Skeptical Science New Research for Week #10 2024
26 min read
Skeptical Science New Research for Week #10 2024
Posted on 7 March 2024 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open acccess notables
Projections of an ice-free Arctic Ocean, Jahn et al., Nature Reviews Earth & Environment:
Observed Arctic sea ice losses are a sentinel of anthropogenic climate change. These reductions are projected to continue with ongoing warming, ultimately leading to an ice-free Arctic (sea ice area 2). In this Review, we synthesize understanding of the timing and regional variability of such an ice-free Arctic. In the September monthly mean, the earliest ice-free conditions (the first single occurrence of an ice-free Arctic) could occur in 2020–2030s under all emission trajectories and are likely to occur by 2050. However, daily September ice-free conditions are expected approximately 4 years earlier on average, with the possibility of preceding monthly metrics by 10 years. Consistently ice-free September conditions (frequent occurrences of an ice-free Arctic) are anticipated by mid-century (by 2035–2067), with emission trajectories determining how often and for how long the Arctic could be ice free.
Sustained growth of sulfur hexafluoride emissions in China inferred from atmospheric observations, An et al., Nature Communications:
Sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) is a potent greenhouse gas. Here we use long-term atmospheric observations to determine SF6 emissions from China between 2011 and 2021, which are used to evaluate the Chinese national SF6 emission inventory and to better understand the global SF6 budget. SF6 emissions in China substantially increased from 2.6 (2.3-2.7, 68% uncertainty) Gg yr−1 in 2011 to 5.1 (4.8-5.4) Gg yr−1 in 2021. The increase from China is larger than the global total emissions rise, implying that it has offset falling emissions from other countries.
The rise, fall and rebirth of ocean carbon sequestration as a climate ‘solution’, De Pryck & Boettcher, Global Environmental Change:
Using an innovative quali-quantitative methodology which combines scientometrics with document analysis, observational fieldwork, and interviews, we outline three historical phases in the history of ocean carbon sequestration that follow recurring cycles of hype, controversy and disappointment. We argue that the most recent hype around ocean carbon sequestration was not triggered by a technological breakthrough or a reduction in scientific uncertainty, but by new socio-technical configurations and coalitions. We conclude by showing that how climate change solutions are put on the agenda and become legitimised is both a scientific and political process, linked to how science frames the climate crisis, and ultimately, its governance.
“In the end, the story of climate change was one of hope and redemption”: ChatGPT’s narrative on global warming, Sommer & von Querfurth, Ambio:
This paper examines the narrative of ChatGPT’s stories on climate change. Our explorative analysis reveals that ChatGPT’s stories on climate change show a relatively uniform structure and similar content. Generally, the narrative is in line with scientific knowledge on climate change; the stories convey no significant misinformation. However, specific topics in current debates on global warming are conspicuously missing. According to the ChatGPT narrative, humans as a species are responsible for climate change and specific economic activities or actors associated with carbon emissions play no role. Analogously, the social structuration of vulnerability to climate impacts and issues of climate justice are hardly addressed. ChatGPT’s narrative consists of de-politicized stories that are highly optimistic about technological progress.
Increasing Flood Hazard Posed by Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification in a Changing Climate, Lockwood et al., Geophysical Research Letters:
Tropical cyclones (TCs) that rapidly intensify (RI) before hitting land are typically hard to predict and cause immense destruction. We used synthetic TCs downscaled from global climate models and physics-based hazard models to examine the dangers posed by these RI storms in historical and future climates. The TC simulation shows that, as the climate warms, the number of TCs undergoing rapid intensification could rise substantially in the North Atlantic region. Additionally, the likelihood of rapid intensification within 24 hr of landfall significantly increases. These TCs are much riskier, particularly in terms of heavy rainfall, even when compared to equally strong TCs that did not rapidly intensify. Consequently, 100-year rainfall and storm tide levels will greatly increase under climate change, largely due to the increase of RI events in the future.
Past and Projected Future Droughts in the Upper Colorado River Basin, McCabe et al., Geophysical Research Letters:
A long and severe drought has affected much of the western United States since about the year 2000 CE, including the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB). Comparing this drought to past UCRB droughts (during 1 CE through 2021 CE), we find that the 2000–2021 drought is not the most severe UCRB drought. The results also suggest that natural variability combined with projected climate warming could result in UCRB drought events that are more severe than any drought since 1 CE.
