Skeptical Science New Research for Week #15 2024

Socio-economic constraints to low-carbon transitions: insights from Kazakhstan’s Emissions Trading Scheme, Howie & Akmetov, Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2024.2337178

Struggles over solar in the United States: Oppositional coalitions and the limits of territorial resentment, Jacroux & Freshour, Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103532

Towards just transition: Tackling inequity and structural causes of vulnerability in key environment, health and climate related policies in Finland, Tikkakoski et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103736

Turning a groundswell of climate action into ground rules for net zero, Hale et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-024-01967-7

Understanding the science-policy interface in urban climate governance from a co-production perspective: Insights from the cases of Hamburg and São Paulo, Schmidt et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103750

Untangling the forces behind carbon emissions in China’s industrial sector – A pre and post 12th energy climate plan analysis, Yasmeen et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.101895

“The ketchup effect”: Challenges in reconciling growth and justice in Northern Sweden’s green transition, Garbis et al., Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103537

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Climate change resilience strategies for safeguarding sustainable tourism in Zimbabwe, Chiwaridzo & Dzingirai, Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-024-04885-y

Evaluating policy coherence and integration for adaptation: the case of EU policies and Arctic cross-border climate change impacts, Kivimaa et al., Climate Policy Open Access pdf 10.1080/14693062.2024.2337168

Harnessing climate services to support community resilience planning: lessons learned from a community-engaged approach to assessing NOAA’s National Water Model, Raub et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2024.1291165

Integrating science and the arts to deglobalise climate change adaptation, Olazabal et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-47400-7

Meta-analysis indicates better climate adaptation and mitigation performance of hybrid engineering-natural coastal defence measures, Huynh et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-46970-w

Plan integration for urban extreme heat: Evaluating the impacts of plans at multiple scales in Tokyo, Japan, Yu et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.101888

Quantifying climate risks to infrastructure systems: A comparative review of developments across infrastructure sectors, Verschuur et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000331

Towards enhanced climate change adaptation: using traditional ecological knowledge to understand the environmental effects of urban growth in Abuja, Nigeria, Inkani et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-024-04819-8

Climate change impacts on human health

Climate change dominates the increasing exposure of global population to compound heatwave and humidity extremes in the future, Wei et al., Climate Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-024-07199-x

Climate change exacerbates the compounding of heat stress and flooding in the mid-latitudes, Treppiedi et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8453

How do energy efficiency measures affect the risk of summertime overheating and cold discomfort? Evidence from English homes, Lomas et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114108

Climate change impacts on human culture

Capacity of the U.S. federal system for cultural heritage to meet challenges of climate change, Rockman, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 10.1073/pnas.2317158121

Not a dream wedding: the hidden nexus between gender discrimination, climate change and child marriage, Pastén et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-024-04813-0

Other

Persistent warming and anomalous biogeochemical signatures observed in the Northern Tropical Pacific Ocean during 2013–2020, Tian & Zhang, Climate Dynamics 10.1007/s00382-024-07184-4

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Chronicling the climate of 2023, , Nature Reviews Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43017-024-00553-x

Climate change and biodiversity loss: new territories for financial authorities, Chenet, Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability Open Access 10.1016/j.cosust.2024.101449

Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

A Decade of Growth in Solar and Wind Power: Trends Across the U.S, Climate Central

America’s capacity to generate carbon-free electricity grew during 2023 — part of a decade-long growth trend for renewable energy. Solar and wind account for more of our nation’s energy mix than ever before. The authors analyzed historical data on solar and wind energy over 10 years, from 2014 to 2023. Their analysis shows that the amount of electricity produced from solar and wind power increased across the U.S. The U.S. generated 238,121 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of electricity from solar in 2023 — more than eight times the amount generated a decade earlier in 2014. Wind power has more than doubled this decade, with 425,325 GWh coming from wind installations across the country in 2023. Together, these two renewable energy sources generated enough electricity in 2023 to power the equivalent of more than 61 million average American homes. The most solar power generation came from California (68,816 GWh) and Texas (31,739 GWh) in 2023. Texas also led the country in power generated from wind (119,836 GWh).

Renewables 2024 Global Status Report, Couzin et al., REN21

In 2023, global additions to renewable power capacity increased by an estimated 36% to reach 473 GW, a new record for the 22nd consecutive year. At the 2023 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Dubai, 130 countries pledged to triple renewable energy capacity and double the annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030. As countries reshaped trade and industrial policies in 2023, the United States launched more than 250 clean energy manufacturing projects following the adoption of the Inflation Reduction Act, and the European Union proposed the Net-Zero Industry Act and launched the first phase of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. Employment in the renewables sector increased by 8% in 2022 to reach 13.7 million jobs. The number of people lacking electricity access globally fell from 756 million in 2022 to 745 million in 2023.

