Skeptical Science New Research for Week #13 2024
29 min read
Skeptical Science New Research for Week #13 2024
Posted on 28 March 2024 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open access notables
A survey of interventions to actively conserve the frozen North, van Wijngaarden et al., Climatic Change:
The frozen elements of the high North are thawing as the region warms much faster than the global mean. The dangers of sea level rise due to melting glacier ice, increased concentrations of greenhouse gases from thawing permafrost, and alterations in the key high latitude physical systems spurred many authors, and more recently international agencies and supra-state actors, to investigate “emergency measures” that might help conserve the frozen North. However, the efficacy and feasibility of many of these ideas remains highly uncertain, and some might come with significant risks, or could be even outright dangerous to the ecosystems and people of the North. To date, no review has evaluated all suggested schemes. The objectives of this first phase literature survey (which can be found in a separate compendium (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10602506), are to consider all proposed interventions in a common evaluation space, and identify knowledge gaps in active conservation proposals. We found 61 interventions with a high latitude focus, across atmosphere, land, oceans, ice and industry domains. We grade them on a simple three-point evaluation system across 12 different categories.
Accounting for albedo change to identify climate-positive tree cover restoration, Hasler et al., Nature Communications:
Restoring tree cover changes albedo, which is the fraction of sunlight reflected from the Earth’s surface. In most locations, these changes in albedo offset or even negate the carbon removal benefits with the latter leading to global warming. Previous efforts to quantify the global climate mitigation benefit of restoring tree cover have not accounted robustly for albedo given a lack of spatially explicit data. Here we produce maps that show that carbon-only estimates may be up to 81% too high. While dryland and boreal settings have especially severe albedo offsets, it is possible to find places that provide net-positive climate mitigation benefits in all biomes. We further find that on-the-ground projects are concentrated in these more climate-positive locations, but that the majority still face at least a 20% albedo offset. Thus, strategically deploying restoration of tree cover for maximum climate benefit requires accounting for albedo change and we provide the tools to do so.
Powering aircraft with 100 % sustainable aviation fuel reduces ice crystals in contrails, Märkl et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics:
Powering aircraft by sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) is a pathway to reduce the climate impact of aviation by lowering aviation lifecycle CO2 emissions and by reducing ice crystal numbers and radiative forcing from contrails. While the effect of SAF blends on contrails has been measured previously, here we present novel measurements on particle emission and contrails from 100 % SAF combustion. During the ECLIF3 (Emission and CLimate Impact of alternative Fuels) campaign, a collaboration between the Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Airbus, Rolls-Royce, and Neste, the DLR Falcon 20 research aircraft performed in situ measurements following an Airbus A350-941 source aircraft powered by Rolls-Royce Trent XWB-84 engines in 1 to 2 min old contrails at cruise altitudes. Apparent ice emission indices of 100 % HEFA-SPK (hydro-processed esters and fatty acids–synthetic paraffinic kerosene) were measured and compared to Jet A-1 fuel contrails at similar engine and ambient ice-supersaturated conditions within a single flight. A 56 % reduction in ice particle numbers per mass of burned fuel was measured for 100 % HEFA-SPK compared to Jet A-1 under engine cruise conditions.
Sustainable Flying? The Effects of Greenwashed Claims in Airline Advertising on Perceived Greenwashing, Brand Outcomes, and Attitudes Toward Flying, Neureiter et al., Environmental Communication:
To respond to consumers’ rising concerns about environmental topics, airlines increasingly use green advertising. However, due to the environmental impact of flying, many green advertisements by airlines can be considered as “greenwashing” practices. In an experimental study with a quota-based sample (N = 329), we investigated the effects of two types of greenwashed advertisements for airlines: concrete compensation and abstract compensation (compared to a control condition). Following the Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM), we also explored the moderating role of environmental knowledge in the ability of consumers to perceive greenwashing in airline advertising. Results indicated that concrete compensation claims did not increase greenwashing perceptions compared to the control condition. However, abstract compensation claims did, which, via perceived greenwashing, were negatively associated with brand outcomes and assessments of flying. Environmental knowledge did not moderate these effects. Implications for research on greenwashing, as well as practical conclusions for environmental communication, are discussed.
Major Role of Marine Heatwave and Anthropogenic Climate Change on a Giant Hail Event in Spain, Martín et al., Geophysical Research Letters:
A severe hailstorm that occurred in Spain on 30 August 2022, caused material and human damage, including one fatality due to giant hailstones up to 12 cm in diameter. By applying a pseudo-global warming approach, here we evaluate how a simultaneous marine heatwave (and anthropogenic climate change) affected a unique environment conductive to such giant hailstones. The main results show that the supercell development was influenced by an unprecedented amount of convective available energy, with significant contributions from thermodynamic factors.