From this week’s government/NGO section:
Many newly labeled USDA climate-smart conservation practices lack climate benefits, Anne Schechinger, Environmental Working Group:
Newly designated U.S Department of Agriculture’s climate-smart conservation practices likely do not reduce agriculture’s greenhouse gas emissions. Only practices that reduce emissions are eligible for $19.5 billion in 2022 Inflation Reduction Act funds. The new designations make it look, erroneously, like a lot of money is going to climate-smart agriculture. Against the backdrop of the deepening climate crisis, the Department of Agriculture recently added 15 Environmental Quality Incentives Program, or EQIP, practices to its climate-smart conservation list – but many likely do little or nothing to help in the climate fight.
Rooftop solar on the rise. Small solar projects are delivering 10 times as much power as a decade ago, Dutzik et al, Environment America Research & Policy Center and Frontier Group:
Small-scale solar energy – of which rooftop solar is the largest component – is growing rapidly in the U.S., producing 10 times as much power in 2022 as a decade earlier. Small-scale solar generated enough electricity in 2022 to power 5.7 million typical American homes – more than all the homes in the state of Pennsylvania. The U.S. has only scratched the surface of rooftop solar’s potential. Rooftop solar has the technical potential to generate electricity equivalent to about 45% of all electricity sales in the U.S. at 2022 demand levels. In 2022, the U.S. only generated about 1.5% of all the electricity it used from rooftop solar.
150 articles in 74 journals by 907 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
Decoding low-frequency climate variations: A case study on ENSO and ocean surface warming, Kallummal, Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2024.101453
Robust Polar Amplification in Ice-Free Climates Relies on Ocean Heat Transport and Cloud Radiative Effects, England & Feldl, Journal of Climate Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0151.1
Spatiotemporal heterogeneity in global urban surface warming, Ge et al., Remote Sensing of Environment 10.1016/j.rse.2024.114081
Surface Albedo Feedback, Seasonal Heat Storage and Meridional Heat Transport Determine the Seasonality of Recent Warming in Antarctica, Dai, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2023jd040000
Sustained intensification of the Aleutian Low induces weak tropical Pacific sea surface warming, Dow et al., Weather and Climate Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.5194/wcd-5-357-2024
The Impact of Rotation on Tropical Climate, the Hydrologic Cycle, and Climate Sensitivity, Silvers et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl105850
Observations of climate change, effects
Anthropogenic climate change has influenced global river flow seasonality, Wang et al., Science 10.1126/science.adi9501
Australia’s Tinderbox Drought: An extreme natural event likely worsened by human-caused climate change, Devanand et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adj3460
Causes of the severe drought in Southwest China during the summer of 2022, Zhu et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107320
Fast Enhancement of the Stratification in the Indian Ocean over the Past 20 Years, Peng & Wang, Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0255.1
Less concentrated precipitation and more extreme events over the three river headwaters region of the Tibetan Plateau in a warming climate, Du et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107311
Multi-Decadal Coastal Acidification in the Northern Gulf of Mexico Driven by Climate Change and Eutrophication, Jiang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl106300
Northward Shift and Narrowing of the ITCZ in 20 Years of AIRS Data, Aumann et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2023jd038723
Observational Evidence for a Regime Shift in Summer Antarctic Sea Ice, Hobbs et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0479.1
Seasonally dependent increases in subweekly temperature variability over Southern Hemisphere landmasses detected in multiple reanalyses, Martineau et al., Weather and Climate Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.5194/wcd-5-1-2024
Summer Deep Depressions Increase Over the Eastern North Atlantic, D’Andrea et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl104435
Summer heatwaves trends and hotspots in the Barcelona Metropolitan Region (1914–2020), Serra et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00704-024-04912-y
Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects
Climatological reference stations: Definitions and requirements, Merlone et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8406
Cooler Arctic surface temperatures simulated by climate models are closer to satellite-based data than the ERA5 reanalysis, Tian et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01276-z
Using machine learning to analyze the changes in extreme precipitation in Southern China, Wang et al., Atmospheric Research Open Access 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107307
Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects
Aquaplanet simulations with winter and summer hemispheres: model setup and circulation response to warming, Schemm & Röthlisberger, Weather and Climate Dynamics Open Access 10.5194/wcd-5-43-2024
Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Highland Areas in Kastamonu, Turkey, Gür et al., Anthropocene 10.1016/j.ancene.2024.100432
Emergent Constraint on Projection of the North Pacific Monsoon Trough and Its Implications for Typhoon Activity Using CMIP6 Models, Gou et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2023jd040471
Emergent constraints on carbon budgets as a function of global warming, Cox et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-46137-7
Ensemble projections of climate and streamflow in a typical basin of semi-arid steppes in Mongolian Plateau of 2021?2100, PAN et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2024.02.004
Evaluating future urban temperature over smart cities of the Gangetic plains using statistically downscaled CMIP6 projections, Kumar et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-024-04896-9
Projected precipitation and temperature changes in the Middle East—West Asia using RegCM4.7 under SSP scenarios, Babaeian et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-024-04900-2
Projection of future precipitation, air temperature, and solar radiation changes in southeastern China, Disasa et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-024-04891-0
Regional climate projections of daily extreme temperatures in Argentina applying statistical downscaling to CMIP5 and CMIP6 models, Balmaceda-Huarte et al., Climate Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-024-07147-9
Replicating the Hadley cell edge and subtropical jet latitude disconnect in idealized atmospheric models, Menzel et al., Weather and Climate Dynamics Open Access 10.5194/wcd-5-251-2024
Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection
From regional climate models to usable information, Jebeile, Climatic Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-024-03693-7
Impact of precipitation mass sinks on midlatitude storms in idealized simulations across a wide range of climates, Abbott & O’Gorman, Weather and Climate Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.5194/wcd-5-17-2024
Model Mean State Sea Ice Thickness Reflects Dynamic Effect Biases: A Process Based Evaluation, Anheuser et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl106963
Storylines for Future Projections of Precipitation Over New Zealand in CMIP6 Models, Gibson et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jd039664
The Impact of “Hot Models” on a CMIP6 Ensemble Used by Climate Service Providers in Canada: Do Global Constraints Lead to Appreciable Differences in Regional Projections?, Cannon, Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0459.1
Cryosphere & climate change
Changes in glacier surface temperature across the Third Pole from 2000 to 2021, Ren et al., Remote Sensing of Environment 10.1016/j.rse.2024.114076
Emerging long-term trends and interdecadal cycles in Antarctic polynyas, Duffy et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1073/pnas.2321595121
European summer weather linked to North Atlantic freshwater anomalies in preceding years, Oltmanns et al., Weather and Climate Dynamics Open Access 10.5194/wcd-5-109-2024
Observational Evidence for a Regime Shift in Summer Antarctic Sea Ice, Hobbs et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0479.1
Projections of an ice-free Arctic Ocean, Jahn et al., Nature Reviews Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43017-023-00515-9
The effect of landfast sea ice buttressing on ice dynamic speedup in the Larsen B embayment, Antarctica, Surawy-Stepney et al., The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-18-977-2024
Why is Summertime Arctic Sea Ice Drift Speed Projected to Decrease?, Ward & Tandon Tandon, The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-18-995-2024
Sea level & climate change
Rising sea levels and the increase of shoreline wave energy at American Samoa, Barnes et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-024-55636-y
The Role of Anthropogenic Forcings on Historical Sea-Level Change in the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool Region, Samanta et al., Earth’s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef003684
Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry
Speed of thermal adaptation of terrestrial vegetation alters Earth’s long-term climate, Rogger et al., Science Advances Open Access pdf 10.1126/sciadv.adj4408
Younger Dryas and Early Holocene ice-margin dynamics in northwest Russia, Boyes et al., Boreas Open Access pdf 10.1111/bor.12653
Biology & climate change, related geochemistry
A species distribution model of the giant kelp Macrocystis pyrifera: Worldwide changes and a focus on the Southeast Pacific, Gonzalez?Aragon et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.10901
Are fish immunocompetent enough to face climate change?, Franke et al., Biology Letters Open Access 10.1098/rsbl.2023.0346
Bellwethers of change: population modelling of North Pacific humpback whales from 2002 through 2021 reveals shift from recovery to climate response, Cheeseman et al., Royal Society Open Science Open Access pdf 10.1098/rsos.231462
Declining calcium concentration drives shifts toward smaller and less nutritious zooplankton in northern lakes, Bergström et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.17220
Deforestation poses deleterious effects to tree-climbing species under climate change, Zlotnick et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-024-01939-x
Differential advances in budburst timing among black spruce, white spruce and balsam fir across Canada, Podadera et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.109950
