Skeptical Science New Research for Week #9 2024
29 min read
Skeptical Science New Research for Week #9 2024
Posted on 29 February 2024 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open access notables
Rockfall from an increasingly unstable mountain slope driven by climate warming, Stoffel et al., Nature Geoscience:
Rockfall in high-mountain regions is thought to be changing due to accelerating climate warming and permafrost degradation, possibly resulting in enhanced activity and larger volumes involved in individual falls. Yet the systematic lack of long-term observations of rockfall largely hampers an in-depth assessment of how activity may have been altered by a warming climate. Here we compile a continuous time series from 1920 to 2020 of periglacial rockfall activity using growth-ring records from 375 trees damaged by past rockfall at Täschgufer (Swiss Alps). We show that the ongoing warming favours the release of rockfall and that changes in activity correlate significantly with summer air temperatures at interannual and decadal timescales. An initial increase in rockfall occurred in the late 1940s to early 1950s following early twentieth century warming. From the mid-1980s, activity reached new and hitherto unprecedented levels.
Side Effects of Sulfur-Based Geoengineering Due To Absorptivity of Sulfate Aerosols, Wunderlin et al., Geophysical Research Letters:
Sulfur-based stratospheric aerosol intervention (SAI) can cool the climate, but also heats the tropical lower stratosphere if done with injections at low latitudes. We explore the role of this heating in the climate response to SAI, by using mechanistic experiments that remove the effects of longwave absorption of sulfate aerosols above the tropopause. If longwave absorption by stratospheric aerosols is disabled, the heating of the tropical tropopause and most of the related side effects are strongly alleviated and the cooling per Tg-S injected is 40% bigger. Such side-effects include the poleward expansion of eddy-driven jets, acceleration of the stratospheric residual circulation, and delay of Antarctic ozone recovery. Our results add to other recent findings on SAI side effects and demonstrate that SAI scenarios with low-latitude injections of absorptive materials may result in atmospheric effects and regional climate changes that are comparable to those produced by the CO2 warming signal.
Academic capture in the Anthropocene: a framework to assess climate action in higher education, Lachapelle et al., Climatic Change:
Higher education institutions have a mandate to serve the public good, yet in many cases fail to adequately respond to the global climate crisis. The inability of academic institutions to commit to purposeful climate action through targeted research, education, outreach, and policy is due in large part to “capture” by special interests. Capture involves powerful minority interests that exert influence and derive benefits at the expense of a larger group or purpose. This paper makes a conceptual contribution to advance a framework of “academic capture” applied to the climate crisis in higher education institutions. Academic capture is the result of the three contributing factors of increasing financialization issues, influence of the fossil fuel industry, and reticence of university employees to challenge the status quo.
The animal agriculture industry, US universities, and the obstruction of climate understanding and policy, Morris & Jacquet, Climatic Change:
In the USA, one of the largest consumers and producers of meat and dairy products, livestock greenhouse gas emissions remain effectively unregulated. What might explain this? Similar to fossil fuel companies, US animal agriculture companies responded to evidence that their products cause climate change by minimizing their role in the climate crisis and shaping policymaking in their favor. Here, we show that the industry has done so with the help of university experts. The beef industry awarded funding to Dr. Frank Mitloehner from the University of California, Davis, to assess “Livestock’s Long Shadow,” and his work was used to claim that cows should not be blamed for climate change. The animal agriculture industry is now involved in multiple multi-million-dollar efforts with universities to obstruct unfavorable policies as well as influence climate change policy and discourse. Here, we traced how these efforts have downplayed the livestock sector’s contributions to the climate crisis, minimized the need for emission regulations and other policies aimed at internalizing the costs of the industry’s emissions, and promoted industry-led climate “solutions” that maintain production.
Biochar carbon markets:A mitigation deterrence threat, Price et al., Environmental Science & Policy:
We draw from original data collected in 2022 from 33 semi-structured interviews with mostly UK based experts who have an interest or potential interest in biochar, supplemented with a document analysis. Conceptual approaches from the social studies of finance have guided the analysis, an approach that enables systematic investigation of experts’ understandings of the biochar carbon market landscape in the UK. Although biochar proponents forwarded narratives – or fictional expectations – about how the future trading of carbon credits in carbon markets could lower the cost of producing biochar on a large scale, other experts doubted the credibility of these narratives. Whilst the construction and sustainable functioning of a UK-based biochar carbon market remains a speculative, rather than credible proposition, it nevertheless constitutes a threat of mitigation deterrence because of the assumption that a UK biochar carbon market will become a reality. There is the promise of future removals even if this is only imagined.