Policies, projections, and the social cost of carbon: Results from the DICE-2023 model, Barrage & Nordhaus Nordhaus Nordhaus, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences:
The present study examines the assumptions, modeling structure, and results of DICE-2023, the revised Dynamic Integrated Model of Climate and the Economy (DICE), updated to 2023. The revision contains major changes in the treatment of risk, the carbon and climate modules, the treatment of nonindustrial greenhouse gases, discount rates, as well as updates on all the major components. Noteworthy changes are a significant reduction in the target for the optimal (cost-beneficial) temperature path, a lower cost of reaching the 2 °C target, an analysis of the impact of the Paris Accord, and a major increase in the estimated social cost of carbon.
From this week’s government/NGO section:
Pathways to Commercial Liftoff: Next-Generation Geothermal Power, Blankenship et al., US Department of Energy
Geothermal power technology has shown compelling advances that can enable it to become a key contributor to secure, domestic, decarbonized power generation for the U.S. as a source of clean firm power. Economywide decarbonization modeling suggests that the U.S. will need an additional 700-900 GW of clean firm capacity to build a decarbonized grid system capable of supporting increased demand. Next-generation geothermal has a unique value proposition, including minimal workforce and supply chain risk, low land use, and flexible generating capability. Next-generation technologies can expand geothermal power by more than a factor of 20, providing 90 GW or more of clean firm power to the grid by 2050 across the U.S.
Over Half of Homeowners Fear Effects of Climate Change, Including Impact on Home Insurance Costs, Maggie Davis and Dan Shepard, Lending Tree:
Most homeowners fear climate change effects — and the youngest are most concerned. Over half (51%) of homeowners are worried climate change-related hazards will affect their homes, with that figure rising to 63% among millennial homeowners. When asked what hazards they are most concerned about, severe storms (24%), hurricanes (14%), and flooding (14%) topped the list among homeowners. Some are planning to move away from places at high risk of climate change hazards, and many believe those risks should be disclosed. A quarter (25%) of homeowners worry climate change will impact their property values in the next 10 years. Among those in at-risk locations, 34% are considering moving, while 13% have already relocated. Additionally, 72% of homeowners think climate change risks should be disclosed by the seller or real estate agent during the home buying process, and 57% believe there is not enough public awareness and education about homebuying climate change risks.
157 articles in 66 journals by 907 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
Enhanced spring warming of the Tibetan Plateau amplifies summer heat stress in Eastern Europe, Yang et al., Climate Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-024-07197-z
Multistability and intermediate tipping of the Atlantic Ocean circulation, Lohmann et al., Science Advances Open Access pdf 10.1126/sciadv.adi4253
Rising geopotential height under global warming, He et al., Climate Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-024-07175-5
Sea Ice Loss, Water Vapor Increases, and Their Interactions with Atmospheric Energy Transport in Driving Seasonal Polar Amplification, Chung & Feldl Feldl, Journal of Climate Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0219.1
The role of atmospheric rivers and associated circulation patterns in the Arctic warming in boreal winter, Gong et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8444
Two Ubiquitous Radiative States Observed across the High Latitudes, Bertossa & L’Ecuyer, Journal of Climate Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0553.1
Observations of climate change, effects
Major Role of Marine Heatwave and Anthropogenic Climate Change on a Giant Hail Event in Spain, Martín et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl107632
Observed Energetic Adjustment of the Arctic and Antarctic in a Warming World, Prince & L’Ecuyer, Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0294.1
Ocean Heat Content Increase of the Maritime Continent Since the 1990s, Jin et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2023gl107526
Quantifying Anthropogenic Influences on Global Wave Height Trend During 1961–2020 With Focus on Polar Ocean, Patra et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl106544
Spatiotemporal variations of extreme weather events and climate drivers in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area and its surrounding regions from 1960 to 2020, Ren et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107379
Summer heatwaves in China during 1961–2021: The impact of humidity, Cheng et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107366
The seasonal characteristics of English Channel storminess have changed since the 19th Century, Cornes & Jones, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01319-5
Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects
LIME: Lunar Irradiance Model of ESA, a new tool for absolute radiometric calibration using the Moon, Toledano et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-24-3649-2024
Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects
Assessment of model projections of climate-change induced extreme storms on the south-east coast of Australia, Zhu et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.8446
Climate evolution in the Mediterranean Sea from an ocean circulation model, Jabnoun & Harzallah, Climate Dynamics 10.1007/s00382-024-07152-y
Do CMIP6 models capture the observed anomalous asymmetric Hadley circulation during historical El Niño decaying stage, Ji et al., Climate Dynamics 10.1007/s00382-024-07149-7
Future projections of compound temperature and precipitation extremes and corresponding population exposure over global land, Yang & Zhao, Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104427