Drought influences habitat associations and abundances of birds in California’s Central Valley, Goldstein et al., Diversity and Distributions Open Access 10.1111/ddi.13827
Drought responses of Italian silver fir provenances in a climate change perspective, Oggioni et al., Dendrochronologia Open Access 10.1016/j.dendro.2024.126184
Flood-irrigated agriculture mediates climate-induced wetland scarcity for summering sandhill cranes in western North America, Donnelly et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.10998
Future climate-induced distribution shifts in a sexually dimorphic key predator of the Southern Ocean, Ouled?Cheikh et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.17191
Global emergent responses of stream microbial metabolism to glacier shrinkage, Kohler et al., Nature Geoscience Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41561-024-01393-6
Growth-climate relationships of four tree species in the subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forests in Southwest China, Xu et al., Dendrochronologia 10.1016/j.dendro.2024.126186
Impacts of behaviour and acclimation of metabolic rate on energetics in sheltered ectotherms: a climate change perspective, Enriquez-Urzelai & Gvoždík, Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1098/rspb.2023.2152
Kilometre-scale simulations over Fennoscandia reveal a large loss of tundra due to climate warming, Lagergren et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-21-1093-2024
Lineage-level species distribution model to assess the impact of climate change on the habitat suitability of Boleophthalmus pectinirostris, Wu et al., Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.3389/fevo.2024.1364822
Plant invasion in Mediterranean Europe: current hotspots and future scenarios, Cao Pinna et al., Ecography Open Access pdf 10.1111/ecog.07085
Plant–soil interactions alter nitrogen and phosphorus dynamics in an advancing subarctic treeline, Fetzer et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.17200
Protecting alpine biodiversity in the Middle East from climate change: Implications for high-elevation birds, Ahmadi et al., Diversity and Distributions Open Access pdf 10.1111/ddi.13826
Restoring spatiotemporal variability to enhance the capacity for dispersal-limited species to track climate change, Backus et al., Ecology Open Access pdf 10.1002/ecy.4257
Seafloor primary production in a changing Arctic Ocean, Attard et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 10.1073/pnas.2303366121
Temperature and CO2 interactively drive shifts in the compositional and functional structure of peatland protist communities, Kilner et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17203
Tree growth at the limits: the response of multiple conifers to opposing climatic constraints along an elevational gradient in the Alps, Obojes et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access pdf 10.3389/ffgc.2024.1332941
Widespread increase in plant transpiration driven by global greening, Chen et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104395
GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry
Deep learning applied to CO2 power plant emissions quantification using simulated satellite images, Dumont Le Brazidec et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-1995-2024
Estimation of Soil Moisture Thresholds for Aggravation of Global Terrestrial Carbon Uptake Losses, Yan et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2023jd040392
Global-Scale Convergence Obscures Inconsistencies in Soil Carbon Change Predicted by Earth System Models, Shi et al., AGU Advances Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023av001068
Optimising urban measurement networks for CO2 flux estimation: a high-resolution observing system simulation experiment using GRAMM/GRAL, Vardag & Maiwald Maiwald, Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-1885-2024
Post-fire soil greenhouse gas fluxes in boreal Scots pine forests–Are they affected by surface fires with different severities?, Köster et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.109954
Reconciling ice core CO2 and land-use change following New World-Old World contact, King et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-45894-9
Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001
Sustained growth of sulfur hexafluoride emissions in China inferred from atmospheric observations, An et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-46084-3
CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering
Bridging Quantitative and Qualitative Science for BECCS in Abandoned Croplands, Næss et al., Earth’s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef003849
Delayed Onset of Indian Summer Monsoon in Response to CO2 Removal, Zhang et al., Earth’s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef004039
Seaweeds for carbon dioxide removal (CDR)–Getting the science right, Troell et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000377
The rise, fall and rebirth of ocean carbon sequestration as a climate ‘solution’, De Pryck & Boettcher, Global Environmental Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102820
Decarbonization
Beyond the Shockley-Queisser limit: Exploring new frontiers in solar energy harvest, Lee, Science 10.1126/science.ado4308
Bridging Quantitative and Qualitative Science for BECCS in Abandoned Croplands, Næss et al., Earth’s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef003849
