Skeptical Science New Research for Week #12 2024

Investigating the possibilities of temperature concentration distribution in Zayanderood based on climate change, Tahroudi et al., Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2024.101454

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Addressing knowledge gaps on emerging issues in weather and climate extreme events: a systematic review, Kafi et al., Climatic Change 10.1007/s10584-024-03714-5

Climate models can’t explain 2023’s huge heat anomaly — we could be in uncharted territory, Schmidt, Nature Open Access pdf 10.1038/d41586-024-00816-z

Coastal shoreline change assessments at global scales, Warrick et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-46608-x

Editorial Introduction to the Topical Collection: Accrual of Climate Change Risk in Six Vulnerable Countries, Jacob & Guillén Bolaños, Climatic Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-024-03691-9

Effective climate action must integrate climate adaptation and mitigation, Howarth & Robinson, Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-024-01963-x

Equity, Justice, and Drought: Lessons for Climate Services from the U.S. Southwest, Greene & Ferguson, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-22-0185.1

People today who plant trees successfully do it for livelihoods and income not for biodiversity or climate mitigation, MS Ashton et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/978-3-030-92148-4

Physical science research needed to evaluate the viability and risks of marine cloud brightening, Feingold et al., Science Advances 10.1126/sciadv.adi8594

Predict the effects of climate change by studying the effects of climate change, Schwager et al., Oikos Open Access 10.1111/j.0030-1299.2008.16464.x

Preparing for heat risk is complex: Aligning adaptation and mitigation is essential, Howarth, PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000371

The effect of climate change on sources of radionuclides to the marine environment, Gwynn et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01241-w

The global energy transition offers new options for mitigation of coastal hypoxia: Do we know enough?, Handmann & Wallace, Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.17228

Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Priority Climate Action Plans for States, MSAs, Tribes, and Territories, Various

Priority Climate Action Plans (PCAPs) were developed for each state, Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), Tribe, and territory. The list will continue to be updated as the federal EPA receives PCAP submittals. Florida, Iowa, Kentucky, South Dakota, and Wyoming all declined to participate.

Connecting the dots. Local U.S. television coverage of extreme weather and climate change, The Nielsen Company and Climate Central

The authors analyzed local television news coverage of four recent extreme weather events that had notable impacts in the U.S. to understand when and how event-related coverage discussed climate change. The key findings include the following: when television segments with climate change context occur, they have high reach and impact; Audiences surged during extreme weather events; extreme heat was connected to climate change most often, reflecting the state of the science; climate-contextualized segments highlight hazardous impacts; and local news is a critical lever for raising science-based awareness about climate change.

Weathering the Storm: Supply Chain Chains and Climate Risk, Castro-Vincenzi et al., National Bureau of Economic Research

The authors characterize how firms structure supply chains under climate risk. Using new data on the universe of firm-to-firm transactions from an Indian state, the authors show that firms diversify sourcing locations, and suppliers exposed to climate risk charge lower prices. Their event-study analysis finds that firms with suppliers in flood-affected districts experience a decline in inputs lasting two months, followed by a return to original suppliers. They develop a general equilibrium model of firm input sourcing under climate risk. Firms diversify identical inputs from suppliers across space, trading off the probability of a climate shock against higher input costs. They quantify the model using data on 271 Indian districts, showing real wages vary across space and are correlated with geography and productivity. Wages are inversely correlated with sourcing risk, giving rise to a cost minimization-resilience tradeoff. Supply chain diversification unambiguously reduces real wage volatility, but ambiguously affects their levels, as diversification may come with higher input costs. While diversification helps mitigate climate risk, it exacerbates the distributional effects of climate change by reducing wages in regions prone to more frequent shocks.

National Climate Risk Assessment. First pass assessment report, Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water, Government of Australia

The authors aim to help governments, industry and communities prepare for, adapt to, and mitigate risks from a more challenging climate. Climate change poses a significant societal challenge with wide-reaching implications for all Australians. The frequency of climate impacts is on the rise, accompanied by evolving characteristics of extremes and hazards. The escalating risks, impacts, and associated losses require proactive preparation, management, and strategic investments in adaptation. It is imperative to safeguard Australian society, communities, and economy by understanding, and where possible, addressing these effects now. The Risk Assessment uses a phased approach with 3 key stages, drawing on international experience in understanding climate risks and undertaking risk assessments: A preliminary stage comprised of initial scoping of the physical risk assessment and the development of the Risk Assessment methods; The first pass assessment, which consisted of a rapid qualitative assessment to identify a list of nationally significant risks and a subset of these as priority risks. The outcomes of the first pass assessment are presented in this report; The second pass assessment is an in-depth analysis of priority risks using both qualitative and quantitative methods. The second pass assessment is currently underway.

How broadcast TV networks covered climate change in 2023, Evlondo Cooper, Media Matters for America

2023 was the hottest year on record, and it was not even close. Testifying to this calamitous milestone were record-breaking extreme weather events and a record number of billion-dollar disasters — from searing heat waves to droughts, and torrential rains to raging wildfires and plumes of smoke. During this pivotal moment, however, corporate broadcast networks — ABC, CBS, NBC, and Fox Broadcasting Co. — scaled back their climate coverage by 25%, representing a marked decrease in 2023 from the improvements made in 2021 and 2022. The downturn in 2023 highlights the growing divide between the urgent demand for comprehensive climate reporting and the shrinking news media attention it receives.