Global future potential evapotranspiration signal using Penman-Monteith and Hargreaves-Samani method by latitudes based on CMIP6, Song et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107367
Human influence on duration of extreme temperature events in Asia’s hotspot regions, Wang et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2024.03.005
Intercomparison of tropical Indian Ocean circulation in ocean reanalysis and evaluation in CMIP6 climate models, Bhanu Deepika et al., Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2024.101456
Links of atmospheric circulation to cold days in simulations of EURO-CORDEX climate models for central Europe, Plavcová et al., Climate Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-024-07156-8
Prediction of slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in coupled model simulations, Yamazaki et al., Climate Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-024-07159-5
Projected change in precipitation and temperature over undivided Sudan and its major cities, Mohamed et al., Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics 10.1007/s00703-024-01017-z
Projected changes in daily precipitation, temperature and wet-bulb temperature across Arizona using statistically downscaled CMIP6 climate models, Kim & Villarini, International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.8436
Reversal of Projected European Summer Precipitation Decline in a Stabilizing Climate, Dittus et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl107448
Trends in the ocean mixed-layer depth in the western North Pacific tropical cyclone basin, Wu et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8437
Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection
Characterizing Spatial Structure in Climate Model Ensembles, Chandler et al., Journal of Climate Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0089.1
Dynamical Constraint on Precipitation Biases Over the Indo-Pacific Region During Boreal Summer in AMIP6 Models, Zhang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl107181
Impact of Parameterized Convection on the Storm Track and Near-Surface Jet Response to Global Warming: Implications for Mechanisms of the Future Poleward Shift, Garfinkel et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0105.1
Interactions between atmospheric composition and climate change – progress in understanding and future opportunities from AerChemMIP, PDRMIP, and RFMIP, Fiedler et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-2387-2024
Modes of Variability in E3SM and CESM Large Ensembles, Fasullo et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0454.1
Priorities, opportunities, and challenges for integrating microorganisms into Earth system models for climate change prediction, Lennon et al., mBio Open Access 10.1128/mbio.00455-24
Three Decades of Wetland Methane Surface Flux Modeling by Earth System Models-Advances, Applications, and Challenges, Forbrich et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jg007915
Tropical cyclones in global high-resolution simulations using the IPSL model, Bourdin et al., Climate Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-024-07138-w
Cryosphere & climate change
A survey of interventions to actively conserve the frozen North, van Wijngaarden et al., Climatic Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-024-03705-6
Frequency and size change of ice–snow avalanches in the Central Himalaya: a case from the Annapurna II glacier, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2024.03.006
Modeling Ocean Circulation and Ice Shelf Melt in the Bellingshausen Sea, Hyogo et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 10.1029/2022jc019275
The foundations of the Patagonian icefields, Fürst et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-01193-7
Sea level & climate change
Dynamically downscaled coastal flooding in Brazil’s Guanabara Bay under a future climate change scenario, Toste et al., Natural Hazards 10.1007/s11069-024-06556-7
Holocene Sea-level impacts on Venice Lagoon’s coastal wetlands, Kaniewski et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104426
Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry
Enhancing spatiotemporal paleoclimate reconstructions of hydroclimate across the Mediterranean over the last millennium, Anchukaitis et al., Climate Dynamics 10.1007/s00382-024-07166-6
Extreme springs in Switzerland since 1763 in climate and phenological indices, Imfeld et al., Climate of the Past Open Access 10.5194/cp-20-659-2024
Millennial-Scale Carbon Flux Variability in the Subantarctic Pacific During Marine Isotope Stage 3 (57–29 ka), Anderson et al., Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023pa004776
Revising Alpine summer temperatures since 881 CE, Kuhl et al., Climate Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-024-07195-1
Biology & climate change, related geochemistry
A Historical Plankton Index: Zooplankton abundance in the North Sea since 800 CE, Scherer et al., The Holocene Open Access pdf 10.1177/09596836241236332
Arrhythmia in the earth’s pulse: Bird migration timing does not track advancing spring phenology, Kelly & Cimprich, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 10.1073/pnas.2402548121
Climate change disrupts the seasonal coupling of plant and soil microbial nutrient cycling in an alpine ecosystem, Broadbent et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.17245
Climate change reduces long-term population benefits from no-take marine protected areas through selective pressures on species movement, Caughman et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.17240
Clouds and plant ecophysiology: missing links for understanding climate change impacts, Hughes et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access pdf 10.3389/ffgc.2024.1330561
Ecological niche modelling to project past, current and future distributional shift of black ebony tree Diospyros melanoxylon Roxb. in India, Nitin Saraf et al., Nordic Journal of Botany 10.1111/njb.04266
Effects of climate change on Lepidoptera pollen loads and their pollination services in space and time, Balmaki et al., Oecologia 10.1007/s00442-024-05533-y