Comprehensive investigation of the durability and mechanical properties of eco-friendly geopolymer concrete (alkali-activated), Esparham & Rezaei, International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology 10.1007/s13762-024-05499-7
Direct Ethanol Fuel Cell for Clean Electric Energy: Unravelling the Role of Electrode Materials for a Sustainable Future, Bishnoi et al., Advanced Energy and Sustainability Research Open Access 10.1002/aesr.202300266
Identification of reliable locations for wind power generation through a global analysis of wind droughts, Antonini et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01260-7
Managing the low carbon transition pathways through solid waste electricity, Raza et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-024-56167-2
Geoengineering climate
Flawed Emergency Intervention: Slow Ocean Response to Abrupt Stratospheric Aerosol Injection, Pflüger et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl106132
Aerosols
The direct and indirect radiative effects of sea salt aerosols over the western Pacific using an online-coupled regional chemistry-climate model with a developed sea salt emission scheme, Li et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107325
Climate change communications & cognition
Can “climate upheaval” be a more informative term than “climate change”?, Chen, Environmental Science & Policy 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103716
Combatting Climate Disinformation: Comparing the Effectiveness of Correction Placement and Type, Christner et al., Environmental Communication Open Access pdf 10.1080/17524032.2024.2316757
Cost sensitivity, partisan cues, and support for the Green New Deal, Benegal & Green Green, Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1007/s13412-024-00897-2
The Brief Solastalgia Scale: A Psychometric Evaluation and Revision, Christensen et al., EcoHealth Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10393-024-01673-y
The newsworthiness of “climate change” in China over the last thirty years (1993–2022): a diachronic corpus-based news discourse analysis, Chen & Liu, Climatic Change 10.1007/s10584-024-03703-8
Vulnerable voices: using topic modeling to analyze newspaper coverage of climate change in 26 non-Annex I countries (2010–2020), McAllister et al., Environmental Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1088/1748-9326/ad22b7
“In the end, the story of climate change was one of hope and redemption”: ChatGPT’s narrative on global warming, Sommer & von Querfurth, Ambio Open Access pdf 10.1007/s13280-024-01997-7
Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change
A potential of iron slag-based soil amendment as a suppressor of greenhouse gas (CH4 and N2O) emissions in rice paddy, Galgo et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1290969
A scrutiny of plasticity management in irrigated wheat systems under CMIP6 earth system models (case study: Golestan Province, Iran), Hosseinpour et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology Open Access 10.1007/s00704-024-04902-0
Climate change reduces agricultural total factor productivity in major agricultural production areas of China even with continuously increasing agricultural inputs, Zhou et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.109953
Enhancing dietary diversity and food security through the adoption of climate-smart agricultural practices in Nigeria: a micro level evidence, Omotoso & Omotayo, Environment, Development and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10668-024-04681-8
Harvest residues: A relevant term in the carbon balance of croplands?, Ingwersen et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.109935
Long-term straw return to a wheat-maize system results in topsoil organic C saturation and increased yields while no stimulating or reducing yield-scaled N2O and NO emissions, Yao et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.109937
Nighttime warming promotes copper translocation from root to shoot of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) through enlarging root systems, Qi et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1284198
Projecting contributions of marine protected areas to rebuild fish stocks under climate change, Cheung et al., npj Ocean Sustainability Open Access 10.1038/s44183-024-00046-w
Significant accrual of soil organic carbon through long-term rice cultivation in paddy fields in China, Yang et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17213
Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change
Anthropogenic climate change has influenced global river flow seasonality, Wang et al., Science 10.1126/science.adi9501
Beyond the ice: decoding Lake Mertzbakher’s response to global climate shifts, Zhang et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1351872
Future water storage changes over the Mediterranean, Middle East, and North Africa in response to global warming and stratospheric aerosol intervention, Rezaei et al., Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2023-1654
Increasing Flood Hazard Posed by Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification in a Changing Climate, Lockwood et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl105624
Less concentrated precipitation and more extreme events over the three river headwaters region of the Tibetan Plateau in a warming climate, Du et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107311
