Fact brief – Are polar bears endangered?

Posted on 27 July 2024 by John Mason

Skeptical Science is partnering with Gigafact to produce fact briefs — bite-sized fact checks of trending claims. This fact brief was updated by John Mason in collaboration with members from the Gigafact team. The initial version was published in 2021 and written by Anne-Marie Blackburn. You can submit claims you think need checking via the tipline.

Are polar bears endangered?

Most polar bear populations could become extinct by 2100 if our greenhouse gas emissions continue.

Polar bears are classed as vulnerable by the International Union for Conservation of Nature. They hunt seals, their main food source, from the Arctic sea-ice. Human-caused global warming has led to a rapid loss of that ice, making it harder for polar bears to catch enough prey to survive.

There are 19 subpopulations of polar bears. According to the World Wildlife Fund in 2021, 3 were in decline, 4 were stable, 2 were increasing, and 10 were data-deficient.

In 1973, the international community agreed to restrict polar bear hunting, which helps explain why the population is estimated to be higher today than it was in the 1970s. However, that does not change their long-term endangerment if the sea ice they require to hunt is allowed to continue to melt.

Go to full rebuttal on Skeptical Science or to the fact brief on Gigafact

This fact brief is responsive to conversations such as this one.

Sources

Nature Climate Change: Fasting season length sets temporal limits for global polar bear persistence

International Union for Conservation of Nature: New assessment highlights climate change as most serious threat to polar bear survival

University of Washington: Rapid decline of Arctic sea ice a combination of climate change and natural variability

NASA: Arctic Sea Ice Minimum

BBC Earth: Hungry Polar Bear Ambushes Seal

UQx DENIAL101x: Polar bears

World Wildlife Fund: Polar bear status and population

Polar Bears International: Are polar bear populations increasing: in fact booming?

About fact briefs published on Gigafact

Fact briefs are short, credibly sourced summaries that offer “yes/no” answers in response to claims found online. They rely on publicly available, often primary source data and documents. Fact briefs are created by contributors to Gigafact — a nonprofit project looking to expand participation in fact-checking and protect the democratic process. See all of our published fact briefs here.