Fact brief – Is there an expert consensus on human-caused global warming?

Posted on 9 November 2024 by Guest Author

Skeptical Science is partnering with Gigafact to produce fact briefs — bite-sized fact checks of trending claims. This fact brief was written by Sue Bin Park from the Gigafact team in collaboration with members from our team. You can submit claims you think need checking via the tipline.

Is there an expert consensus on human-caused global warming?

A number of peer-reviewed studies found nearly all climate scientists agree carbon dioxide from human activities is warming the planet by making it more difficult for heat to escape the atmosphere.

A 2016 summary of consensus studies confirmed 90%-100% of publishing climate experts agree on global warming. Recent 2021 studies suggested 98% and 99% consensus.

Scientific consensus is agreement among the vast majority of specialists on a basic principle. It results from a large, rigorous body of observations and experiments which proposed, debated, and refined an explanation of a specific phenomenon.

Public perception often relies on non-expert perspectives. Scientific consensus however, requires rigorous testing by experts to confirm that hypotheses stand up to scrutiny.

The diversity in perspective and approach of climate scientists shows expertise, not groupthink, produces consensus. From careful, continuous research, excess CO2 from burning fossil fuels is agreed to be the main driver of global warming.

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Sources

Environmental Research Letters Consensus on consensus: a synthesis of consensus estimates on human-caused global warming

Environmental Research Letters Greater than 99% consensus on human caused climate change in the peer-reviewed scientific literature

Environmental Research Letters Consensus revisited: quantifying scientific agreement on climate change and climate expertise among Earth scientists 10 years later

NASA Scientific Consensus

About fact briefs published on Gigafact

Fact briefs are short, credibly sourced summaries that offer “yes/no” answers in response to claims found online. They rely on publicly available, often primary source data and documents. Fact briefs are created by contributors to Gigafact — a nonprofit project looking to expand participation in fact-checking and protect the democratic process. See all of our published fact briefs here.