Long-term variability and trends of meteorological droughts in Ukraine, Semenova & Vicente?Serrano, International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.8416
Past and Projected Future Droughts in the Upper Colorado River Basin, McCabe et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl107978
Regime Shifts in Arctic Terrestrial Hydrology Manifested From Impacts of Climate Warming, Rawlins & Karmalkar Karmalkar Karmalkar, The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-18-1033-2024
Sensitivity of Rainfall Extremes to Unprecedented Indian Ocean Dipole Events, MacLeod et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl105258
Spatial and temporal variations of aridity-humidity indices in Montenegro, Lukovi? et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-024-04893-y
The changing nature of groundwater in the global water cycle, Kuang et al., Science 10.1126/science.adf0630
Updating catastrophe models to today’s climate – an application of a large ensemble approach to extreme rainfall, Lang & Poschlod, Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100594
Urbanization Further Intensifies Short-Duration Rainfall Extremes in a Warmer Climate, Yan et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2024gl108565
Using machine learning to analyze the changes in extreme precipitation in Southern China, Wang et al., Atmospheric Research Open Access 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107307
Climate change economics
Decoupling of CO2 emissions and income in the U.S.: A new look from EKC, Wang & Kim, Climatic Change 10.1007/s10584-024-03706-5
Climate change mitigation public policy research
A capability approach to analyse well-being impacts of wind energy infrastructure, Velasco-Herrejón et al., Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1088/2634-4505/ad269c
Citizen and specialist co-design of energy policy: The case of home energy decarbonization in the UK, Willis et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103706
Embodied GHG of missing middle: Residential building form and strategies for more efficient housing, Rankin et al., Journal of Industrial Ecology Open Access pdf 10.1111/jiec.13461
Equity assessment of global mitigation pathways in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, Kanitkar et al., Climate Policy Open Access pdf 10.1080/14693062.2024.2319029
Gas power — How much is needed on the road to carbon neutrality?, Scharf & Möst, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114026
Industrial ripples: Automotive electrification sends through carbon emissions, Li & Song, Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114045
Limited impact of hydrogen co-firing on prolonging fossil-based power generation under low emissions scenarios, Oshiro & Fujimori, Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-46101-5
Locally-led governance of residential heat transitions: Emerging experience of and lessons from the Dutch approach, Devenish & Lockwood, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114027
Research on energy consumption evaluation and energy saving and carbon reduction measures for typical general hospitals in hot summer and warm winter regions, Wang et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101381
The Critical Role of Customs and Trade Controls in Mitigating Climate Change, , Journal of Development and Social Sciences Open Access pdf 10.47205/jdss.2021(2-iv)74
The impact of Iran’s urban heritage on sustainability, climate change and carbon zero, Afsahhosseini, Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-04434-z
The multiple benefits of current and potential energy efficiency policies: A Scottish islands case study, Matthew, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114032
Time of use pricing and likelihood of shifting energy activities, strategies, and timing, Muttaqee et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114019
Trees on smallholder farms and forest restoration are critical for Rwanda to achieve net zero emissions, Mugabowindekwe et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01278-x
What we talk about when we talk about electricity: A thematic analysis of recent political debates on Swedish electricity supply, Sonnsjö, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114053
Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research
Are cities ready for climate change? Exploring the spatial discrepancies between urban vulnerability and adaptation readiness, Yao et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2024.1293651
Assessing leverage points for strengthening adaptive capacity in a Global South food system: A psychometric approach, Rosengren et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100592
Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Highland Areas in Kastamonu, Turkey, Gür et al., Anthropocene 10.1016/j.ancene.2024.100432
Climate threats to coastal infrastructure and sustainable development outcomes, Adshead et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-024-01950-2
Controlling the water: citizens’ place–related adaptation to landslides in mid-Norway, Heidenreich & Næss, Regional Environmental Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10113-024-02207-6
Explaining urban communities’ adaptation strategies for climate change risk: novel evidence from Rawalpindi, Pakistan, Ahmed & Luqman , Natural Hazards Open Access 10.1007/s11069-024-06501-8