Insurance retreat in residential properties from future sea level rise in Aotearoa New Zealand, Storey et al., Climatic Change:
How will the increased frequency of coastal inundation events induced by sea level rise impact residential insurance premiums, and when would insurance contracts be withdrawn? We model the contribution of localised sea level rise to the increased frequency of coastal inundation events. Examining four Aotearoa New Zealand cities, we combine historical tide-gauge extremes with geo-located property data to estimate the annual expected loss from this hazard, for each property, in order to establish when insurance retreat is likely to occur. We find that as sea level rise changes the frequency of inundation events, 99% of properties currently within 1% AEP coastal inundation zones can expect at least partial insurance retreat within a decade (with less than 10 cm of sea level rise). Our modelling predicts that full insurance retreat is likely within 20–25 years, with timing dependent on the property’s elevation and distance from the coast, and less intuitively, on the tidal range in each location.
A bibliometric and topic analysis of climate justice: Mapping trends, voices, and the way forward, Parsons et al., Climate Risk Management:
Our results show that the field of climate justice has grown exponentially from less than 5 papers annually between 1997 and 2005, to around 200 papers annually in recent years. This growth has seen a diversification of research themes with an increase in papers around the topics of health, vulnerability and adaptation, and policy and activism. There has been a consistent backdrop of publications around the topics of sustainable development and policy, and international relations and carbon emissions. Other prominent topics in the literature include education and food security, and human rights and Indigenous people. The field has moved from theoretical research to examining actual examples of climate injustices, with an increased diversification of topics.
From this week’s government/NGO section:
The next frontier for climate change science. Insights from the authors of the IPCC 6th assessment report on knowledge gaps and priorities for research, Bednar-Friedl et al., Directorate-General for Research and Innovation (European Commission) (pdf)
As climate change impacts intensify globally in both frequency and magnitude and with scientific consensus on what is yet to come if the world fails to act, the imperative to step up our collective response has never been more pressing. By providing the knowledge necessary to formulate effective mitigation and adaptation strategies, climate science serves as a critical enabler of climate action and a vital input to evidence-based policymaking. Bridging the knowledge gaps in climate change research is crucial for guiding the transition toward a low-carbon climate-resilient future, fostering consensus and alliances, empowering global cooperation, and mobilizing stakeholders across society. The authors draw attention to where additional research is required to effectively and adequately address climate change, aiming to inform future calls under the EU Horizon Europe R&I Programme and beyond.
Climate Transition Mismatch. Thought Leadership, Greenwashing, Transparency & Traceability, Ion Visinovschi and John Willis, Planet Tracker (pdf)
Company membership in trade associations has emerged as a critical area of concern, particularly when corporate management teams claim to be supportive of lowering their carbon footprint but are members of associations that appear to be at odds with the goals set out in the Paris Agreement. The authors urge corporations to reassess their affiliations with industry associations that diverge from their stated environmental objectives.
153 articles in 72 journals by 955 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
Contrasting Responses of Land Surface Temperature and Soil Temperature to Forest Expansion During the Dormant Season on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Qu et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2023jd039595
European Summer Wet-Bulb Temperature: Spatiotemporal Variations and Potential Drivers, Ma et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0420.1
Even cooler insights: On the power of forests to (water the Earth and) cool the planet, Ellison et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.17195
Intensification of daily tropical precipitation extremes from more organized convection, Bao et al., Science Advances Open Access pdf 10.1126/sciadv.adj6801
Roles of Thermal Forced and Eddy-Driven Effects in the Northward Shifting of the Subtropical Westerly Jet Under Recent Climate Change, Sheng et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jd039937
Observations of climate change, effects
20th Century Warming in the Western Florida Keys Was Dominated by Increasing Winter Temperatures, Flannery et al., Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology Open Access 10.1029/2023pa004748
Detecting the human fingerprint in the summer 2022 western–central European soil drought, Schumacher et al., Earth System Dynamics Open Access 10.5194/esd-15-131-2024
Enhanced North Pacific Victoria mode in a warming climate, Ji et al., npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41612-024-00599-0
Long-Term Trends in Ice Fog Occurrence in the Fairbanks, Alaska, Region Based on Airport Observations, Hartl et al., Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1175/jamc-d-22-0190.1
Rockfall from an increasingly unstable mountain slope driven by climate warming, Stoffel et al., Nature Geoscience Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41561-024-01390-9
Summer heatwaves on the Baltic Sea seabed contribute to oxygen deficiency in shallow areas, Safonova et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01268-z
Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects
Airborne lidar measurements of atmospheric CO2 column concentrations to cloud tops made during the 2017 ASCENDS/ABoVE campaign, Mao et al., Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Open Access 10.5194/amt-17-1061-2024
Analysing direct air capture for enabling negative emissions in Germany: an assessment of the resource requirements and costs of a potential rollout in 2045, Block et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2024.1353939