Corporate Climate Risk: Measurements and Responses, Li et al., Multiple

The authors conduct a textual analysis of earnings call transcripts to quantify climate risk exposure at the firm level. We construct dictionaries that measure physical and transition climate risks separately and identify firms that proactively respond to climate risks. The validation analysis shows that the measures capture firm-level variations in respective climate risk exposure. Firms facing high transition risk, especially those that do not proactively respond, have been valued at a discount in recent years as aggregate investor attention to climate-related issues has been increasing. The authors document differences in how firms respond through investment, green innovation, and employment when facing high climate risk exposure.

Community-Driven Relocation. Recommendations for the U.S. Gulf Coast Region and Beyond, Barnes et al., National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine

As disaster recovery costs escalate, state and local governments cannot keep up, while federal recovery programs fall short of state requests for assistance. As households struggle to recover from one storm before the next one hits, families experience chronic stress with few opportunities for respite. Stress exacerbates other preexisting health conditions even as exposure to flooding and extreme heat aggravate those same conditions. These circumstances present an untenable long-term cycle of cumulative, compounding, and cascading risks, markedly increasing vulnerability. Addressing these growing challenges requires new ways of planning in anticipation of disasters and their growing potential for displacement. While disaster displacement is not a new phenomenon, the rapid escalation of climate-related disasters in the Gulf increases the urgency to develop pre-disaster policies to mitigate displacement and decrease suffering.

More Chilling Than Ever. Tackling Europe’s ongoing illegal trade in HFC climate super pollutants, Environemntal Investigation Agency

Significant levels of trafficking persist for hydrofluorocarbon (HFC), despite the worsening climate emergency. Commonly used in refrigeration and air-conditioning, HFCs are being phased out under the European Union (EU) F-gas Regulation. Driven by high profits and weak law enforcement, organized criminals are closely associated with this illicit trade. Traders are routing illegal HFC, sourced primarily in Türkiye and China, from Europe’s edge – Bulgaria – across the continent to the likes of Greece, Germany, France, Italy, Portugal and Spain. Traders are becoming more sophisticated and adapting their tactics to elude detection, for example by avoiding banned disposable cylinders and disguising HFCs as less regulated hydrofluoroolefin (HFO) refrigerant alternatives.

The Carbon Majors Database, InfluenceMap

The Carbon Majors database traces 1,421 GtCO2e of cumulative historical emissions from 1854 through 2022 to 122 industrial producers, the CO2 portion of which is equivalent to 72% of global fossil fuel and cement CO2 emissions since 1751. Over 70% of these global CO2 emissions historically can be attributed to just 78 corporate and state producing entities. Carbon Majors is a database of historic production data from 122 of the world’s largest oil, gas, coal, and cement producers. These data are used to quantify the direct production-linked operational emissions and emissions from the combustion of marketed products that can be attributed to these entities. The research shows that there are no leading regions when it comes to emissions reductions. Asia and the Middle East stand out as the regions associated with the highest emissions increases, alongside companies from Africa, Europe, and South America. North America is the only region to buck this trend, with a slim majority of companies linked to decreasing emissions.

Rebutting 33 False Claims About Solar, Wind and Electric Vehicles, Eisenson et. al., Sabin Center for Climate Change Law, Columbia University

Getting the U.S. energy system onto an environmentally sustainable track will require rapid and widespread development of wind, solar, and other renewable energy facilities; corresponding storage, transmission, and distribution infrastructure; and timely industry-specific transitions, such as battery electric vehicles replacing their combustion-engine counterparts. Broad public support exists for transformative climate policies, with a June 2023 Pew Research Center survey finding that 67% of U.S. adults prioritize developing renewable energy sources over increased fossil fuel production. However, “misinformation” and coordinated “disinformation” have at times undermined support for renewable energy projects and electric vehicles. The authors address some of the more prevalent and persistent distortions about solar energy, wind energy, and electric vehicles, with the aim of promoting a more informed discussion.

Puerto Rico Grid Resilience and Transitions to 100% Renewable Energy Study (PR100), Baggu et al., National Renewable Energy Laboratory

The authors present a comprehensive analysis based on extensive stakeholder input of possible pathways for Puerto Rico to achieve its goal of 100% renewable energy by 2050. The authors defined and modeled multiple pathways for decision makers to consider for Puerto Rico to achieve its energy goals, driven by community priorities and perspectives.

2035 and Beyond. Reconductoring With Advanced Conductors Can Accelerate the Rapid Transmission Expansion Required for a Clean Grid, Chojkiewicz et al., Goldman School of Public Policy, University of California, Berkeley and GridLab

The authors combines the latest energy cost data with state-of-the-art grid modeling to quantify three key elements: the cost of reconductoring with advanced conductors; the associated gains in transmission capacity; and the associated contribution to meeting transmission needs by 2035.

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How is New Research assembled?

Most articles appearing here are found via  RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance. 

Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database. 

The objective of New Research isn’t to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers’ impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:

• Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a “yes” to this automatically. 
• Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week’s 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.

A few journals offer public access to “preprint” versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. For some key journals this all the mention we’ll see in RSS feeds, so we include such items in New Research. These are flagged as “preprint.”

The section “Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives” includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of “perspectives,” observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.

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