High resolution modelling of the urban heat island of 100 European cities, Lauwaet et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.101850
Identifying constraints and limits to climate change adaptation in Austria under deep uncertainty, Schinko et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2024.1303767
Managing retreat? An empirical reflection on adopting relocation initiatives as adaptation policy in Louisiana, Birch et al., Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2024.2312815
Resilience in the Anthropocene: discourses of development, climate change, and security in South Asia, Thakur & Jayaram, Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 10.1016/j.cosust.2024.101425
Climate change impacts on human health
Beyond heatwaves: A nuanced view of temperature-related mortality, Bouchama et al., Temperature Open Access pdf 10.1080/23328940.2024.2310459
High-resolution projections of outdoor thermal stress in the twenty-first century: a Tasmanian case study, Weeding et al., International Journal of Biometeorology Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00484-024-02622-8
Impact of extreme weather events on healthcare utilization and mortality in the United States, Salas et al., Nature Medicine 10.1038/s41591-024-02833-x
Impacts of climate change on allergenic pollen production: A systematic review and meta-analysis, Mousavi et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.109948
Impacts of climate change on human health in humanitarian settings: Evidence gaps and future research needs, McIver et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000243
Man, it’s a hot one: Trends and extremes in Florida autumn heat stress, Ennis & Milrad, International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8415
Climate change & geopolitics
The role of geostrategic interests in motivating public support for foreign climate aid, Bugden & Brazil , Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences Open Access 10.1007/s13412-024-00900-w
Other
An Unexpected Decline in Spring Atmospheric Humidity in the Interior Southwestern United States and Implications for Forest Fires, Jacobson et al., Journal of Hydrometeorology 10.1175/jhm-d-23-0121.1
Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives
Climate change mitigation and Sustainable Development Goals: Evidence and research gaps, Pathak et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000366
Opinion: Can uncertainty in climate sensitivity be narrowed further?, Sherwood & Forest Forest , Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-24-2679-2024
Stop arguing and cut emissions, Morgan & Apt, Science Open Access pdf 10.1126/science.adn9176
Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change
Investing in Carbon Bombs. How Asset Managers are Using Your Savings to Finance Fossil Fuel Projects and Fuel the Climate Crisis, Waxman et al., Sierra Club
The authors highlight some of the worst new fossil fuel projects in the U.S. being undertaken right now that have been made possible by Wall Street financing, and will point out how some of the largest U.S. asset managers are using investor’s savings and investments to fund the climate crisis by buying new bonds from fossil fuel companies behind these types of projects.
Changing climates: the heat is (still) on. Hazard intensification set to compound economic losses, Banerjee et al., Swiss Re
Understanding how natural perils shape the risk landscape is critical to advancing our preparedness for climate change. Warming temperatures bring physical repercussions including more intense hazards, which, in turn, can compound loss outcomes. The authors combine their insurance knowledge of property damage resulting from natural disasters with new scientific evidence from the IPCC on the probability (low, medium, high) of more severe weather conditions. To date, the main drivers of rising losses have been economic growth and urbanization. Climate change plays a relatively small role today, but the authors expect associated losses to accumulate and contribute more in the future. The analysis covers 36 countries and focuses on four major weather perils: floods, tropical cyclones, winter storms in Europe and severe convective storms. These are the main loss-inducing perils for the insurance industry today and account for the largest share of economic losses from natural disasters globally. As of today, in terms of property impact, these perils cause expected economic losses of USD 200 billion annually. This is just the lower bound of all potential losses, as not all weather perils (e.g., heatwaves) are covered, and only property losses are accounted for. As changing climates fuel weather event intensity, loss potential will likely rise.
Many newly labeled USDA climate-smart conservation practices lack climate benefits, Anne Schechinger, Environmental Working Group
Newly designated U.S Department of Agriculture’s climate-smart conservation practices likely do not reduce agriculture’s greenhouse gas emissions. Only practices that reduce emissions are eligible for $19.5 billion in 2022 Inflation Reduction Act funds. The new designations make it look, erroneously, like a lot of money is going to climate-smart agriculture. Against the backdrop of the deepening climate crisis, the Department of Agriculture recently added 15 Environmental Quality Incentives Program, or EQIP, practices to its climate-smart conservation list – but many likely do little or nothing to help in the climate fight.