Development of the tangent linear and adjoint models of the global online chemical transport model MPAS-CO2 v7.3, Zheng et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-1543-2024
Evaluation of atmospheric indicators in the Adriatic coastal areas: a multi-hazards approach for a better awareness of the current and future climate, Fedele et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2024.1330299
The GERB Obs4MIPs Radiative Flux Dataset: A new tool for climate model evaluation, Russell et al., Open Access 10.5194/essd-2024-4
Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects
Analyzing future marine cold spells in the tropical Indian Ocean: Insights from a regional Earth system model, Dinesh et al., Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 10.1002/qj.4664
Geographic range of plants drives long-term climate change, Gurung et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-46105-1
Interannual variability of diurnal temperature range in CMIP6 projections and the connection with large-scale circulation, Wang et al., Climate Dynamics 10.1007/s00382-024-07107-3
No Emergence of Deep Convection in the Arctic Ocean Across CMIP6 Models, Heuzé & Liu Liu, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl106499
Tropical Cyclone Changes in Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Projections: A Study Over the Shanghai Region, Buonomo et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jd038508
Uncertainty assessment of future climate change using bias-corrected high-resolution multi-regional climate model datasets over East Asia, Park et al., Climate Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-023-07006-z
Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection
A Perspective on the Future of CMIP, Stevens, AGU Advances Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023av001086
Climate change projections for building energy simulation studies: a CORDEX-based methodological approach to manage uncertainties, Coronato et al., Climatic Change 10.1007/s10584-024-03710-9
Comparison of conventional and machine learning methods for bias correcting CMIP6 rainfall and temperature in Nigeria, Tanimu et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-024-04888-9
Developing intelligent Earth System Models: An AI framework for replacing sub-modules based on incremental learning and its application, Mu et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107306
Dynamical Downscaling of Climate Simulations in the Tropics, Liu et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl105733
On the impact of net-zero forcing Q-flux change, Eiselt & Graversen Graversen, Climate Dynamics Open Access 10.1007/s00382-024-07117-1
On the sensitivity of fire-weather climate projections to empirical fire models, Tory et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.109928
Projections of the North Atlantic warming hole can be constrained using ocean surface density as an emergent constraint, Park & Yeh, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01269-y
The Physics behind Precipitation Onset Bias in CMIP6 Models: The Pseudo-Entrainment Diagnostic and Trade-Offs between Lapse Rate and Humidity, Emmenegger et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0227.1
Towards an advanced representation of precipitation over Morocco in a global climate model with resolution enhancement and empirical run-time bias corrections, Balhane et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.8405
Cryosphere & climate change
An Analytical Model of Active Layer Depth Under Changing Ground Heat Flux, Zhu et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jd039453
Antarctic-wide ice-shelf firn emulation reveals robust future firn air depletion signal for the Antarctic Peninsula, Dunmire et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01255-4
Large-scale drivers of the exceptionally low winter Antarctic sea ice extent in 2023, Ionita, Frontiers in Earth Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/feart.2024.1333706
Modeling a Century of Change: Kangerlussuaq Glacier’s Mass Loss From 1933 to 2021, Lippert et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl106286
Permafrost Carbon: Progress on Understanding Stocks and Fluxes Across Northern Terrestrial Ecosystems, Treat et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jg007638
Subsurface warming in the Antarctica’s Weddell Sea can be avoided by reaching the 2?C warming target, Teske et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01238-5
The linkage between autumn Barents-Kara sea ice and European cold winter extremes, Cai et al., Open Access pdf 10.21203/rs.3.rs-2142748/v1
Sea level & climate change
Compounding effects of changing sea level and rainfall regimes on pluvial flooding in New York City, Ghanbari et al., Natural Hazards Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11069-024-06466-8
Reconstruction of hourly coastal water levels and counterfactuals without sea level rise for impact attribution, Treu et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access pdf 10.5194/essd-16-1121-2024
Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry
Global and regional temperature change over the past 4.5 million years, Clark et al., Science 10.1126/science.adi1908
Southern Ocean Biological Pump Role in Driving Holocene Atmospheric CO2: Reappraisal, Riechelson et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2023gl105569
Biology & climate change, related geochemistry
Arctic sea ice retreat fuels boreal forest advance, Dial et al., Science 10.1126/science.adh2339
Climate-driven differences in flow regimes alter tropical freshwater ecosystems with consequences for an endemic shrimp, Tingley et al., Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.3389/fevo.2024.1182021
Climate-limited vegetation change in the conterminous United States of America, Parra & Greenberg, Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17204
Early warning indicators capture catastrophic transitions driven by explicit rates of environmental change, Arumugam et al., Ecology Open Access pdf 10.1002/ecy.4240
Exposure of African ape sites to climate change impacts, Kiribou et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000345