Heatwave-like events affect drone production and brood-care behaviour in bumblebees, Sepúlveda et al., PeerJ Open Access 10.7717/peerj.17135
Holocene Sea-level impacts on Venice Lagoon’s coastal wetlands, Kaniewski et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104426
Ignoring Plant Physiological Responses to Elevated CO2 Will Overestimate Terrestrial Vertebrate Biodiversity Loss Under Global Climate Change, Sun & Feng, Earth’s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef003800
Increasing radial growth in old-growth high-elevation conifers in Southern California, USA, during the exceptional “hot drought” of 2000–2020, Knapp et al., International Journal of Biometeorology 10.1007/s00484-024-02619-3
Interactive effects of agricultural landscape heterogeneity and weather conditions on breeding density and reproductive success of a diurnal raptor, Kujala et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.11155
Lessons from COP15 on effective scientific engagement in biodiversity policy processes, Carroll et al., Conservation Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/cobi.14192
Linking temperature sensitivity of mangrove communities, populations and individuals across a tropical-temperate transitional zone, Kang et al., Journal of Ecology 10.1111/1365-2745.14296
Microbial Assemblages and Metabolic Activity in Organic-Rich Subterranean Estuaries: Impact of Climate and Land Use Changes, Adyasari et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jg007660
Persistence of fish populations to longer, more intense, and more frequent mass mortality events, Langangen & Durant, Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.17251
Predicting the future of our oceans—Evaluating genomic forecasting approaches in marine species, Layton et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.17236
Projections of climate-driven biogeographical changes of benthic mollusks in the Yellow Sea and east China sea, Xu et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106474
Seed-dispersal mode and habitat connectivity underpin variation in carbon stocking between Brazilian biomes, Gonçalves et al., Journal of Ecology 10.1111/1365-2745.14301
Synergistic response to climate stressors in coral is associated with genotypic variation in baseline expression, Dilworth et al., Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1098/rspb.2023.2447
Temperature has an overriding role compared to photoperiod in regulating the seasonal timing of winter moth egg hatching, van Dis et al., Oecologia Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00442-024-05535-w
The foraging behaviour of consumers leads to more extinctions when temperature increases, , Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-024-01969-5
Treeline displacement may affect lake dissolved organic matter processing at high latitudes and altitudes, Catalán et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-46789-5
Vulnerability of terrestrial vertebrate food webs to anthropogenic threats in Europe, O’Connor et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.17253
GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry
Effects of forest type on carbon storage in the hilly region of Loess Plateau, China, Song et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access pdf 10.3389/ffgc.2024.1349047
Enhanced CO2 uptake of the coastal ocean is dominated by biological carbon fixation, Mathis et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-024-01956-w
Exchangeable manganese regulates carbon storage in the humus layer of the boreal forest, Zhang et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1073/pnas.2318382121
Field Evaluation of an Autonomous, Low-Power Eddy Covariance CO2 Flux System for the Marine Environment, Miller et al., Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 10.1175/jtech-d-23-0076.1
Mechanisms Underpinning the Net Removal Rates of Dissolved Organic Carbon in the Global Ocean, Lennartz et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gb007912
Mechanistic Constraints on the Drivers of Southern Ocean Meridional Iron Distributions Between Tasmania and Antarctica, Traill et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gb007856
Meta-analysis shows the impacts of ecological restoration on greenhouse gas emissions, He et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-46991-5
Modelled forest ecosystem carbon-nitrogen dynamics with integrated mycorrhizal processes under elevated CO2, Thurner et al., Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-2023-109
Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001
Three Decades of Wetland Methane Surface Flux Modeling by Earth System Models-Advances, Applications, and Challenges, Forbrich et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jg007915
Tree stem methane emissions: Global patterns and controlling factors, Wu et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.109976
CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering
Accounting for albedo change to identify climate-positive tree cover restoration, Hasler et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-46577-1
On the importance of time in carbon sequestration in soils and climate change mitigation, Muñoz et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.17229
Reply letter to Munoz et al. ‘on the importance of time in carbon sequestration in soils and climate change mitigation’—Keep carbon sequestration terminologies consistent and functional, Don et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.17230
The sociotechnical dynamics of blue carbon management: Testing typologies of ideographs, innovation, and co-impacts for marine carbon removal, Sovacool et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103730
Unintended consequences of planting native and non-native trees in treeless ecosystems to mitigate climate change, Moyano et al., Journal of Ecology 10.1111/1365-2745.14300
Decarbonization
A Machine Learning Frontier for Predicting LCOE of Photovoltaic System Economics, Bhatti et al., Advanced Energy and Sustainability Research Open Access pdf 10.1002/aesr.202300178