Rooftop solar on the rise. Small solar projects are delivering 10 times as much power as a decade ago, Dutzik et al, Environment America Research & Policy Center and Frontier Group
Small-scale solar energy – of which rooftop solar is the largest component – is growing rapidly in the U.S., producing 10 times as much power in 2022 as a decade earlier. Small-scale solar generated enough electricity in 2022 to power 5.7 million typical American homes – more than all the homes in the state of Pennsylvania. The U.S. has only scratched the surface of rooftop solar’s potential. Rooftop solar has the technical potential to generate electricity equivalent to about 45% of all electricity sales in the U.S. at 2022 demand levels. In 2022, the U.S. only generated about 1.5% of all the electricity it used from rooftop solar.
Climate tax policy reform options in 2025, Bistline et al., Brookings
With the expiration of many tax cuts and unmet climate targets, 2025 could be a crucial year for climate policy in the United States. Using an integrated model of energy supply and demand, the authors assess climate policies that the U.S. government may consider in 2025 across a range of policy scenarios. First, the emissions reductions of the Inflation Reduction Act are significantly augmented under scenarios that add a modest carbon fee or, to a lesser extent, that implement a clean electricity standard in the power sector. Second, net fiscal costs can be substantially reduced in scenarios that include a carbon fee. Third, expanding the IRA tax credits yields modest additional emissions reductions with higher fiscal costs. Finally, although none of the policy combinations across these scenarios achieve the U.S. target of a 50-52% economy-wide emissions reduction by 2030 from 2005 levels, the carbon fee, and clean electricity standard scenarios achieve these levels between 2030 and 2035.
People and planet : addressing the interlinked challenges of climate change, poverty and hunger in Asia and the Pacific, Sharpe et al., Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, Asian Development Bank, and the United Nations Development Programme
The effects of climate change, including slow and sudden onset weather events, are reducing the ability of countries to continue to advance SDG 1 (No Poverty) and SDG 2 (Zero Hunger). The authors examine this issue at the regional and sub-regional level, identifying specific effects of climate change on agricultural and labor productivity as well as food supply chains and food security.
Energy, Power and Transition. State of Power 2024, Buxton et al., Transnational Institute
The fossil fuel-based energy system has shaped capitalism and our geopolitical order. Our 12th State of Power report unveils the corporate and financial actors that underpin this order, the dangers of an unjust energy transition, lessons for movements of resistance, and the possibilities for transformative change.
Measuring Economic Vulnerability and Resilience to Climate Change, Joseph Matola, International Development Research Centre
Current climate finance levels are not only inadequate but also badly targeted to reach countries with the most urgent needs. To rectify these trends, it is important to establish the extent of climate change vulnerability and resilience of each country as a new basis for climate finance allocation. Two indices – the Climate Change and Economic Vulnerability Index and the Climate Change and Economic Resilience Index serve this function. These indices have been developed by using relevant economic, social, and climatological data to track the vulnerability and resilience of economies around the world. They show that low-income economies, many of them African, face the highest vulnerabilities and lowest resilience to climate change effects and therefore need more financing. A mapping of the 2021 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) financing disbursements for climate change adaptation against the two indices demonstrates their practical application in climate finance decision-making and allocations. The results show that there has indeed been some misalignment between the OECD’s allocation of adaptation financing and the vulnerability and resilience of different economies.
Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions
We know it’s frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as “On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light” but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article’s relevance and importance.
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- The weekly New Research catch is checked against the Unpaywall database with accessible items being flagged. Especially for just-published articles this mechansim may fail. If you’re interested in an article title and it is not listed here as “open access,” be sure to check the link anyway.
How is New Research assembled?
Most articles appearing here are found via RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance.
Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database.
The objective of New Research isn’t to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers’ impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:
- Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a “yes” to this automatically.
- Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week’s 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.
A few journals offer public access to “preprint” versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. For some key journals this all the mention we’ll see in RSS feeds, so we include such items in New Research. These are flagged as “preprint.”
The section “Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives” includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of “perspectives,” observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.
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