Breeding New Hope for the Future of Coffee in a Climate-Changing World

Coffee is more than just a morning ritual for millions worldwide; it’s a
global industry deeply intertwined with multiple economies, cultures and
complicated geopolitical landscapes — and one that’s being reshaped by the dual
challenges of escalating demand and climate change.

As the climate warms, the ideal conditions for growing Arabica coffee — the
dominant varietal, prized for its nuanced flavors and aromas — are shrinking
rapidly. Projections indicate that by 2050, suitable land for Arabica
cultivation could be halved — threatening
supply amidst growing demand. In response, some innovators are working to save
the popular beverage by fundamentally changing how “coffee” is
produced;
but industry giants and pre-competitive collaborations are determined to stay
the course — accelerating efforts to develop climate-resilient coffee varieties
to safeguard future production.

Bridging the investment gap

Coffee is one of the most under-invested crops in the world. The vast majority
of coffee growers are smallholder farmers, who contribute 60
percent
of global coffee production volume. Most smallholders operate in lower-income
countries that lack the resources to invest in crop development. Many
coffee-producing nations face the choice of allocating funds toward coffee
varietal development or investing in critical infrastructure and services for
citizens. As a result, today’s coffee growers are essentially recycling the same
genetic material cultivated for the past 100 years.

“Coffee has only had a few hundred years to adapt from a forest environment to
full-sun production as we see in Honduras or Brazil,” Vern
Long, CEO of World
Coffee Research (WCR) told Sustainable
Brands® (SB). “The challenge is, there’s so little innovation. It’s not
that coffee can’t handle climate change. It most definitely can — it has handled
the transition from Ethiopian forests to moving all around the world. That to me
sounds like a pretty resilient plant.”

WCR works to bridge the investment gap by providing scientific solutions
securing a diverse and sustainable supply of quality coffee for growers of every
size. Its approach involves a blend of traditional and modern techniques,
combining low-tech breeding methods with advanced data science to unlock the
largely untapped genetic potential of coffee plants.

A 2023 WCR
assessment
estimates that $452 million in annual investment is needed to keep pace with
growing coffee demand. This figure starkly contrasts with the investment in
other crops: For example, over 1,300 maize varieties were
released
globally between 1995 and 2015, while fewer than 30 new coffee varieties emerged
in the same period. Additionally, since the 1960s, breeders have
registered 5,314 distinct apple varieties; but only
119 coffee varieties are
registered.

“In effect, there is 43x more innovation in apple breeding than in coffee —
despite coffee generating $200B in value globally and employing many times more
people in its agricultural sector,” said Hanna
Neuschwander, WCR’s Director of
Strategy and Communications. “The size of the gap is disproportionate to the
value of coffee, and farming without greater innovation is unsustainable.”

The collaborative nature of WCR’s efforts ensures that advancements in coffee
breeding are accessible to farmers globally. This holistic approach supports
national governments in integrating modern breeding tools and creates a more
equitable distribution of resources and knowledge.

For instance, WCR’s Innovea Global Arabica Breeding
Network is a
consortium — funded by over 200 coffee companies worldwide that comprise
WCR’s membership — that tests coffee varieties in diverse agroecological environments
across 10 countries. This
multi-environment testing exposes the plants to various environmental pressures,
allowing researchers to identify and release the most resilient varieties suited
to different regions. This global network is co-financed by coffee roasters and
national partners, ensuring that the best-performing varieties are developed and
disseminated effectively. WCR also helps members implement regenerative
agriculture
techniques to increase both resilience and crop yields.

“It’s in everyone’s interest along the supply chain to optimize access and to
maximize opportunities for farmers to access technology they need to
successfully export coffee and start a more virtuous cycle, as opposed to the
vicious cycle we’re currently in,” Long explained.

Industry players bridging the R&D gap

WCR partner Nestlé’s new Institute of Agricultural
Sciences
(NIAS) is also helping drive this innovation by developing high-yielding
coffee varieties with superior climate and disease resistance. These new
varieties are designed to thrive under varying environmental conditions while
requiring lower inputs of water and nutrients, thus reducing their carbon
footprint.

One notable product of NIAS’s research is the development of Star
4,
a high-yielding Arabica variety known for its large bean size and resistance to
coffee leaf rust — a major disease threatening coffee crops globally. Star
4’s enhanced productivity translates to more coffee per plant with fewer
resources, reducing greenhouse gas emissions associated with coffee production.
Currently, this variety is registered for cultivation in Brazil.

Meanwhile, a 240-ha coffee farm in Costa Rica serves as WCR member
Starbucks’s global research, development and innovation hub. Similar to the
NIAS, the Starbucks R&D team at Hacienda
Alsacia has developed six
climate-change resistant coffee
varietals
resistant to coffee leaf rust and other coffee diseases with an emphasis on
increased quality productivity. Starbucks offers these varietals for free to
farmers around the world through an open-source agronomy initiative — regardless
of whether they sell to Starbucks or not. Over the last five years, Starbucks
has distributed more than 3 million seeds for these resilient varietals to
growers in China, Costa Rica, Guatemala, Honduras, Indonesia,
Mexico, Nicaragua and Peru.

In addition, Starbucks offers financing opportunities to help farmers access the
capital and resources they need to adapt and thrive in a changing climate.

“Coffee farmers and farming communities are already feeling the impacts of
climate change and our warming planet,” a Starbucks spokesperson told SB via
email. “Starbucks’ future is directly linked to the livelihoods of farmers,
their families and their communities; so, we take seriously our responsibility
to care for the people who are part of the coffee journey.”

The combined efforts of organizations such as Nestlé, Starbucks and WCR aim to
pave the way for a more resilient and sustainable coffee industry. As a tree
crop, coffee trials tend to span decades — which means that most of the
varieties being developed by WCR and its partners will reach market penetration
in the 2030s. In the next three to six years, WCR will release about a hundred
new varieties — with the expectation that they will reach market absorption in
the 2030s.

“There’s a lot of doom and gloom about coffee and climate change,” Neuschwander
said. “But humans will go to great lengths to ensure that coffee can be
resilient in the face of climate change. As a science organization, we are
actually very optimistic about the possibilities — and partly because coffee
breeding is so far behind, we just get to leapfrog over all the years of
disinvestment and make a lot of progress very quickly.”

Published Sep 9, 2024 8am EDT / 5am PDT / 1pm BST / 2pm CEST

Christian Yonkers

Christian is a writer, photographer, filmmaker, and outdoor junkie obsessed with the intersectionality between people and planet. He partners with brands and organizations with social and environmental impact at their core, assisting them in telling stories that change the world.

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