Energy, economic and environmental (3E) analyses of solar photovoltaic and fuel cell based hybrid energy system for a developing country: a worldwide approach to sustainable energy, Fazal et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-024-04677-4
Opportunities, Challenges, and Strategies for Scalable Deposition of Metal Halide Perovskite Solar Cells and Modules, Khorasani et al., Advanced Energy and Sustainability Research Open Access pdf 10.1002/aesr.202300275
Powering aircraft with 100 % sustainable aviation fuel reduces ice crystals in contrails, Märkl et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-24-3813-2024
Ultra-fast green hydrogen production from municipal wastewater by an integrated forward osmosis-alkaline water electrolysis system, Cassol et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-46964-8
Geoengineering climate
A survey of interventions to actively conserve the frozen North, van Wijngaarden et al., Climatic Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-024-03705-6
Global-Scale Evaluation of Coastal Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement in a Fully Coupled Earth System Model, Palmiéri & Yool Yool, Earth’s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef004018
Identifying Climate Impacts From Different Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Strategies in UKESM1, Wells et al., Earth’s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef004358
Solar Geoengineering, Free-Driving and Conflict: An Experimental Investigation, Cherry et al., Environmental and Resource Economics 10.1007/s10640-024-00854-1
Black carbon
Variable aging and storage of dissolved black carbon in the ocean, Coppola et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1073/pnas.2305030121
Aerosols Climate change communications & cognition
Climate change, large risks, small risks, and the value per statistical life, Alberini & Š?asný Scasny , Climatic Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-024-03721-6
Emotional signatures of climate policy support, Myers et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000381
Fuel for revolt – moral arguments as delegitimation practices in Swedish fuel protests, Portinson Hylander et al., Environmental Politics Open Access pdf 10.1080/09644016.2024.2330294
Green or greenwashed? Examining consumers’ ability to identify greenwashing, Wang et al., Companion to the 22nd ACM SIGPLAN conference on Object Open Access 10.1145/1297846.1297913
Imagination, Identification, Intensification: Rhetorical Strategies for Climate Fiction on Television, Riddick, Environmental Communication 10.1080/17524032.2024.2331799
Increasing public support for climate policy proposals: a research agenda on governable acceptability factors, Heyen & Wicki , Climate Policy Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2024.2330390
Neutral and negative effects of policy bundling on support for decarbonization, Marshall et al., Climatic Change 10.1007/s10584-024-03720-7
Sustainable Flying? The Effects of Greenwashed Claims in Airline Advertising on Perceived Greenwashing, Brand Outcomes, and Attitudes Toward Flying, Neureiter et al., Environmental Communication Open Access pdf 10.1080/17524032.2024.2327060
The importance of worldwide linguistic and cultural diversity for climate change resilience, Couée, Ecology Letters Open Access pdf 10.1111/ele.14410
Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change
Agroforestry could be one of the viable options to deal with terminal heat stress in wheat causing yield loss in Indo-Gangetic Plains, Singh et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-024-04731-1
Climate change impacts and adaptations of wine production, van Leeuwen et al., Nature Reviews Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43017-024-00521-5
Climate-smart agricultural practices for enhanced farm productivity, income, resilience, and greenhouse gas mitigation: a comprehensive review, Zheng et al., Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11027-024-10124-6
Climate-Smart Agriculture in South Asia: exploring practices, determinants, and contribution to Sustainable Development Goals, Naveen et al., Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 10.1007/s11027-024-10126-4
Distributional impact of climate-smart villages on access to savings and credit and adoption of improved climate-smart agricultural practices in the Nyando Basin, Kenya, van Asseldonk et al., Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11027-024-10123-7
Effect of different forms of capital on the adoption of multiple climate-smart agriculture strategies by smallholder farmers in Assam, India, Sandilya & Goswami, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 10.1007/s11027-024-10112-w
Farmers resilience to climate variability and perceptions towards adoption of climate smart agricultural practices: evidence from Kersa district, East Hararghe of Ethiopia, Debela et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-024-04723-1
Food matters: Dietary shifts increase the feasibility of 1.5°C pathways in line with the Paris Agreement, Humpenöder et al., Science Advances 10.1126/sciadv.adj3832
Implementation of water energy food-health nexus in a climate constrained world: a review for South Africa, Mutanga et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1307972
Improved irrigation and groundwater management for reducing CO2 emissions: a case study of Indian Punjab, Satpute & Singh, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 10.1007/s11027-024-10117-5
Long-term straw return to a wheat-maize system results in topsoil organic C saturation and increased yields while no stimulating or reducing yield-scaled N2O and NO emissions, Yao et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.109937
Optimizing efficiency and resilience of no-take marine protected areas for fish conservation under climate change along the coastlines of China Seas, Lin et al., Conservation Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/cobi.14174