Feedbacks Between Estuarine Metabolism and Anthropogenic CO2 Accelerate Local Rates of Ocean Acidification and Hasten Threshold Exceedances, Pacella et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 10.1029/2023jc020313
Flexible foraging behaviour increases predator vulnerability to climate change, Gauzens et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-024-01946-y
Genomic architecture controls multivariate adaptation to climate change, Terasaki Hart & Wang, Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.17179
Global change progressively increases foliar nitrogen–phosphorus ratios in China’s subtropical forests, Lai et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17201
Global Vegetation-Temperature Sensitivity and Its Driving Forces in the 21st Century, Yuxi et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2022ef003395
Helminth ecological requirements shape the impact of climate change on the hazard of infection, Vanalli et al., Open Access pdf 10.1101/2023.09.11.557173
Increased leaf area index and efficiency drive enhanced production under elevated atmospheric [CO2] in a pine-dominated stand showing no progressive nitrogen limitation, Palmroth et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.17190
Lawns and meadows in urban green space – A comparison from greenhouse gas, drought resilience and biodiversity perspectives, Trémeau et al., Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-2023-107
Long-term drought promotes invasive species by reducing wildfire severity, Kimball et al., Ecology Open Access 10.1002/ecy.4265
Marine protected areas promote stability of reef fish communities under climate warming, Benedetti-Cecchi et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-44976-y
Plant canopies promote climatic disequilibrium in Mediterranean recruit communities, Perez?Navarro et al., Ecology Letters Open Access 10.1111/ele.14391
Relationship between extreme climate and vegetation in arid and semi-arid mountains in China: A case study of the Qilian Mountains, Liu et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.109938
Rising minimum temperatures contribute to 50 years of occupancy decline among cold-adapted Arctic and boreal butterflies in North America, Shirey et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17205
Simulated Future Shifts in Wildfire Regimes in Moist Forests of Pacific Northwest, USA, Dye et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 10.1029/2023jg007722
Soil warming increases the number of growing bacterial taxa but not their growth rates, Metze et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adk6295
Spatio-temporal integrated Bayesian species distribution models reveal lack of broad relationships between traits and range shifts, Wiethase et al., Global Ecology and Biogeography Open Access pdf 10.1111/geb.13819
Stream Nitrogen Concentrations Across Arctic Vegetation Gradients, Holmboe et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles Open Access 10.1029/2023gb007840
The interacting effect of climate change and herbivory can trigger large-scale transformations of European temperate forests, Dobor et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.17194
The thermal breadth of temperate and tropical freshwater insects supports the climate variability hypothesis, Dewenter et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.10937
The tolerance of two marine diatoms to diurnal pH fluctuation under dynamic light condition and ocean acidification scenario, Shang et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106425
Unraveling the multifaceted effects of climatic factors on mountain pine beetle and its interaction with fungal symbionts, Zaman et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17207
GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry
A novel ensemble approach for road traffic carbon emission prediction: a case in Canada, Liu et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-024-04561-1
Atmospheric CO2 exchanges measured by eddy covariance over a temperate salt marsh and influence of environmental controlling factors, Mayen et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-21-993-2024
Carbon Emissions From Chinese Inland Waters: Current Progress and Future Challenges, Yang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences Open Access 10.1029/2023jg007675
Characterization of carbon fluxes, stock and nutrients in the sacred forest groves and invasive vegetation stands within the human dominated landscapes of a tropical semi-arid region, Akil Prasath et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-024-55294-0
Constraining biospheric carbon dioxide fluxes by combined top-down and bottom-up approaches, Upton et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-24-2555-2024
Environmental and Management Drivers of Carbon Dioxide and Methane Emissions From Actively-Extracted Peatlands in Alberta, Canada, Hunter et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jg007738
Field experiments show no consistent reductions in soil microbial carbon in response to warming, Yue et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-45508-4
Human population density and blue carbon stocks in mangroves soils, Chien et al., Environmental Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1088/1748-9326/ad13b6
Machine learning reveals regime shifts in future ocean carbon dioxide fluxes inter-annual variability, Couespel et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01257-2
Peatlands Versus Permafrost: Landscape Features as Drivers of Dissolved Organic Matter Composition in West Siberian Rivers, Starr et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 10.1029/2023jg007797
Quantification of the Airborne Fraction of Atmospheric CO2 Reveals Stability in Global Carbon Sinks Over the Past Six Decades, Bennett et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jg007760
Quantifying mangrove carbon assimilation rates using UAV imagery, Blanco-Sacristán et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-024-55090-w
Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001
The Greenhouse Gas Budget of Terrestrial Ecosystems in East Asia Since 2000, Wang et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles Open Access 10.1029/2023gb007865