Climate Scorpion – the sting is in the tail. Introducing planetary solvency, Trust et al., Institute and Faculty of Actuaries and the University of Exeter

The authors argue why and how the actuarial approach can be used for climate change. They begin by outlining how actuaries deal with extreme, ruinous risks, what this means for climate change, what is and is not known about the physical effects, tipping points, and social knock-on effects of climate change, and what actions can be taken to manage the risk. In particular, these actions include policy action to accelerate positive socio-economic tipping points such as the take-up of renewable energy. The authors argue that we should view climate risk as a problem of ‘Planetary Solvency’, understanding and managing risks to the long-term survival of global society. In short, we need to have a best guess about the worst-case and make policy on that basis.

Changing climates: the heat is (still) on, Banerjee et al., SwissRE

The world is getting warmer and natural hazards are becoming more intense, likely bringing higher economic losses in the future. Today, four major weather perils result in expected economic losses of USD $200 billion annually. With more severe weather coming, economic losses are set to rise. The author’s analysis finds the Philippines to be most exposed to rising losses as hazards intensify, followed by the US. China and India, key economies for global growth, are among the least prepared.

Emerging Economies Climate Report 2023, Anthesis Group, British International Investment

The 2023 results show a broad increase in the impacts of climate change relative to 2022. They show how climate change is becoming an increasingly significant concern for businesses and investors in emerging economies. They also highlight the difficult decisions climate change is presenting firms, as well as what they need to effectively manage climate risks and realize potential opportunities for the transition.

State of the Global Climate 2023, Anzellini et al., World Meteorological Organization

2023 was the warmest year on record at 1.45 ± 0.12 °C above the pre-industrial average. Concentrations of the three main greenhouse gases – carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide – reached record-high observed levels. Global mean sea level reached a record high. The rate of sea level rise in the past ten years (2014–2023) has more than doubled since the first decade of the satellite record (1993–2002). Antarctic sea-ice extent reached an absolute record low in February. The annual maximum extent was around 1 million km2 below the previous record low maximum. Preliminary data from the global set of reference glaciers for the hydrological year 2022-2023 show they experienced the largest loss of ice on record (1950–2023), driven by the extremely negative mass balance in both western North America and Europe. Glaciers in Switzerland lost around 10% of their remaining volume in the past two years. Extreme weather continued to lead to severe socio-economic impacts. Extreme heat affected many parts of the world. Wildfires in Hawaii, Canada, and Europe led to the loss of life, the destruction of homes, and large-scale air pollution. Flooding associated with extreme rainfall from the Mediterranean Cyclone Daniel affected Greece, Bulgaria, Türkiye, and Libya with particularly heavy loss of life in Libya.

Still Butchering the Planet: The big-name financiers bankrolling livestock corporations and climate change – 2024 update, Feedback

The authors map the global financial flows to the world’s largest 55 industrial livestock companies spanning the beef, dairy, pork, poultry, and animal feed sectors as an update to Feedback’s 2020 report, Butchering the Planet. These 55 companies, which represent approximately a fifth of global livestock slaughter, are some of the food system’s largest drivers of climate change, deforestation, human rights and labor violations, pandemic risks, and animal welfare abuses. Since the Paris Agreement was signed in 2015, over half a trillion dollars in credit have been provided to the world’s largest 55 industrial livestock companies – an average of $76.9 billion per year – fuelling the expansion of global meat and dairy production. As of March 2023, a total of $323.3 billion in shareholdings and bond holdings were held by private financial institutions in the world’s largest 55 big livestock companies. The expansion of meat and dairy production is completely at odds with the imperative to restrict global temperature rise to avert catastrophic climate change. Despite this, the analysis shows that finance for big livestock companies is on the rise. In the four years between 2019-22, there was an overall 15% increase in finance to the 55 big livestock companies compared to 2015-18.

For Our Future. Indigenous Resilience Report, Reed et al., Government of Canada

Indigenous Peoples have unique strengths for responding to environmental and climate changes. Climate change is one of many crises that First Nations, Inuit, and Métis face. Indigenous knowledge systems and lived experiences are essential components of climate action. The food, water, and energy nexus is central to First Nation, Inuit, and Métis climate leadership. Self-determination is critical to Indigenous-led climate action.

Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions

We know it’s frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as “On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light”  but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article’s relevance and importance. 

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How is New Research assembled?

Most articles appearing here are found via  RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance. 

Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database. 

The objective of New Research isn’t to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers’ impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:

• Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a “yes” to this automatically. 
• Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week’s 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.

A few journals offer public access to “preprint” versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. For some key journals this all the mention we’ll see in RSS feeds, so we include such items in New Research. These are flagged as “preprint.”

The section “Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives” includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of “perspectives,” observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.

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Journals covered

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