Positive effects of public breeding on US rice yields under future climate scenarios, Wang et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1073/pnas.2309969121
Projecting a food insecure world: Equity implications of land-based mitigation in IPCC mitigation pathways, Jaiswal et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103724
Spatiotemporal trends and variability of rainfall across agro-ecologies in East Guji Zone, Southeast Ethiopia, Sahilu et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000361
Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change
An underlying factor of increasing early winter precipitation in the Hokuriku region of Japan in recent decades, Takemura et al., Atmospheric Science Letters Open Access pdf 10.1002/asl.1229
Are longer and more intense heatwaves more prone to extreme precipitation?, Sun et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104428
Attribution of streamflow changes during 1961–2019 in the Upper Yangtze and the Upper Yellow River basins, Wen et al., Climatic Change 10.1007/s10584-024-03712-7
Changes in the Climate System Dominate Inter-Annual Variability in Flooding Across the Globe, Kim et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl107480
Compounding effects in flood drivers challenge estimates of extreme river floods, Jiang et al., Science Advances 10.1126/sciadv.adl4005
Describing future UK winter precipitation in terms of changes in local circulation patterns, Sexton et al., Climate Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-024-07165-7
Increases in extreme precipitation expected in Northeast China under continued global warming, Xie et al., Climate Dynamics 10.1007/s00382-024-07144-y
Major Role of Marine Heatwave and Anthropogenic Climate Change on a Giant Hail Event in Spain, Martín et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl107632
Northwestern Mediterranean Heavy Precipitation Events in a Warmer Climate: Robust Versus Uncertain Changes With a Large Convection-Permitting Model Ensemble, Caillaud et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl105143
Systems analysis for energy assets of Iraq influenced by water scarcity, Marcellin et al., Environment Systems and Decisions Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10669-024-09967-w
Climate change economics
Dynamic linkages between carbon emission, energy utilization, financial growth and economic growth: evidence from SAARC, Tan et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-024-04730-2
Financial professionals and climate experts have diverging perspectives on climate action, Gsottbauer et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01331-9
Global warming and heat extremes to enhance inflationary pressures, Kotz et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-01173-x
Greenhouse gas emissions: is there an environmental Kuznets curve in South Asia?, Bhattacharjee & Chowdhury, Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-024-04722-2
Policies, projections, and the social cost of carbon: Results from the DICE-2023 model, Barrage & Nordhaus Nordhaus Nordhaus, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1073/pnas.2312030121
Climate change mitigation public policy research
An integrated fuzzy evaluation of photovoltaic systems adoption barriers in rural island communities of developing economies, Rebucas et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101424
Assessing renewable energy efficiency and policies: A combined analysis of LMDI, super-SBM, and fieldwork in Qinghai, China, Nyangchak, Energy for Sustainable Development Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101420
Climate-smart agricultural practices for enhanced farm productivity, income, resilience, and greenhouse gas mitigation: a comprehensive review, Zheng et al., Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11027-024-10124-6
Comparison of externalities of biogas and photovoltaic solar energy for energy planning, Gonçalves Rigueira Pinheiro Castro et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114070
Increasing public support for climate policy proposals: a research agenda on governable acceptability factors, Heyen & Wicki , Climate Policy Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2024.2330390
Inflation and distributional impacts: Have mitigation policies been successful for vulnerable and energy poor households?, Bardazzi et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114082
Management of stakeholders engaged in port energy transition, Alamoush et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114074
Policy legacies and energy transitions: Greening policies under sectoral reforms in Argentina and Chile, Cunial, Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114059
Renewable energy, forestry, economic growth, and demographic impact on carbon footprint in India: does forestry and renewable energy matter to reduce emission?, Rahman et al., Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences 10.1007/s13412-024-00912-6
The effect of cap-and-trade on sectoral emissions: Evidence from California, Lessmann & Kramer, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114066
The visual effect of wind turbines on property values is small and diminishing in space and time, Guo et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1073/pnas.2309372121
Towards low-carbon steel: System dynamics simulation of policies impact on green hydrogen steelmaking in China and the European Union, Li et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114073
Update of Air Quality Health Index (AQHI) and harmonization of health protection and climate mitigation, Tang et al., Atmospheric Environment 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2024.120473
Upholding household agency in climate mitigation and socio-technical energy transition in Ethiopia, Lee & Liao, Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114067
Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research
Comparison of cooling grey solutions in the sense-city urban demonstrator for adapting cities to heat waves, Ruas et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.101874