The Impact of Recent Climate Change on the Global Ocean Carbon Sink, Bunsen et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl107030
CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering
A case for promoting negative emission technologies: learning from renewable energy support, Meissner, Carbon Management Open Access pdf 10.1080/17583004.2024.2319787
Assessing the Electrochemical CO2 Reduction Reaction Performance Requires More Than Reporting Coulombic Efficiency, Izadi et al., Advanced Energy and Sustainability Research 10.1002/aesr.202400031
Enhanced weathering in the US Corn Belt delivers carbon removal with agronomic benefits, Beerling et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2319436121
Grappling with a sea change: Tensions in expert imaginaries of marine carbon dioxide removal, Nawaz & Lezaun, Global Environmental Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102806
Paulownia trees as a sustainable solution for CO2 mitigation: assessing progress toward 2050 climate goals, Ghazzawy et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1307840
Decarbonization
Integrating variable renewable energy and diverse flexibilities: Supplying carbon-free energy from a wind turbine to a data center, Kontani & Tanaka, Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.101843
Is small or big solar better for the environment? Comparative life cycle assessment of solar photovoltaic rooftop vs. ground-mounted systems, , A Mathematical Introduction to Wavelets Open Access 10.1017/cbo9780511623790.002
Geoengineering climate
Side Effects of Sulfur-Based Geoengineering Due To Absorptivity of Sulfate Aerosols, Wunderlin et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2023gl107285
Aerosols
Anthropogenic aerosols mask increases in US rainfall by greenhouse gases, Risser et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-45504-8
Climate change communications & cognition
Academic capture in the Anthropocene: a framework to assess climate action in higher education, Lachapelle et al., Climatic Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-024-03696-4
Active, dutiful and pragmatic: practicing green citizenship in urban China, Zhan, Environmental Politics Open Access 10.1080/09644016.2024.2319520
Three Key Dimensions of Climate Change from Opinion News in a Malaysian Newspaper, Mohd Nor et al., Environmental Communication 10.1080/17524032.2024.2319804
Visualization of global research trends and future research directions of greenwashing by using bibliometric analysis, Gupta & Singh, Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-024-04548-y
Visualizing Hope: Investigating the Effect of Public Art on Risk Perception and Awareness of Climate Adaptation, Mah et al., Weather, Climate, and Society 10.1175/wcas-d-23-0081.1
Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change
A systematic review of recent estimations of climate change impact on agriculture and adaptation strategies perspectives in Africa, Kone et al., Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 10.1007/s11027-024-10115-7
Adaptation technologies for climate-smart agriculture: a patent network analysis, Tey et al., Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 10.1007/s11027-024-10111-x
Carbon stocks and effluxes in mangroves converted into aquaculture: a case study from Banten province, Indonesia, Royna et al., Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.3389/fevo.2024.1340531
Continental lowlands face rising crop vulnerability: structural change in regional climate sensitivity of crop yields, Hungary (Central and Eastern Europe), 1921–2010, Pinke et al., Regional Environmental Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10113-024-02192-w
Coping or adapting strategies? The importance of distinguishing between climatic shift and drought events for proper management of the pastoral systems in Northern Patagonia, Anderson, Nature Open Access 10.1038/350290a0
Enhanced weathering in the US Corn Belt delivers carbon removal with agronomic benefits, Beerling et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2319436121
Exploring differences of farmers’ intention to adopt agricultural low-carbon technologies: an application of TPB and VBN combination, Yang et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-04342-2
Farmers’ adoption of multiple climate-smart agricultural technologies in Ghana: determinants and impacts on maize yields and net farm income, Asante et al., Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11027-024-10114-8
Flood risk assessment and adaptation under changing climate for the agricultural system in the Ghanaian White Volta Basin, Smits et al., Climatic Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-024-03694-6
From climate perceptions to actions: A case study on coffee farms in Ethiopia, Gomm et al., Ambio Open Access pdf 10.1007/s13280-024-01990-0
Maize yield under a changing climate in Uganda: long-term impacts for climate smart agriculture, Zizinga et al., Regional Environmental Change 10.1007/s10113-024-02186-8
The animal agriculture industry, US universities, and the obstruction of climate understanding and policy, Morris & Jacquet, Climatic Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-024-03690-w
Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change
Anthropogenic Influence on 2022 June Extreme Rainfall over the Pearl River Basin, Liu et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-23-0132.1
Anthropogenic Influences on Extremely Persistent Seasonal Precipitation in Southern China during May–June 2022, Sheng et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-23-0137.1
Assessment of mean precipitation and precipitation extremes in Iran as simulated by dynamically downscaled RegCM4, Zarrin & Dadashi-Roudbari, Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2024.101452
Distinctive changes of Asian–African summer monsoon in interglacial epochs and global warming scenario, Wang et al., Climate Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-023-07013-0
Distribution characteristics of drought and flood hazards in northern China against the background of climate warming, Wang & Zhang, Natural Hazards 10.1007/s11069-024-06468-6
