being flagged. Especially for just-published articles this mechansim may fail. If you’re interested in an article title and it is not listed here as “open access,” be sure to check the link anyway. 

How is New Research assembled?

Most articles appearing here are found via  RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance. 

Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database. 

The objective of New Research isn’t to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers’ impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:

• Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a “yes” to this automatically. 
• Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week’s 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.

A few journals offer public access to “preprint” versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. For some key journals this all the mention we’ll see in RSS feeds, so we include such items in New Research. These are flagged as “preprint.”

The section “Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives” includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of “perspectives,” observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.

Suggestions

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Journals covered

A list of journals we cover may be found here. We welcome pointers to omissions, new journals etc.

Previous edition

The previous edition of Skeptical Science New Research may be found here.