Examining the link between marginality and differential climate resilience among disaster-affected communities in southwestern Bangladesh, Jobaer et al., Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2024.2329465
Planning for wastewater infrastructure adaptation under deep uncertainty, Allison et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2024.1355446
Women’s experiences and sustainable adaptation: a socio-ecological study of climate change in the Himalayas, Das, Climatic Change 10.1007/s10584-024-03716-3
Climate change impacts on human health
Conceptualizing heat vulnerability: equity-centered approaches for comprehensive resilience in a changing climate, Macharia & Kiage, Natural Hazards 10.1007/s11069-024-06440-4
Crowded and warmer: Unequal dengue risk at high spatial resolution across a megacity of India, Romeo-Aznar et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000240
Heat vulnerability and spatial equity of cooling center: Planning implications from the Korean case, Lee & Han, Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.101869
The effects of extreme heat on human health in tropical africa, Kunda et al., International Journal of Biometeorology Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00484-024-02650-4
Other
Can intellectual property rights pilots reduce carbon emissions? Evidence from China, Han, Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1336803
Fire suppression makes wildfires more severe and accentuates impacts of climate change and fuel accumulation, Kreider et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-46702-0
Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives
Climate change science is evolving toward adaptation and mitigation solutions, Khojasteh et al., WIREs Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1002/wcc.884
Engineering biology and climate change mitigation: Policy considerations, Symons et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-46865-w
Good fisheries management is good carbon management, Andersen et al., npj Ocean Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1038/s44183-024-00053-x
The possible future of electric road systems in Europe—time to decide and act, Plötz et al., Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1088/2634-4505/ad3576
To be policy-relevant, future climate research must include the noncontiguous United States, Basile et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1073/pnas.2315505121
Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change
Global Resources Outlook 2024: Bend the Trend – Pathways to a liveable planet as resource use spike, Bruyninckx et al., United Nations Environment Programme
The scientific community has never before been more aligned or more resolute on the need for urgent global transformation towards the sustainable use of resources. The authors shed light on how resources are essential to the effective implementation of the Agenda 2030 and multilateral environmental agreements to tackle the triple planetary crisis. The authors illustrate how, since the 2019 edition of this report, rising trends in global resource use have continued or accelerated. They also show how demand for resources is expected to continue increasing in the coming decades. This means that, without urgent and concerted action, by 2060 resource extraction could rise by 60% from 2020 levels – driving increasing damage and risks. However, this fate is not sealed. The authors also describe the potential to turn negative trends around and put humanity on a trajectory toward sustainability.
Pathways to Commercial Liftoff: Next-Generation Geothermal Power, Blankenship et al., Department of Energy
Geothermal power technology has shown compelling advances that can enable it to become a key contributor to secure, domestic, decarbonized power generation for the U.S. as a source of clean firm power. Economywide decarbonization modeling suggests that the U.S. will need an additional 700-900 GW of clean firm capacity to build a decarbonized grid system capable of supporting increased demand. Next-generation geothermal has a unique value proposition, including minimal workforce and supply chain risk, low land use, and flexible generating capability. Next-generation technologies can expand geothermal power by more than a factor of 20, providing 90 GW or more of clean firm power to the grid by 2050 across the U.S.
Estimate of Greenhouse Gas Emissions for the Lower Snake River Dams and Reservoirs using the All-Res Modeling Tool, Wockner et al., Tell The Dam Truth
The four Lower Snake River dams, reservoirs, and their hydropower systems (“LSR dams”) – Lower Granite, Little Goose, Lower Monumental, and Ice Harbor – in the state of Washington have been at the center of national controversy in recent months. Because the dams block the passage of native salmon, a decades-long interest has come to a head to promote removing the dams to restore salmon. At the same time, some advocates for keeping the dams in place continue to argue that the dams create “clean energy” and are “carbon-free” sources of electricity. The authors address those claims by shedding light on the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions caused by the LSR dams and the reservoirs the dams impound.
Paris Maligned II, Maeve O’Connor, Carbon Tracker
The window of time to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement is rapidly shrinking, and yet oil and gas companies are still failing to take the requisite actions to align their activities with Paris. Meanwhile, investor demand for assessments of climate alignment is growing: more and more investors with a ‘universal owner’ investment perspective are recognizing the risks that climate change poses to their wider portfolios, while others are seeking for their investments to be managed ‘sustainably’. Investors can also use climate alignment assessments as a proxy for transition risk exposure to low-carbon future scenarios. The author provides investors with climate alignment and transition risk exposures for 25 of the world’s largest listed oil & gas companies.