Flood risk assessment and adaptation under changing climate for the agricultural system in the Ghanaian White Volta Basin, Smits et al., Climatic Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-024-03694-6
Future risk of decadal megadrought events over eastern China based on IPO-constrained precipitation, Qin et al., Climate Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-023-07018-9
Historical climate impact attribution of changes in river flow and sediment loads at selected gauging stations in the Nile basin, Nkwasa et al., Climatic Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-024-03702-9
Spatial-temporal patterns of land surface evapotranspiration from global products, Tang et al., Remote Sensing of Environment 10.1016/j.rse.2024.114066
Climate change economics
Although feasible, falling renewables costs might not benefit Bangladesh’s energy sector’s decarbonisation: Is this another ‘debt-fossil fuel production trap’?, Debnath & Mourshed, Energy for Sustainable Development Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101416
An outlook at the switch to renewable energy in emerging economies: The beneficial effect of technological innovation and green finance, Sampene et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114025
Does trade openness increase CO2 emissions in Africa? A revaluation using the composite index of Squalli and Wilson, Mignamissi et al., Environment Systems and Decisions Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10669-023-09962-7
Green finance, new infrastructure, and carbon emission performance in Chinese cities, Li et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1352869
The effects of energy consumption of alumina production in the environmental impacts using life cycle assessment, Sáez-Guinoa et al., The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11367-023-02257-8
Climate change mitigation public policy research
Actors, agency, and institutional contexts: Transition intermediation for low-carbon mobility transition, Nordt et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103707
Biochar carbon markets:A mitigation deterrence threat, Price et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103704
Defining national net zero goals is critical for food and land use policy, Bishop et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01275-0
Energy intensity, renewable energy, and air quality: fresh evidence from BIMSTEC countries through method of moments quantile model, Bilgili et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-024-04490-z
Estimating scope 3 greenhouse gas emissions through the shareholder network of publicly traded firms, Mejia & Kajikawa, Sustainability Science Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11625-023-01460-8
Impact of government subsidies on total factor productivity of energy storage enterprises under dual-carbon targets, Lin & Zhang, Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114046
Research status and trend prospects of the carbon cap-and-trade mechanism, Zhang et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-024-04607-4
Resolving energy policy failure: Introducing energy justice as the solution to achieve a just transition, Heffron & Soko?owski, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114042
The impact of technological progress and industrial structure optimization on manufacturing carbon emissions: a new perspective based on interaction, You et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-024-04531-7
Transition to sustainable hydrogen energy in Oman: implication for future socio-economic transformation and environmental well-being, Amoatey et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-024-04657-8
Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research
Assessment of the tropical cyclone-induced risk on offshore wind turbines under climate change, Wen et al., Natural Hazards 10.1007/s11069-023-06390-3
Incorporating indigenous knowledge systems-based climate services in anticipatory action in Zimbabwe: an ex-ante assessment, Dube et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2024.1301908
Insights intended to improve adaptation planning and reduce vulnerability at the local scale, Cáceres et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2024.1345921
Insurance retreat in residential properties from future sea level rise in Aotearoa New Zealand, Storey et al., Climatic Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-024-03699-1
Municipal perspectives on managed retreat and flood mitigation: A case analysis of Merritt, Canada after the 2021 British Columbia flood disaster, Cottar & Wandel, Climatic Change 10.1007/s10584-024-03707-4
Re-thinking new possibilities for urban climate resilience planning in Bangkok: Introducing adaptation pathways through a multidisciplinary design workshop, Nilubon & Laeni, Environmental Science & Policy 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103711
Research progress and prospects of urban resilience in the perspective of climate change, Wang et al., Frontiers in Earth Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/feart.2024.1247360
Roles and activities of local stakeholders facing Alpine permafrost warming: A comparative exploratory analysis of three contexts and networks of actors, Weissbrodt et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100591
The emerging “evident” role of climatic risk on migration: a study of four U.S. metropolitans, Hao & Wang, Climatic Change 10.1007/s10584-024-03687-5
Tropical cyclone risk assessment reflecting the climate change trend: the case of South Korea, Jung et al., Natural Hazards 10.1007/s11069-024-06428-0
Visiting urban green space as a climate-change adaptation strategy: Exploring push factors in a push–pull framework, Wong et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100589
Vulnerability locked in. On the need to engage the outside of the adaptation box, Teebken, Global Environmental Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102807
Climate change impacts on human health
Characterizing the effects of extreme heat events on all-cause mortality: A case study in Ahmedabad city of India, 2002–2018, Sharma et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.101832
Impact of population aging on future temperature-related mortality at different global warming levels, Chen et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-45901-z