The United Nations World Water Development Report 2024: water for prosperity and peace, United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization
Developing and maintaining a secure and equitable water future underpins prosperity and peace for all. The relationship also works in the opposite direction, as poverty and inequality, social tensions, and conflict can amplify water insecurity. The authors call attention to the complex and interlinked relationships between sustainable water management, prosperity, and peace, describing how progress in one dimension can have positive, often essential, repercussions on others. Freshwater use has been growing by just under 1% per year, driven by a combination of socio-economic development and related changes in consumption patterns, including diet. While agriculture accounts for roughly 70% of freshwater withdrawals, industrial (≈20%) and domestic (≈10%) uses are the main drivers of increasing water demand. The impacts of climate change, geopolitical unrest, pandemics, mass migration, hyperinflation, and other crises can exacerbate water access inequalities. In nearly all cases, the poorest and most vulnerable groups are those that suffer the greatest risks to their well-being and livelihoods.
US Energy Storage Monitor, Vanessa Witte and Hanna Nuttall, Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables/American Clean Power Association
The U.S. storage market in Q4, 2023, shattered previous installation records with help from the grid-scale and residential segments. Across all segments, 2023 deployed 8.7 GW, achieving record-breaking growth of 90% compared to 2022 additions. Storage system prices experience another double-digit decline quarter-over-quarter.
Over Half of Homeowners Fear Effects of Climate Change, Including Impact on Home Insurance Costs, Maggie Davis and Dan Shepard, Lending Tree
Most homeowners fear climate change effects — and the youngest are most concerned. Over half (51%) of homeowners are worried climate change-related hazards will affect their homes, with that figure rising to 63% among millennial homeowners. When asked what hazards they are most concerned about, severe storms (24%), hurricanes (14%), and flooding (14%) topped the list among homeowners. Some are planning to move away from places at high risk of climate change hazards, and many believe those risks should be disclosed. A quarter (25%) of homeowners worry climate change will impact their property values in the next 10 years. Among those in at-risk locations, 34% are considering moving, while 13% have already relocated. Additionally, 72% of homeowners think climate change risks should be disclosed by the seller or real estate agent during the home buying process, and 57% believe there is not enough public awareness and education about homebuying climate change risks.
Decarbonizing Water: March 2024 Applying the Voluntary Carbon Market toward Global Water Security, Thomas et al., Mortenson Center in Global Engineering & Resilience at the University of Colorado, Boulder
The linkages between climate change and water insecurity are clear, as are the implications for the global economy. The water sector produces 10 percent of global emissions, resulting largely from energy use for water treatment and transport, but also from wastewater decomposition, gas release from surface water bodies, decomposition of organic matter in reservoirs, and destruction of wetlands. While water management is typically a local challenge, climate finance mechanisms, including the voluntary carbon market (VCM), offer the potential to provide new sources of recurring revenue to create a sustainable, performance-based funding stream to incentivize safe water and sanitation management services globally.
American Catholics’ Views on Climate Justice, Kramarek et al., Center for Applied Research in the Apostolate Georgetown University
Pages 60-61 on climate: Three in five U.S. Catholics (62%) are concerned that climate change will harm them personally at some point in their life, as compared to 38% who are not concerned. Democrats are 33%, a difference between 76% and 43%, more likely than Republicans to share this concern. Independents are 22%, a difference between 65% and 43%, more likely than Republicans to share this concern. Two in five U.S. Catholics (43%) admit that they or someone they know has been affected by the effects of climate change, as compared to 57% who do not. Democrats are 23%, a difference between 53% and 30%, more likely than Republicans to admit it. Independents are 15%, a difference between 45% and 30%, more likely than Republicans to admit it.
International Public Opinion on Climate Change: Extreme Weather and Vulnerability, 2023, Leiserowitz et a.l, Yale Program on Climate Change Communication and Data for Good at Meta
The authors recently conducted a study investigating public experiences with and preparedness for extreme weather and climate-related hazards in 73 areas that are classified as “low-emissions.” This study uses a subset of a major survey in which we investigated climate change attitudes and behaviors in nearly 190 countries and territories. The survey was fielded from August 3 – September 3, 2023. The authors found that a majority of respondents (more than 50%) in all areas surveyed say they have experienced at least one extreme weather event or hazard, such as rising sea levels, flood, drought, long periods of unusually hot weather, wildfire, and severe weather.
Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions
We know it’s frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as “On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light” but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article’s relevance and importance.
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How is New Research assembled?
Most articles appearing here are found via RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance.
Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database.
The objective of New Research isn’t to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers’ impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:
- Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a “yes” to this automatically.
- Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week’s 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.
A few journals offer public access to “preprint” versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. For some key journals this all the mention we’ll see in RSS feeds, so we include such items in New Research. These are flagged as “preprint.”
The section “Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives” includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of “perspectives,” observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.
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