Projected population exposure to heatwaves in Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, China, Dong et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-024-54885-1
Would future climate warming cause zoonotic diseases to spread over long distances?, Bu et al., PeerJ Open Access 10.7717/peerj.16811
Climate change & geopolitics
Conflict considerations in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change’s National Adaptation Plans, Remling & Meijer , Climate and Development Open Access pdf 10.1080/17565529.2024.2321156
The interaction of public–private partnership investment in energy and geopolitical risk in influencing carbon dioxide emissions in E7 countries, Chu et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-024-04590-w
Climate change impacts on human culture
Sustainability of international research: evidence from an H2020 European project, Fabiani et al., Sustainability Science Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11625-023-01421-1
Other
A bibliometric and topic analysis of climate justice: Mapping trends, voices, and the way forward, Parsons et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100593
Anthropogenic carbon pathways towards the North Atlantic interior revealed by Argo-O2, neural networks and back-calculations, Asselot et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-46074-5
Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives
A Perspective on the Future of CMIP, Stevens, AGU Advances Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023av001086
Editorial: The ecology, diversity and migration pattern of aquatic organisms in a changing climate, Habib et al., Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.3389/fevo.2024.1351858
Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change
Building Stronger Community Engagement in Hydrogen Hubs, Schomburg et al., EFI Foundation
The authors highlight the perspectives of individuals and groups affiliated with disadvantaged communities, tribes, labor, and environmental justice groups on hydrogen hubs. It reflects their preferred modes of engagement, attitudes toward hydrogen hubs, and perceptions of the Department of Energy’s community engagement processes. Communities generally agree on the preferred forms of engagement on Regional Clean Hydrogen Hubs development and on perceptions of hydrogen, including viewing hydrogen as a climate change solution. These data also underscore the importance of two-way communication. In an evolving industry such as hydrogen, a lack of communication, information, trust, or mutual understanding can hinder engagement.
Clean Investment in 2023: Assessing Progress in Electricity and Transport, Rhodium Group and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research
The Clean Investment Monitor tracks public and private investments in manufacturing and deployment of climate technologies in the United States. Through these data and analysis, the CIM provides insights into investment trends, the effects of federal and state policies, and on-the-ground progress in the U.S. towards net-zero greenhouse gas emissions.
The Socioeconomic Impact of Climate Change in Developing Countries in the Next Decades, Philip Kofi Adom, Center for Global Development
The author provides a discussion of future trends as established in the literature on the interaction between socioeconomic indicators and projected future climate change scenarios. It enhances an understanding of future predicted patterns of climate change effects in the coming decades and the need for climate-resilient interventions. There is a significant body of literature on climate impacts on GDP per capita and crop yield in developing countries. However, effects on farmland value, water resources, and energy security have received much less attention. Across sectors, countries, and regions, the most vulnerable groups were found to be disproportionately affected, and the impact is predicted to be larger in the long term than in the medium term. There are feasible adaptation and mitigation options, but these need to be developed and designed to reflect local peculiarities or contexts. The author there is a need for urgent actions to be undertaken, especially in the most vulnerable countries, if people are to stand a chance of averting or minimizing the menace of climate change in the future.
Taming wildfires in the context of climate change: The case of the United States, Orzechowski et al., Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
The frequency and severity of extreme wildfires are on the rise in the United States, causing unprecedented disruption and increasingly challenging the country’s capacity to contain losses and damages. These challenges are set to keep growing in the context of climate change, highlighting the need to scale up wildfire prevention and climate change adaptation. The authors provide an overview of the United States’ wildfire policies and practices and assesses the extent to which wildfire management in the country is evolving to adapt to growing wildfire risk under climate change.
Options to Enhance the Resilience of Federally Funded Flood Risk Management Infrastructure, Alfredo Gómez et al., Government Accountability Office
The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) is responsible for planning, designing, and constructing much of the nation’s federally funded flood risk management infrastructure—for example, levees, dams, floodwalls, floodgates, and hurricane barriers—that help protect communities from coastal storms and floods. Corps’ flood risk management infrastructure, such as levees, can be breached by flooding exacerbated by changes in the climate. The Corps has taken, and plans to take, actions to enhance the climate resilience of federally funded flood risk management infrastructure. The Corps has also taken steps to develop climate policies and plans, conduct research, and provide climate-related information and guidance for planning flood risk management infrastructure projects. Based on a review of relevant literature and interviews with knowledgeable stakeholders and Corps officials, GAO identified 14 options to further enhance the climate resilience of federally funded flood risk management infrastructure.
The next frontier for climate change science. Insights from the authors of the IPCC 6th assessment report on knowledge gaps and priorities for research, Bednar-Friedl et al., Directorate-General for Research and Innovation (European Commission)
As climate change impacts intensify globally in both frequency and magnitude and with scientific consensus on what is yet to come if the world fails to act, the imperative to step up our collective response has never been more pressing. By providing the knowledge necessary to formulate effective mitigation and adaptation strategies, climate science serves as a critical enabler of climate action and a vital input to evidence-based policymaking. Bridging the knowledge gaps in climate change research is crucial for guiding the transition toward a low-carbon climate-resilient future, fostering consensus and alliances, empowering global cooperation, and mobilizing stakeholders across society. The authors draw attention to where additional research is required to effectively and adequately address climate change, aiming to inform future calls under the EU Horizon Europe R&I Programme and beyond.
Generator Interconnection Scorecard. Ranking Interconnection Outcomes and Processes of the Seven U.S. Regional Transmission System Operators, Wilson et al., Advanced Energy United
Currently, over one million megawatts of generator and storage projects are actively seeking to connect to the U.S. transmission grid. The various grid interconnection processes across the nation have been slow and received criticism from a wide range of stakeholders for being dysfunctional. The 2024 Advanced Energy United Generator Interconnection Scorecard evaluates the outcomes and processes of the generator interconnection process across the seven U.S. regional grid operators (the RTOs/ISOs), finding some bright spots and room for significant improvement. The scorecard measures each RTO/ISO generator interconnection process using both qualitative and quantitative data. The analysis leverages interviews with interconnection customers and data furnished by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL). The authors measured each Region’s interconnection process on six dimensions: 1) Interconnection Process Results, 2) Pre-Queue Information, 3) Interconnection Process Design, 4) Assumptions, Criteria, and Replicability, 5) Availability of Interconnection Alternatives, and 6) Regional Transmission Planning.
Promoting Peace through Climate-resilient Food Security Initiatives, Simone Bunse and Caroline Delgado, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
The authors examine the interconnectedness of food insecurity, climate and environmental pressures, and violent conflict, proposing strategies to enhance peacebuilding within integrated climate-resilient food security interventions. They assert that collaborative, multisectoral programming among humanitarian, development, and peacebuilding stakeholders is essential to disrupt vicious circles of food insecurity, climate challenges, and conflict. Such programming should not only incorporate activities from the food security, climate adaptation, and peacebuilding fields but also seize opportunities to bolster the sustainability of food systems.
The Climate Costs and Economic Benefits of LNG Export, Minhong Xu and Max Sarinsky, Institute for Policy Integrity, New York University School of Law
The authors provide an analysis to support the Department of Energy’s (DOE) recent pause on discretionary export approvals so that DOE can update the underlying analyses for authorizations to facilitate a proper balancing of environmental and economic impacts. Using DOE’s own published studies, the authors compare the climate cost per unit of LNG export to the economic benefit measured using consumer welfare. They found that climate costs likely exceed economic benefits. While the precise difference depends on several factors— including the share of gas production that merely displaces fossil-fuel production from other sources, the economic value assigned to climate damages, and the adoption of carbon capture technology—gross climate damages greatly exceed economic benefits under all scenarios evaluated
Climate Transition Mismatch. Thought Leadership, Greenwashing, Transparency & Traceability, Ion Visinovschi and John Willis, Planet Tracker
Company membership in trade associations has emerged as a critical area of concern, particularly when corporate management teams claim to be supportive of lowering their carbon footprint but are members of associations that appear to be at odds with the goals set out in the Paris Agreement. The authors urge corporations to reassess their affiliations with industry associations that diverge from their stated environmental objectives.
Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions
We know it’s frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as “On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light” but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article’s relevance and importance.
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- The weekly New Research catch is checked against the Unpaywall database with accessible items being flagged. Especially for just-published articles this mechansim may fail. If you’re interested in an article title and it is not listed here as “open access,” be sure to check the link anyway.
How is New Research assembled?
Most articles appearing here are found via RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance.
Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database.
The objective of New Research isn’t to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers’ impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:
- Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a “yes” to this automatically.
- Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week’s 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.
A few journals offer public access to “preprint” versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. For some key journals this all the mention we’ll see in RSS feeds, so we include such items in New Research. These are flagged as “preprint.”
The section “Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives” includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of “perspectives,” observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.
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Journals covered
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